1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

 

@Carvers Gap Full speed ahead!!

LOL.  That...is...a...winner!  

[Stovepipe]

4 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Let’s hope not @Stovepipeyou got something for this?

I'm just looking at the same stuff y'all are, hoping the GFS is closer to accurate.  That 18z run put about 4 inches of snow down at TYS before switching to half inch of freezing rain and then back to snow for 3 more inches.  That's with the cobb snow algorithm.  Temps in the upper 20s through all of it until crashing to zero Sunday night.  That frozen sandwich would be around for while.  Better than pure ice, and better than ending on rain!

[Matthew70]

Maybe the squirrel (GFS) finds a nut for once. 

[Tucker1027]

I just wentt back and looked at the forum for the storm last January and wish I didn't... it ends with 

"Looks like the dry Euro runs are going to verify here. Ironically it got onboard with 4+ inches here at the last minute. I'll be shocked if I get over 2".  The American models, barring a huge surprise, are going to be miserable failures."

[Matthew70]

The Euro 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

My current take:

The players:

 

The setting:

the game:

All in motion on the Euro

 

 

 

Comparison:

 

Euro trend:

 

Maybe all this amounts to is a headache for me in making all this, but I am little more optimistic than I was this time last night. 

 

 

 

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I just wentt back and looked at the forum for the storm last January and wish I didn't... it ends with 

"Looks like the dry Euro runs are going to verify here. Ironically it got onboard with 4+ inches here at the last minute. I'll be shocked if I get over 2".  The American models, barring a huge surprise, are going to be miserable failures."

Unfortunately, by the time this is said and done, it’ll be a line of severe storms

[Tucker1027]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

My current take:

The players:

 

The setting:

the game:

All in motion on the Euro

 

 

 

Comparison:

 

Euro trend:

 

Maybe all this amounts to is a headache for me in making all this, but I am little more optimistic than I was this time last night. 

 

 

 

Thank you for this! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think someone asked for the straight Euro OP run with precip types, so here you go. I made the gif slow so you could see the preicp types better 

[John1122]

The Euro may be right, but it's a mess. It's been different at 500mb every run since 12z yesterday. 

[Wurbus]

Are the models getting the baja low data from the hurricane aircraft at 06z or 12z tomorrow?

[Wurbus]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think someone asked for the straight Euro OP run with precip types, so here you go. I made the gif slow so you could see the preicp types better 

Thanks for sharing and also producing that comparison with the GFS and Euro 

[*Flash*]

1 minute ago, Wurbus said:

Thanks for sharing and also producing that comparison with the GFS and Euro 

I second the gratitude. As rough as that animation is for some, bisect TN southwest to northeast and the western half still gets a crushing wintry mix storm. The threat does not need to be downplayed.

[Tucker1027]

3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Are the models getting the baja low data from the hurricane aircraft at 06z or 12z tomorrow?

00z tonight per someone over at Southernwx 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And look, it could all be for nought, but I don't think we've seen the final result quite yet

 

 

The shortwave has a ways to go: 

 

and as you can see from my earlier post, models have struggled with how it arrives in the US. 

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think someone asked for the straight Euro OP run with precip types, so here you go. I made the gif slow so you could see the preicp types better 

Great. I managed to stay freezing rain basically the whole run. 

[Wurbus]

3 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

00z tonight per someone over at Southernwx 

Damn, I really need to get some sleep tonight lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Wurbus said:

Damn, I really need to get some sleep tonight lol

I had a dream about model runs last night. Probably need a break lol. 

[nrgjeff]

Chattanooga exit ramp is regular rain. Sure as hell isn't snow with these trends. NBM, EC and implied Euro AI is now less ice in Chatty. Looking at above freezing temps during the heaviest QPF. I'm looking hard locally for personal and work staffing decision.

Now, the rest of work by way of the rest of the service territory, looks pretty awful somewhere. Worst areas will be determined by lack of sleet (all FZRA) and of course QPF under the ice soundings. Some of Tenn could get some help from sleet. North Mississippi ice is lookin' rough.

I will log off before 00Z runs arrive. Might be up but I'll be watching basketball. Thursday morning I hope to add a last post. From there work will escalate.

[*Flash*]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I had a dream about model runs last night. Probably need a break lol. 

Thanks to Stovepipe's creative brilliance, I'm afreight of going to bed tonight. That Bam face can haunt for days. 

[brewman22001]

Thanks to Stovepipe's creative brilliance, I'm afreight of going to bed tonight. That Bam face can haunt for days. 

No Bam!! We need to see him wallow in defeat!! This storm has become personal lol


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[nrgjeff]

Oh goodness that's right! He was fading the South and cold. Well I think natural gas already crushed him if he's short. Storm track might be another story, but it won't fix their trading account. 

[Matthew70]

22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think someone asked for the straight Euro OP run with precip types, so here you go. I made the gif slow so you could see the preicp types better 

Well it was nice knowing everyone.  My house by that means I will be buried under ice. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

May not matter that much in the long run, buuuuttttttt:

 

 

 

 

[Reb]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

May not matter that much in the long run, buuuuttttttt:

 

 

 

 

This data will apparently be on both GFS and Euro 0z models. 

Come on GFS, make me proud to be an American 

[Matthew70]

Well just announced. ( Flash’s idea)

Bam is selling pillows!!!!

[Tucker1027]

May not matter that much in the long run, buuuuttttttt:
 
 
 

 

Hopefully they are seeding it for a southern storm


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[GBOVolz]

Sounds like Atl NWS isn’t buying the NW trends.

https://x.com/justinwx02/status/2014108839042322785?s=10


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[John1122]

I honestly wonder if the Canadians are cooperating with the Europeans on weather modeling and leaving us out in the proverbial cold. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, John1122 said:

I honestly wonder if the Canadians are cooperating with the Europeans on weather modeling and leaving us out in the proverbial cold. 

I've wondered that too the past couple of days.