BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Still a ways to go this week but 1 thing i dont like is the Euro AI and GFS AI cutting west of the apps and bringing more sleet/ZR than snow. Plenty cold at the surface but aloft that would make for more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GEFS 6z GEFS temps through out the heart of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z GEFS, 6hr precip. This gives you a good idea of precip location and movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Still a ways to go this week but 1 thing i dont like is the Euro AI and GFS AI cutting west of the apps and bringing more sleet/ZR than snow. Plenty cold at the surface but aloft that would make for more ice. I think at this point we still put 100% stock in ensembles and EPS and GEFS is keeping everything south. I'd like to see individual members if anyone has them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z Euro AI is just to far north for snow on most of this board. Plenty of ice though taken literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z Euro AI is just to far north for snow on most of this board. Plenty of ice though taken literally That would be devastating, most of the precip falls between 21-26 degrees. Pull for sleet if that's the case. All temps on all models during the heart of storm now are locked in to the low 20s. So temps seem to be one thing that is really starting to set in place. This seems to be a classic full on wedge and a lot of times those will get even stronger as the models get closer. Regardless the temps that are currently being modeled are something we have not seen in a long time with a potential storm coming in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z EURO Snow/ICE Maps. Still going at the end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z Euro AI is just to far north for snow on most of this board. Plenty of ice though taken literally This. It’s going to be an ice storm for someone. No sugar coating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The Euro precip type map on pivotal is calling this ZR, so just be aware that those freezing rain maps are pretty much completely useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z EPS at the end of its run was gonna be a huge run, especially NC/VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z EPS at the end of its run was gonna be a huge run, especially NC/VA Marginally colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What's crazy is after this storm, there is a lot of cold air sticking around for a while. Whatever falls aint going anywhere. The ground temps will be cold when it starts falling.. I need sleep gonna be a long week tracking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z EPS was looking good! Still had plenty to go after that, and temps were locked in to the low 20s and teens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z EPS temps during the heart of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 6z EPS temps during the heart of the storm Just unreal if it happens like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6z EPS also increased totals further south when compared to 0z for the hr 144 timeframe. Keep in mind there was more to come after this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 6z ICOn was setting up nicely too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago RAH is quite bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago Gonna collect some thoughts when I have time later but this is just absolutely absurd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 16 minutes ago Share Posted 16 minutes ago It was probably way early to start this thread but it is surprising to see RAH on board this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago 47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: One positive about this storm is the cold air continues to press south as the precip moves west to East across our area. That's why I think NC should stay mostly sleet/snow and the ice threat will be more in SC/GA. That is unless the whole boundary ends up shifting way North, but usually blocking HPs are pretty well modeled in advance. January 2022 was an example of what an amped up solution would look like: snow changing over to a raging sleet storm followed by a small amount of ZR Positive? I see no positive with this storm. If any of the ice predictions come true, its going to be a complete shit show. Not just a nuisance, but devastating. Loss of trees, power, heat and frozen pipes. Sure some will cash in with snow, but this ice is just garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago Just now, suzook said: Positive? I see no positive with this storm. If any of the ice predictions come true, its going to be a complete shit show. Not just a nuisance, but devastating. Loss of trees, then power, then heat and frozen pipes. You are correct. That will happen for a lot of people. He’s right too. Enough of a cold press will change the zr to ip or sn to help offset the destruction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: You are correct. That will happen for a lot of people. He’s right too. Enough of a cold press will change the zr to ip or sn to help offset the destruction. Exactly. Extreme ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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