Brick Tamland Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSUGrad Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Google Weather on my Pixel... 30+ inches over two days in Raleigh. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Probably overdone, as usual with snow pack, but we have some sub zero lows for a lot of NC and for Northern SC Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I haven't seen anyone mention the UKMET yet, but it was a big hit today on 12z too. We will see if it follows up again tonight, but I cannot remember another time where pretty much every model showed such a similar situation 5-6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: I haven't seen anyone mention the UKMET yet, but it was a big hit today on 12z too. We will see if it follows up again tonight, but I cannot remember another time where pretty much every model showed such a similar situation 5-6 days out. Yes the UK was on its way to being a big one at 12z. Hopefully 0z is a big hit to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Dont look at the UK. Its ICE and Rain. To warm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GEFS is a solid hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 UK shows how it can go wrong. Little bit of SE Ridge and less blocking turns into cold rain and tears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 0z GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK shows how it can go wrong. Little bit of SE Ridge and less blocking turns into cold rain and tears Looks like the AI GFS tries to do the same thing. I don't buy the UKMET sending the low right up the Apps into a banana high setup like that. I've seen the models try do that many times over the years and typically what happens is it hits the wedge then comes down and around it or could Miller-B to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GEFS... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Euro AI also shows more of a cutter but strong CAD so lots of ice.. some of the models have trended towards dumping more cold in the west/midwest. That would not be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 24 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro AI also shows more of a cutter but strong CAD so lots of ice.. some of the models have trended towards dumping more cold in the west/midwest. That would not be ideal If the HP is actually at least close to as strong as the other models are showing, I don’t think the AI models will handle this one well. They tend to underestimate extreme anomalous lows/highs because there aren’t enough examples of them in their training data. The other models being physics based know that, while rare, 1050ish highs can absolutely happen this time of year. We need a combination of strong high pressure and a weak (but not too weak lol) overrunning type system. Any combination of weaker high or super amped up storm hurts us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Euro Ice storm all the way to Macon Ga and just inland from Charleston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Euro is later with cold push and quicker with precip. Massive ice/sleet storm for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Almost exactly like the AIFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Hopefully with 925's like this it will be more sleet than FZR. Not good when Euro has had ice for days and is in lock step with the AI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 And it's quicker coming in Friday night/Saturday am. Only 5 and a half days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Looks like the UKMET and the AIGFS are phasing too early over Arizona,giving this a chance to be amped up,delaying the cold press,and letting it cut. If its going to phase it needs to over around the Rio Grande like the 12z Euro.Or you miss the phase and get a storm with either shortwave. Just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Hard to be upset with where any of the major ensembles are at this point but clearly a number of scenarios ranging from cutter to varying degrees of snow and ice are on the table. Could be the first threat of several to close out the month as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 00z EPS ... Also appears to be a colder run than 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This might be a big dog…. Snow breaking out at 12z Saturday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 How reliable is the AIGFS when it comes to Qpf?? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 EPS came slightly south. In a good spot overall, with ice being the primary limiting factor for a higher end event for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z GEFS is a Big One. Especially just north from where the ICE line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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