Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

[Mo Snow]

lol is GFS really going to win out?

[Stormlover74]

Euro looks awesome

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Mo Snow]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

 

so ~7PM turnover to sleet?

[SACRUS]

Euoro total QPF




Total snow (10:1)

[SACRUS]

00z euro ai aifs

Total QPF



Total Snow (10:1)

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro looks awesome

Early-mid afternoon big time fun, flip to sleet by 7pm-ish but by then the vast majority already fell. Euro got wetter too, went from about 0.9" liquid last run to 1.2 now.

[Mo Snow]

Love the 0z trends tonight. Let's see how 12Z holds. 

How's the radar looking to what models were forecasting as far as snow/sleet line?

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 00Z

NYC

QPF / Snow (Frz)

SREF (mean):  1.3 /  9.7
NAM:   1.2 / 4.7
ICON: 1.4 / 8.1
RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5
GFS: 1/3 / 11.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / 9.8
GEFS:   1.5 / 10.3
UKMET: 0.9 / 7.4
GGEM: 1.3 / 9.1
Euro : 1.2 / 10.2
Euro AI AIFS: 1,2 / 11.0
 

Updayted

[OborSnow]

If we stay snow till 7pm I can not see LI not getting 10-12inches


.

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

HeRPS never gives up that primary, but stays plenty cold from the Raritan on north; combined with the Euro holding just now and I’m feeling confident in the MMU area. 

[SnoSki14]

Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess 

6z HRRR showing that crazy front end dump. Big improvement over 0z

[Snowlover11]

We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, Mo Snow said:

lol is GFS really going to win out?

It might. But do not misinterpret what the Euro and to a greater extent other models have shown. The thrill of this event will be the heavy snow. When the dynamics begin to lift to our north and east some warmer air at upper levels causes some mixing and possibly a brief changeover Sunday night. But by the time this happens almost all the most significant precipitation most likely has fallen. Therefore the greater snow amounts we are seeing on the GFS and the operational Euro. Euro AI is probably overdoing the influx of warmer air at the upper levels as I suspect is NAM.

WX/PT

[Noteaster101]

2 hours ago, OborSnow said:

If we stay snow till 7pm I can not see LI not getting 10-12inches


.

I don’t think that’s happening with all the models showing, you might be lucky to squeeze out 3 to 5 inches on the island before an icy mix comes your way

[Noteaster101]

19 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days.

I’m here in Rockland County in a very sweet spot, the mixing shouldn’t affect my area too much, believe me, I’m ready!!

[TriPol]

3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow. 

[SnoSki14]

6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models 

[Snowlover11]

6z NAM a tad bit colder for those directly on the edge. Noise at this point.

 

[TriPol]

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, TriPol said:

06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island.

That's half an inch of sleet on LI which is nothing. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow. 

You're getting a little hyperbolic. Unless you're under age ten I believe we've all seen 2-3 inch rates per hour many times. It's great but not a once in a lifetime. Get a grip man you're becoming a NY post headline.