Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[OrangeCTWX]

My final guess is 5-7 south of NYC, 7-10 NYC metro, 9-12 coastal CT/Lower Hudson valley. Somewhere near Boston or Southern NH jackpots with 20+  . Hoping I bust low though and we all get crushed.  Fingers crossed.

[winterwx21]

Euro is aggressive in bringing in the mixing during the afternoon, but a nice thump before then. Hopefully the thump will be as advertised since the sleet will likely be here mid to late afternoon. I'd be happy with 7 or 8 before the mixing. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Precip is racing in. Faster start time =  more snow. Even if it changed over by 5 pm,that's 12 hours of heavy snow,if it started at 5am. Ill let everyone do their own math for shits and giggles. 

[Jt17]

Euro is aggressive in bringing in the mixing during the afternoon, but a nice thump before then. Hopefully the thump will be as advertised since the sleet will likely be here mid to late afternoon. I'd be happy with 7 or 8 before the mixing. 

Short term models presenting the possibility of the sleet line retreating after a few hours and bringing a few hours of good snow at the end. If it never turns back to snow it might finish with 7-9 inches, but if it does might get 10-12 inches


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[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Precip is racing in. Faster start time =  more snow. Even if it changed over by 5 pm,that's 12 hours of heavy snow,if it started at 5am. Ill let everyone do their own math for shits and giggles. 

Faster in, faster out.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, Snowguy66 said:

Totals might be great, but can't make out the geography. You need a better map of the area.


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1 hour ago, mriceyman said:

Where the hell you find that map to go over


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[Noteaster101]

39 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

My final guess is 5-7 south of NYC, 7-10 NYC metro, 9-12 coastal CT/Lower Hudson valley. Somewhere near Boston or Southern NH jackpots with 20+  . Hoping I bust low though and we all get crushed.  Fingers crossed.

The way things are looking we’re not even looking at that, I’m saying 3 to 5 in the city, less than that point south and east and even 30 miles west and north of New York City not that much more maybe 4 to 8 at best

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Noteaster101 said:

The way things are looking we’re not even looking at that, I’m saying 3 to 5 in the city, less than that point south and east and even 30 miles west and north of New York City not that much more maybe 4 to 8 at best

you're going to be wrong, nyc is getting way more

[Noteaster101]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you're going to be wrong, nyc is getting way more

Nobody wants to be more wrong than me, but I’m just seeing what I’m seeing, that warm air seems to be very aggressive on pretty much all the models, I mean, I’m here in Rockland County. You think I would be in a sweet spot but even here we’re gonna get shafted, maybe 6 inches at best before the sleet comes in, the New York City area points south and east, looking a lot less

[Snowlover11]

Upton readvised their warnings, not good if you want all snow. 
 

8-12 in the city/lower westchester

10-16 NW

[Jt17]

The way things are looking we’re not even looking at that, I’m saying 3 to 5 in the city, less than that point south and east and even 30 miles west and north of New York City not that much more maybe 4 to 8 at best

Hi-res models now in range thing that's ludicrous.


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[Noteaster101]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Hi-res models now in range thing that's ludicrous.


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Well, it’s pretty much now casting now and I’m just going on what the trend has been, don’t kill the messenger, believe me I want to be wrong, but you gotta tell it how it is when the models are showing how it’s gonna play out, that’s simple

[wthrmn654]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Upton readvised their warnings, not good if you want all snow. 
 

8-12 in the city/lower westchester

10-16 NW

That's about same as earlier total wise

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Well, it’s pretty much now casting now and I’m just going on what the trend has been, don’t kill the messenger, believe me I want to be wrong, but you gotta tell it how it is when the models are showing how it’s gonna play out, that’s simple

i'll come back to this conversation by tomorrow night! 

[RU848789]

Just for giggles and the people I share weather info with on a Rutgers sports board, I put together the data set below for New Brunswick, as most posters there are alums and/or live reasonably close by, so NB can be a decent surrogate for much of CNJ and for 95 from Trenton to NYC. Anyway it's total QPF, snow QPF from the 10:1 maps and ZR QPF and sleet QPF, from subtracting the snow/ZR from the QPF (and sleet depth at 3:1). I'll be curious to see which model at 0Z tonight did best, since I'm just 5 miles NE of NB. Thinking my 10.4" snow/sleet prediction is decent (NWS was 11.9" last night when I made my guesstimate and is now 10.1") and I still think (have for a couple of days) 8-12" for CNJ/EPA between 78 and 276/195, as well as the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC is a good call. Have a great storm all. I might paste all the snowfall maps too if I get motivated more. 

HRRR: 1.5" QPF - 11.6" of snow (1.16" QPF) - 0.12" ZR = 0.22" QPF as sleet or 0.66" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

NAM: 1.4" QPF - 5.6" of snow (0.56" QPF) - 0.02" ZR = 0.82" QPF as sleet or 2.46" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

ICON: 1.5" QPF - 6.3" of snow (0.63" QPF) - 0.00" ZR = 0.87" QPF as sleet or 2.61" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

RRFSA (new NAM): 1.3" QPF - 12.4" of snow (1.24" QPF) - 0.06" ZR = 0.0" QPF as sleet or 0.0" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

GDPS (CMC): 1.8" QPF - 9.5" of snow (0.95" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.85" QPF as sleet or 2.55" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

UK: 1.1" QPF - 10.2" of snow (1.02" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

Euro-AIFS: 1.3" QPF - 12.2" of snow (1.22" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

Euro: 1.2" QPF - 7.2" of snow (0.72" QPF) - 0.1" ZR (this was a guess as the Pivotal algo is suspect) = 0.38" QPF as sleet or 1.14" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)

[Jt17]

Well, it’s pretty much now casting now and I’m just going on what the trend has been, don’t kill the messenger, believe me I want to be wrong, but you gotta tell it how it is when the models are showing how it’s gonna play out, that’s simple

Well if the messenger is going to make stuff up and mislead people I'll at least call them out. No models show 3-5 for the city. The worst and clear outlier meaning the one you should be considering the least even show 6 inches on the very low end. On the high end some of the hi-res models are showing up to 15 inches with the sleet line retreating after about 2 hours back to snow. Most models including the out of range global models settle the middle around 9-11 inches. You can look through every model pivotal for free. Plus they've been trending snowier all day. Not the other way around!


