January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[BornAgain13]

Still a ways to go this week but 1 thing i dont like is the Euro AI and GFS AI cutting west of the apps and bringing more sleet/ZR than snow. Plenty cold at the surface but aloft that would make for more ice. 

[WXNewton]

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GEFS

6z GEFS temps through out the heart of the storm.

 

[WXNewton]

6z GEFS, 6hr precip. This gives you a good idea of precip location and movement.

 

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still a ways to go this week but 1 thing i dont like is the Euro AI and GFS AI cutting west of the apps and bringing more sleet/ZR than snow. Plenty cold at the surface but aloft that would make for more ice. 

I think at this point we still put 100% stock in ensembles and EPS and GEFS is keeping everything south. I'd like to see individual members if anyone has them.

[BornAgain13]

6z Euro AI is just to far north for snow on most of this board. Plenty of ice though taken literally 

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z Euro AI is just to far north for snow on most of this board. Plenty of ice though taken literally 

That would be devastating, most of the precip falls between 21-26 degrees. Pull for sleet if that's the case. All temps on all models during the heart of storm now are locked in to the low 20s. So temps seem to be one thing that is really starting to set in place. This seems to be a classic full on wedge and a lot of times those will get even stronger as the models get closer. Regardless the temps that are currently being modeled are something we have not seen in a long time with a potential storm coming in. 

[BornAgain13]

6z EURO  Snow/ICE Maps. Still going at the end of the run

[buckeyefan1]

16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z Euro AI is just to far north for snow on most of this board. Plenty of ice though taken literally 

This. It’s going to be an ice storm for someone. No sugar coating it. 

[olafminesaw]

The Euro precip type map on pivotal is calling this ZR, so just be aware that those freezing rain maps are pretty much completely useless

[BornAgain13]

6z EPS at the end of its run was gonna be a huge run, especially NC/VA

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z EPS at the end of its run was gonna be a huge run, especially NC/VA

Marginally colder too

[buckeyefan1]

[BornAgain13]

What's crazy is after this storm, there is a lot of cold air sticking around for a while. Whatever falls aint going anywhere. The ground temps will be cold when it starts falling.. I need sleep gonna be a long week tracking lol 

[WXNewton]

6z EPS was looking good!  Still had plenty to go after that, and temps were locked in to the low 20s and teens!

[WXNewton]

6z EPS temps during the heart of the storm 

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

6z EPS temps during the heart of the storm 

Just unreal if it happens like that

[WXNewton]

6z EPS also increased totals further south when compared to 0z for the hr 144 timeframe. Keep in mind there was more to come after this.

[olafminesaw]

One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WXNewton]

6z ICOn was setting up nicely too. 

[olafminesaw]

RAH is quite bullish

[BooneWX]

Gonna collect some thoughts when I have time later but this is just absolutely absurd

[eyewall]

It was probably way early to start this thread but it is surprising to see RAH on board this early. 

[suzook]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR

Positive? I see no positive with this storm. If any of the ice predictions come true, its going to be a complete shit show. Not just a nuisance, but devastating. Loss of  trees, power, heat and frozen pipes. Sure some will cash in with snow, but this ice is just garbage.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, suzook said:

Positive? I see no positive with this storm. If any of the ice predictions come true, its going to be a complete shit show. Not just a nuisance, but devastating. Loss of  trees, then power, then heat and frozen pipes.

You are correct. That will happen for a lot of people. He’s right too. Enough of a cold press will change the zr to ip or sn to help offset the destruction. 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

You are correct. That will happen for a lot of people. He’s right too. Enough of a cold press will change the zr to ip or sn to help offset the destruction. 

Exactly. Extreme  ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details

[HWY316wx]

21 minutes ago, suzook said:

Positive? I see no positive with this storm. If any of the ice predictions come true, its going to be a complete shit show. Not just a nuisance, but devastating. Loss of  trees, power, heat and frozen pipes. Sure some will cash in with snow, but this ice is just garbage.

THIS.

[kvegas-wx]

29 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It was probably way early to start this thread but it is surprising to see RAH on board this early. 

You're absolutely right, but can we go ahead and pin it too?  This week is must see TV!  One step short of Kamchatka.  I mean could you imagine our board in the week leading up to Kamchatka?!?!  . So lets live a little.  Its the only weather we got man.  And the board is about to be as hyped as it has ever been.  Let's pin the thread. Cuz I'm tired of searching for it and its only Monday.  

[eyewall]

Check please:

[BooneWX]

Speaking through a NC lens mostly:

I think at this point I feel pretty confident in verifying some sort of winter storm across the region this weekend but man are the red flags apparent. AI models have been outperforming the globals and to no surprise (or with our luck), of course they’re north with the coldest air and snow as the warm nose rages during the event. 
 

I’m not sold on that being the final solution, but if we get into tonight/tomorrow morning and it’s looking the same, we might be screwed. The AI models have been very locked in from day 4/5 on this winter. They have struggled a bit with a warm bias but generally, they nail the footprint in the medium-short range. 
 

I still think at worst, this is a sleet fest for most of the state. 
 

Last thought: for someone this will be an ice storm for the ages. Idc if the HP is over upstate NY, Ottawa, Iowa, whatever. It’s going to be somewhere in a favorable position and it’s going to be strong. This favors an abnormally large area of mixed precip and stupidly low temps being fed by a steady pump of cold, dry air. Remember, freezing rain is self limited if the cad is in-situ, but not when it’s an anchored HP to the north. Latent heat release can’t compete with that much caa. We’re talking nightmare type of stuff. Sometimes it helps if the precip is heavy, but in the mid 20s, that won’t matter either.