January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the models go father south with the storm the next couple of days and then come back north a couple of days later.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mitch West video tonight 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Put it in the archives 

[marsman]

I want to ignore this thread until Saturday morning, I really do. I know I can't. 

 

 

[Brick Tamland]

The Google model looks good.

[GaWx]

 Forecasted indices for 1/24-6:

1. PNA rises from neutral to moderate +
2. AO strong -
3. NAO moderate -  
4. EPO rises from a very strong - to moderate -; despite the moderation, the lagging from the prior very strong -EPO in combo with a rising PNA and with the help of a -AO/-NAO is why extreme cold will be dropping into the C/E US.
5. WPO pretty strong -
6. MJO: GEFS has 7 while EPS has mainly 8

 So, overall the indices are just about as good as it gets for cold and thus storm potential.

——

Edit: Due to the huge amount of blocking, this time there may not be the typical NW trend as we get closer. In other words, the models a few days out may already be closer to reality assuming there actually is a storm.

 

[Brick Tamland]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

NWS

[CheoahBald1]

ICON looking decent so far


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[Brick Tamland]

ICON looks great for NC.

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

10:1 ratio

 

[Brick Tamland]

Rates would be higher than 10:1 according to the Kuchera.