January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[mstr4j]

Looks like the FV3 is putting down more moisture than either of the other high res models

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wake4est]

ICON & Canadian are sticking with higher qpfs and colder wejjj.

[olafminesaw]

[DTP]

1 minute ago, 1bert1 said:

Yeah, I am one county to the south of the ice storm warnings and Helene with 100+ mph wind gusts ravaged my area. I hate the idea that some people that faced Helene will have to deal with this 1.5 years later.

Just a fun (or not so fun) part of nature.  My parents (in Rock Hill) had trees coming down in the woods behind their house for 15-20 years after Hugo in 89'.  Some from ice storms, some from thunderstorms/high winds....you can also see several swaths where small tornados came through during the storm

[USCG RS]

For those who were asking WSW vs ISW, the warnings depend on the primary impact. If a snow and Ice mix is the impact then it's normally a WSW. If ice is the primary impact it's an ISW. There is some discretion, but this weekend is a good example. 

While it may snow/sleet 1-3", the main show is ice at 0.3-0.8". This is why an ISW was issued vs a WSW. 

[wake4est]

ICON has like 2" qpf in Wake County.

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON is a massive hit across the board 

[gwlee7]

Good morning from DFW.  Since I lived in Rocky Mount NC up until 2017, I still enjoy keeping up with the SE forum. 
 

We are at the very beginnings of the event here just beside the airport.  I work in Irving TX.  Currently around 49 * and light to moderate rain.  Temps aren't expected to be dropping here until early evening and overnight.  That said, the guy I pay attention to most on the TX weather thread on the Central/Western sub forum thinks we are in for a significant amount of sleet in the area.  
 

I will post again when things get interesting here.  I know there can be a correlation btw DFW and NC weather so it will be fun to see how that works. 
 

[olafminesaw]

Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip

[stormwatcherJ]

What's the ICON accuracy typically like at this range?

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

ICON is a massive hit across the board 

 

[USCG RS]

OK.. So for all facing a potential ice storm - I'm sure you have prepared but if you have not: a few things to consider. 

1) It is going to be BRUTALLY cold following the conclusion of this storm. If you do not have heat, your house will become cold, and quickly. Make sure you have plenty of layers. If you have a wooden fireplace, be stocked. If you have gas, even without electricity, you can use gas for some things. Sometimes an oven can turn on as well, depending on type. 

2) Downed power lines must be treated as live at all times. Even if all power is out, an improperly installed generator can back feed the grid and when it hits a transformer, it can be stepped up to relatively high voltages. 

3) Refrigerated foods can last to around 36 hours once the power is out and the refrigerator is not opened much. HOWEVER, if you can put ice in the refrigerator, the air tight seal combined with adding ice will help keep the refrigerator cold. Of course store ice is best, but if you can get some sleet, or even some chips of ice, it can help. Make sure food is covered and outside bins washed off before using or cooking to ensure against contamination. Also use judgement about where you take ice/snow/sleet from. But last resorts are last resorts 

4) IF we obtain a crippling amount of ice then expect impacts to linger for weeks, including potential loss of power, diminished or absent emergency services and impassable roads. 

5) If you have no heat whatsoever, you can use a vehicle to sit in. Some things to keep in mind, trees and power lines can fall at any time. Keep mind of where the vehicle is In relation. Use your judgement. Also, if in a garage, ensure the door is open if you are going to run the vehicle. If possible, have the tail pipe pointing out of where the garage door opens (ie don't back the vehicle in for this storm). In case anyone forgets, garage doors always have manual releases. Be mindful of your gas and ration as necessary. Turn the vehicle on, let it get warm and then stop running. As it gets colder, turn it back on. Again, judgement. 

Be safe out there. Hopefully we find a miracle way to warm up and/or miss the ice. Assuming not however, this storm must be treated as if we are going to get the worst of the potential impacts and prepare as such. If we don't, then good. If we do, at least be prepared as much as possible. 

 

[DTP]

19 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Good morning from DFW.  Since I lived in Rocky Mount NC up until 2017, I still enjoy keeping up with the SE forum. 
 

We are at the very beginnings of the event here just beside the airport.  I work in Irving TX.  Currently around 49 * and light to moderate rain.  Temps aren't expected to be dropping here until early evening and overnight.  That said, the guy I pay attention to most on the TX weather thread on the Central/Western sub forum thinks we are in for a significant amount of sleet in the area.  
 

I will post again when things get interesting here.  I know there can be a correlation btw DFW and NC weather so it will be fun to see how that works. 
 

There is a connection; i spent a large part of growing up in Plano- i had mentioned this in a earlier post about N Texas being a good place to monitor with regards to what happens during the initial part of the storm... so keep em' coming

[olafminesaw]

This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south

[olafminesaw]

Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH

[Brick Tamland]

GFS had sleet changing to freezing rain for NC. 

 

[Divine]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH

[wake4est]

GFS is 2.5" of sleet and 0.9" zr for Raleigh

[WinstonSalemArlington]

What is the chance a Cold Weather -Advisory will be issued? One was issued for the DMV region

[SEwakenosnowforu]

6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

GFS is 2.5" of sleet and 0.9" zr for Raleigh

I always he when people say Raleigh...because in weather terms that is always RDU (the airport) that is a world away from most of us.

[HKY_WX]

There will be a dry slot but I think it will stay mostly along the counties that border the SC/NC coast, maybe 2 counties inland. This happens a lot with systems that skirt along the coastline. The dry slot with winter SLP's tends to follow closely along/ahead of the SLP track.

[Blue Ridge]

Pour one out for our friends in northern Mississippi. This is a disaster in the making. (Ignore the header - this is total ice)

[HKY_WX]

HRRR lines up pretty well the GFS on a possible quick 1inch or 2 in the northern half of NC b/f the changeover.

 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

HRRR lines up pretty well the GFS on a possible quick 1inch or 2 in the northern half of NC b/f the changeover.

 

The RAP is similar as well!

[ADB83]

Brad Panovich 11 AM update 

[Brick Tamland]

RAP to 51

 

[stormwatcherJ]

So RAP, HRRR, GFS, and ICON are all bringing a couple inches of snow to northern NC. Keep that trend going!

[BornAgain13]

Just now, stormwatcherJ said:

So RAP, HRRR, GFS, and ICON are all bringing a couple inches of snow to northern NC. Keep that trend going!

Also the UK

[eyewall]

We just had a bit of sleet fall in Raleigh believe it or not. 

[wake4est]

Ukie with 1.8"qpf in Wake county