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[psv88]

10 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Upton readvised their warnings, not good if you want all snow. 
 

8-12 in the city/lower westchester

10-16 NW

Same as it’s been all afternoon…literally unchanged 

[Noteaster101]

3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Well if the messenger is going to make stuff up and mislead people I'll at least call them out. No models show 3-5 for the city. The worst and clear outlier meaning the one you should be considering the least even show 6 inches on the very low end. On the high end some of the hi-res models are showing up to 15 inches with the sleet line retreating after about 2 hours back to snow. Most models including the out of range global models settle the middle around 9-11 inches. You can look through every model pivotal for free. Plus they've been trending snowier all day. Not the other way around!


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Listen, I hope you’re 110% right, I’m just seeing what I’m seeing, and it doesn’t look good

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro is aggressive in bringing in the mixing during the afternoon, but a nice thump before then. Hopefully the thump will be as advertised since the sleet will likely be here mid to late afternoon. I'd be happy with 7 or 8 before the mixing. 

Almost every model has us mix between 1 and 2 now but we get 6-7" before that and then of course whatever sleet we get on top which should be heavy for at least 3 or 4 hours

[Noteaster101]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Almost every model has us mix between 1 and 2 now but we get 6-7" before that and then of course whatever sleet we get on top which should be heavy for at least 3 or 4 hours

I think 6 or 7 inches is over aggressive, we got to hope that it snows like there is no tomorrow to get that accumulation because it’s looking more and more like the change over is coming quicker and quicker, I’ll sign up right now for 3 to 5 inches in the city and 6 to 8 in my area here in  Rockland county and  points north and west before the changeover

[TriPol]

I don't think NYC gets away from this without a foot of snow. I don't think we ever changeover to completely 100% sleet or freezing rain. Could we get some? Of course. But we still get snow with it. That's just my uneducated guess. When it snows, it snows HARD. All we need is six hours of 2 inches per hour.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Noteaster101 said:

I think 6 or 7 inches is over aggressive, we got to hope that it snows like there is no tomorrow to get that accumulation because it’s looking more and more like the change over is coming quicker and quicker, I’ll sign up right now for 3 to 5 inches in the city and 6 to 8 in my area here in  Rockland county and  points north and west before the changeover

I'm going by what every model shows even the nam through 18z

[Jt17]

I think 6 or 7 inches is over aggressive, we got to hope that it snows like there is no tomorrow to get that accumulation because it’s looking more and more like the change over is coming quicker and quicker, I’ll sign up right now for 3 to 5 inches in the city and 6 to 8 in my area here in  Rockland county and  points north and west before the changeover

This is false. Stop trolling.


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[Stormlover74]

Apparently the hrrr is really busting badly down south. Not doing anything in places it had heavy precip and the mix line is further north into VA than depicted

Anyway not going to worry about it now. Trying to get some sleep

https://x.com/efisherwx/status/2015293924080840932?s=46

[Noteaster101]

6 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

This is false. Stop trolling.


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I’m not trolling, actually Snow lover who just posted right now says pretty much the same thing I’m saying, I’m not trolling and believe me. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I’m wrong.

[Noteaster101]

1 minute ago, Noteaster101 said:

I’m not trolling, actually Storm lover who just posted right now says pretty much the same thing I’m saying, I’m not trolling and believe me. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I’m wrong.

 

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

I think 6 or 7 inches is over aggressive, we got to hope that it snows like there is no tomorrow to get that accumulation because it’s looking more and more like the change over is coming quicker and quicker, I’ll sign up right now for 3 to 5 inches in the city and 6 to 8 in my area here in  Rockland county and  points north and west before the changeover

You're simply trolling.  Look at my post on the model stats for New Brunswick, which should get a little less snow/more sleet than NYC.  The lowest of 8 models at 0Z was 5.6" and the average was around 9" with 1 to maybe 2" of sleet on top and a glaze of ice.  For NB. 

[Mo Snow]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Apparently the hrrr is really busting badly down south. Not doing anything in places it had heavy precip and the mix line is further north into VA than depicted

Anyway not going to worry about it now. Trying to get some sleep

https://x.com/efisherwx/status/2015293924080840932?s=46

Whoa. Where did all the moisture go? 

 

Pretty major difference there

[Noteaster101]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

You're simply trolling.  Look at my post on the model stats for New Brunswick, which should get a little less snow/more sleet than NYC.  The lowest of 8 models at 0Z was 5.6" and the average was around 9" with 1 to maybe 2" of sleet on top and a glaze of ice.  For NB. 

Listen, I hope you’re right, I’m just going on latest models, Upton just lowered amounts, the ice/snow line is now farther north than anticipated, this is what I’m just going on, so I hope you’re 110% right

[Snowlover11]

Can we not bitch and moan on every little thing? We are 5-7 hours away from game time.