1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Probably meaningless, but the Euro says I should be 31 right now, I'm 26. The 18z HRRR that just initialized off last hour is close, showing me at 27 at this hour, but the HRRR two hours ago was 3-4 degrees warm looking out to 2am. I'm basically 4-5 degrees cooler than all other modeling.

Have you read MRX 1am AFD..almost sounds like south of 40 in the valley will be lucky to get a WWA. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Have you read MRX 1am AFD..almost sounds like south of 40 in the valley will be lucky to get a WWA. 

I haven't looked. 

[Scottie16]

Have you read MRX 1am AFD..almost sounds like south of 40 in the valley will be lucky to get a WWA. 

They made that mistake 2 years ago.


.

[Scottie16]

HHHR is impressive for the forum. Another trend south mostly and temp profiles are colder.

I’m currently at 29 imby.


.

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Scottie16 said:

They made that mistake 2 years ago.


.

Think they have removed the ice accumulation from your point forecast.

[John1122]

My forecast says snow likely, moderate snow accumulation Saturday, high near 32, sat night snow likely, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, changing to all freezing rain after midnight, moderate snow accumulation, low near 24, it doesn't mention ice accumulation totals at all.

[Stovepipe]

So the banana highs are just too wide and weaker and that's why the low cuts up through TN on higher res models?  I'm trying to understand the basics here.  Ending the event on rain and a squall line is just wild to me considering what we've been watching on the models all week.  Granted, I'm glad the heavy rain can wash away all the ice and prevent hardships, even if it hurts my inner weenie.

Edit:  Looking at the 06z NAM.

[John1122]

The GFS gives me a foot at 06z.

[BlunderStorm]

9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS gives me a foot at 06z.

Likewise. Yeah it's closer to its 18z solution. We can still benefit from ticks esp considering we're not escaping without ZR.

[BuCoVaWx]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS gives me a foot at 06z.

It gives me 15". I would be very happy if I received half of that total. The 06z NAM gives me no snow, but 1.5" of ZR. Who knows what's going to happen at this point.

[John1122]

The RAP gives me around 4-5 inches, plus lots of sleet and zr. It has the 1.5 inches of snow line down to 40 in Knoxville.

[John1122]

The RAP is an absolute crusher ice storm for all of Tennessee except one county in Southern Middle.  Knoxville is bullseyed with 1.46 inches of qpf as zr. 

[John1122]

The RGEM has extended it's snow line up into my area across that it had been showing across west and middle Tennessee. It has 4-5 inches over me and nearly 2 inches down to Knoxville now. Some of it falls after the lp passes.

[John1122]

The 3k NAM drops over two inches of zr over Holston.

[John1122]

My forecast now calls for 2-4 inches of snow, plus .2-.4 zr. No warning issued though.

[John1122]

MRX Snow/Ice maps. They apparently see the downslope and cold banking along the Plateau. You can look at this and probably guess Advisory vs Warning if they ever actually get around to it. 

 

[BlunderStorm]

Marginal improvements in snow on the EURO for upper mid TN and KY-VA border counties with the initial thump. Backend flakes still a no show.

[Mrwolf1972]

So every model has central valley with. 25 to. 50 ice but still no updated advisory. 

[bearman]

One thing that will help with Ice is the current warm ground temps.  I have seen heavy rain falling into temps in the low 20s and none of the ice accumulating on the roads. I remember being shocked at how it just refused to build up where the tires of cars made contact with the road. Of course, bridges and overpasses had patches, Because they had not been frozen before the onset of the freezing rain the falling precipitation and action of the tires friction kept the roads free of ice. This may help us in the East Tennessee Valley. NOT SAYING IT WILL NOT BE DANGEROUS BUT IT MAY HELP.

[RHiggins]

y'all making the teachers in Knoxville nervous about having school on Monday lol

[TellicoWx]

50 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX Snow/Ice maps. They apparently see the downslope and cold banking along the Plateau. You can look at this and probably guess Advisory vs Warning if they ever actually get around to it. 

