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First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us


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I’m still in the camp of an ENE event. Besides a rogue GFS OP run that seems like the most likely outcome. The lagging vort in the south could be the piece of interference that plagues this event and prevents a more region wide hit.

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That 06z GFS was kind of spooky. Everything was trending great until that run. Hopefully we get a tick west here on 06z Euro. The skynet models (both GFS and Euro skynet) have kept ticking west though. Good sign there. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 06z GFS was kind of spooky. Everything was trending great until that run. Hopefully we get a tick west here on 06z Euro. The skynet models (both GFS and Euro skynet) have kept ticking west though. Good sign there. 

pretty much, the AI models have been steady and consistent. Id like to think that was a fluke run but the GEFS jumped off a cliff and jumped way E, the mean cut down significantly. 

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2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

pretty much, the AI models have been steady and consistent. Id like to think that was a fluke run but the GEFS jumped off a cliff and jumped way E, the mean cut down significantly. 

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

Eh, its one run, one cycle, with >84hrs to go. Lots of time to go. It's not what you want to see but i expect waffling and flip flopping to happen at this range. storms rarely trend consistently in one direction up until go time. Again, the euro will be important today. AIs barely budging and even trending west is also a good sign. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Storm canceled. Amazing. 

Canceled, the only model that really showed us getting a major hit was the GFS. Plus when the Euro is off that much, it's a big red flag. Now, after Euro starts trending more West throughout today on the GFS stays steady and then maybe comes back West, I'd be on board. But I was never super excited about a snowstorm with basically one major model showing it.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The boring January continues.

Its amazing how awful these models are. You cant even take them seriously until at least 84 hours out now.

I can’t wait until we furnace Feb and head to summer. This is absurd. Bring on the heat and dews.

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Canceled, the only model that really showed us getting a major hit was the GFS. Plus when the Euro is off that much, it's a big red flag. Now, after Euro starts trending more West throughout today on the GFS stays steady and then maybe comes back West, I'd be on board. But I was never super excited about a snowstorm with basically one major model showing it.

Dude it’s gone 

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