Brick Tamland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSUGrad Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Google Weather on my Pixel... 30+ inches over two days in Raleigh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Probably overdone, as usual with snow pack, but we have some sub zero lows for a lot of NC and for Northern SC Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I haven't seen anyone mention the UKMET yet, but it was a big hit today on 12z too. We will see if it follows up again tonight, but I cannot remember another time where pretty much every model showed such a similar situation 5-6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: I haven't seen anyone mention the UKMET yet, but it was a big hit today on 12z too. We will see if it follows up again tonight, but I cannot remember another time where pretty much every model showed such a similar situation 5-6 days out. Yes the UK was on its way to being a big one at 12z. Hopefully 0z is a big hit to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Dont look at the UK. Its ICE and Rain. To warm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GEFS is a solid hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UK shows how it can go wrong. Little bit of SE Ridge and less blocking turns into cold rain and tears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 0z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK shows how it can go wrong. Little bit of SE Ridge and less blocking turns into cold rain and tears Looks like the AI GFS tries to do the same thing. I don't buy the UKMET sending the low right up the Apps into a banana high setup like that. I've seen the models try do that many times over the years and typically what happens is it hits the wedge then comes down and around it or could Miller-B to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GEFS... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro AI also shows more of a cutter but strong CAD so lots of ice.. some of the models have trended towards dumping more cold in the west/midwest. That would not be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro AI also shows more of a cutter but strong CAD so lots of ice.. some of the models have trended towards dumping more cold in the west/midwest. That would not be ideal If the HP is actually at least close to as strong as the other models are showing, I don’t think the AI models will handle this one well. They tend to underestimate extreme anomalous lows/highs because there aren’t enough examples of them in their training data. The other models being physics based know that, while rare, 1050ish highs can absolutely happen this time of year. We need a combination of strong high pressure and a weak (but not too weak lol) overrunning type system. Any combination of weaker high or super amped up storm hurts us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro Ice storm all the way to Macon Ga and just inland from Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro is later with cold push and quicker with precip. Massive ice/sleet storm for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Almost exactly like the AIFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamecockinupstateSC Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hopefully with 925's like this it will be more sleet than FZR. Not good when Euro has had ice for days and is in lock step with the AI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago And it's quicker coming in Friday night/Saturday am. Only 5 and a half days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago Looks like the UKMET and the AIGFS are phasing too early over Arizona,giving this a chance to be amped up,delaying the cold press,and letting it cut. If its going to phase it needs to over around the Rio Grande like the 12z Euro.Or you miss the phase and get a storm with either shortwave. Just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now