 

I honestly feel for them, counties with I75 from McMinn north are a coin flip on that map (ISW vs WWA). 

[fountainguy97]

16 minutes ago, bearman said:

One thing that will help with Ice is the current warm ground temps.  I have seen heavy rain falling into temps in the low 20s and none of the ice accumulating on the roads. I remember being shocked at how it just refused to build up where the tires of cars made contact with the road. Of course, bridges and overpasses had patches, Because they had not been frozen before the onset of the freezing rain the falling precipitation and action of the tires friction kept the roads free of ice. This may help us in the East Tennessee Valley. NOT SAYING IT WILL NOT BE DANGEROUS BUT IT MAY HELP.

It is supposed to be very cold tonight.  I dumped ice from a party Sunday night on my yard. It's still here today.  
 

But the ground won't be a HARD freeze. So you are probably right.  
 

I think most areas will get nearly to the point of big problems but then flip to rain.  I anticipate that to be a theme maybe even in NC too.

[GBOVolz]

y'all making the teachers in Knoxville nervous about having school on Monday lol

Which school? I work for KCS


.

[GBOVolz]

It is supposed to be very cold tonight.  I dumped ice from a party Sunday night on my yard. It's still here today.  
 
But the ground won't be a HARD freeze. So you are probably right.  
 
I think most areas will get nearly to the point of big problems but then flip to rain.  I anticipate that to be a theme maybe even in NC too.

Yeah I’ve got a wheelbarrow with water in it and it’s still frozen. It’s in the shade but a lot of roads are in the shade


.

[TellicoWx]

Dont know who is over MRX social media page, but this is probably the most honest, direct answer, I think I've ever seen from them. You can kinda tell how stressful working in that office must be due to the microclimates of our region.

 

"Alright good morning everyone from the tired social media leader for this office. Last time I was on shift the models had a large snowstorm draped across the state but my senior forecaster with a few decades of experience had a word of caution "Yeah I've seen these shift north, got to be careful." 

Now that we're in a completely different situation, I think you're owed a couple of our ice/snow maps. I will preface this to say we're still very much not confident in this. Fairly confident we won't get surprise massive snowstorm, but ice forecasting is not fun and comes down to very exact temperature prediction, how warm/cold the air aloft is, rain rates, and more. The snow is complicated by how much sleet will eat the snow away, and if there's any significant backside snow Sunday night. 

With all that said, the places that are most likely to see ice, potentially over a 1/4 of an inch are the Cumberland Plateau, the higher elevations of Mowbray and Signal Mountains inching down into Hamilton County, far northern and northeastern TN into VA, and southwest NC, especially Clay County. 

Finally, if you're in the wind prone foothills, there may be a few gusts over 40 mph Saturday night. Two sides of that coin, not really beneficial to have winds shaking icy trees, but downslope winds tend to warm the air in the lower elevations."

[Tucker1027]

Interesting to see MRX drop ice totals…


.

[Carvers Gap]

I love this quote, "Luck cannot be part of your safety protocol."  

Modeling overnight looks relatively consistent to yesterday.  The 6z GFS has zero support so far.  Story continues to look like ice in the northern valley.

[fountainguy97]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I love this quote, "Luck cannot be part of your safety protocol."  

Modeling overnight looks relatively consistent to yesterday.  The 6z GFS has zero support so far.  Story continues to look like ice in the northern valley.

Absolutely. I'm prepared. And I don't want anyone to read my post and think we are fine. But I do think we manage this ok.  
 

But don't leave your safety up to "I think."  The chance alone is worth being ready.

[GBOVolz]

I would rather be told what I do not wanna hear then be told maybe it will, maybe it won’t and you’re left with knowing nothing.


.

[GBOVolz]

I know this is Captain obvious but just reminding everyone to fill up their vehicles, maybe even get a little extra in a can


.