January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS managed to clear the main failure scenario of keeping the SW too far back. Now we get to see how it handles the interaction with the open wave and NS which will be key in determining who gets the major snowstorm.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS puts some light stuff over the area by Saturday morning

Also had the bit of snow Friday for some of our southern parts.

Pulled back whatever triggered the bit of snow Saturday morning and is gearing up to smack us, I think. At least a strong jump.

[stormtracker]

Ok, light precip over the area at 108..heavies south and west...climb dammit

[jayyy]

More 500mb/h5 maps, fewer clown maps please! Still 4+ days out. Much rather be looking at the players that matter than the pretty snow maps

Also, AI GFS was much more than a bump north for our area. QPF jumped substantially.

[bncho]

Guys, might be a FOLKS

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS managed to clear the main failure scenario of keeping the SW too far back. Now we get to see how it handles the interaction with the open wave and NS which will be key in determining who gets the major snowstorm.

I like the sharpness in the n/s feature and the best energy being on the backside to possibly promote downstream phasing. 

[stormtracker]

114 next shade of green, but those darks are still just south...come on baby

[SnowenOutThere]

Need to see if we can pull off the phase here and get into some truly historic territory  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Guys, might be a FOLKS

Be careful..that light blue is....LIGHT

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

I hope not banter-ish but could someone describe in basic terms how the NC Piedmont AND DC areas score Warning+ criteria snow and minimal mixing? TY.


.

The surface temps will be WAAAY more than cold enough so that's not a concern here as currently indicated.  The key is to not have a warm layer aloft that would cause sleet or freezing rain.  Not sure of the NC Piedmont but for the DC area it's looking very unlikely that there will be any sleet/ice.

[DDweatherman]

H120 is going to be key for many…

[NorthArlington101]

Need to see if we can pull off the phase here and get into some truly historic territory  

Yep. This is looking like a sloppy phase. Upside is a fair bit higher than this run. And this run is still probably on the lower tier of the great runs we’ve had today.

[stormtracker]

It's going to be better than 12z for sure...just not sure it's going to be FOLKS worthy 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's going to be better than 12z for sure...just not sure it's going to be FOLKS worthy 

Relative to 12Z, it's FOLKS worthy!  But hell, that's a very low bar!  (Would a "Guys" be possible though?)

[DDweatherman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yep. This is looking like a sloppy phase. Upside is a fair bit higher than this run. And this run is still probably on the lower tier of the great runs we’ve had today.

I actually would lean towards reality ending up a pretty clean phase if we can get those pieces where this frame has them. Nice correction back in the right direction for the gfs. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

H120 is going to be key for many…

 

[grhqofb5]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Guys, might be a FOLKS

Yeah I agree. Frosty Oceanic Lateral Konvection Scenarios are tricky but great to track. I remember my first one in ‘68.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Relative to 12Z, it's FOLKS worthy!  But hell, that's a very low bar!  (Would a "Guys" be possible though?)

It's definitely good.   It's just hard telling QPF with these shitty maps.  I don't call it unless I'm 100% sure.

[Disc]

It's beyond folks-worthy across Central and Southern VA so far. Historic really. Widespread powder up to southern PA.

[JenkinsJinkies]

I’m not getting on board until it survives past the 96-84 hour mark which BAMwx described as a graveyard where similar storms have died.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's definitely good.   It's just hard telling QPF with these shitty maps.  I don't call it unless I'm 100% sure.

It’s a really nice course correction from 12z taking the mass fail scenario back to close to off table. Seeing its AI be way better at 18z also helps a whole lot.

[bncho]

GFS much quicker with the storm as well.

[stormtracker]

Wait a minute..might be adding more on, lol

Still going at 132

[SnowenOutThere]

These streams are so close but just refusing to interact so far. It's not squishing our storm too badly though so I don't hate it. 

[clskinsfan]

Welcome to the party GFS.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

At this point, it's just a relief to see the GFS make a big step back toward what essentially all other guidance is saying.

[stormtracker]

Oh man...this is pretty interesting.   still decent snows ongoing at 132 and more probably after that.  Don't know how that happened yet

[TSSN+]

0” to 8”+ back in one run. Model of consistency right here. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Does anyone have that site that the CMC runs on for 18z? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Welcome to the party GFS.