First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Kitz Craver]

I’m still in the camp of an ENE event. Besides a rogue GFS OP run that seems like the most likely outcome. The lagging vort in the south could be the piece of interference that plagues this event and prevents a more region wide hit.

[MJO812]

Gfs is the new nam. Horrendous model. 

[The 4 Seasons]

AIFS 6Z bumped west

[ORH_wxman]

That 06z GFS was kind of spooky. Everything was trending great until that run. Hopefully we get a tick west here on 06z Euro. The skynet models (both GFS and Euro skynet) have kept ticking west though. Good sign there. 

[The 4 Seasons]

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 06z GFS was kind of spooky. Everything was trending great until that run. Hopefully we get a tick west here on 06z Euro. The skynet models (both GFS and Euro skynet) have kept ticking west though. Good sign there. 

pretty much, the AI models have been steady and consistent. Id like to think that was a fluke run but the GEFS jumped off a cliff and jumped way E, the mean cut down significantly. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Friday night into Saturday on wave 1 with 1-3/2-4 interior That one sped up. 

That’s for Berks 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

pretty much, the AI models have been steady and consistent. Id like to think that was a fluke run but the GEFS jumped off a cliff and jumped way E, the mean cut down significantly. 

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s for Berks 

Yeah, maybe western CT as well, supposed to be pretty warm Saturday in some of CT

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Yeah, maybe western CT as well, supposed to be pretty warm Saturday in some of CT

Yep

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and gefs are horrendous. Just as we thought the models were trending to the gfs. Always need the Euro on your side. 

Saturday might be a bigger deal than Sunday. 

Eh, its one run, one cycle, with >84hrs to go. Lots of time to go. It's not what you want to see but i expect waffling and flip flopping to happen at this range. storms rarely trend consistently in one direction up until go time. Again, the euro will be important today. AIs barely budging and even trending west is also a good sign. 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro no real change from 00z….maybe ticked slightly better if you squint. 

[CoastalWx]

Storm canceled. Amazing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s for Berks 

It’s for all of interior SNE

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You should be more interested in Saturday than MLK

Berks 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s for all of interior SNE

Nope 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Yeah, maybe western CT as well, supposed to be pretty warm Saturday in some of CT

It actually snows right to 95.. just to warm there to stick 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nope 

Yes .. ask Will 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Storm canceled. Amazing. 

The boring January continues.

Its amazing how awful these models are. You cant even take them seriously until at least 84 hours out now.

[MJO812]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It actually snows right to 95.. just to warm there to stick 

 A few inches possible on colder surfaces.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 A few inches possible on colder surfaces.

Yup 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup 

It’s like 35F. Good luck 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like another Simsbury west deal 

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Storm canceled. Amazing. 

Canceled, the only model that really showed us getting a major hit was the GFS. Plus when the Euro is off that much, it's a big red flag. Now, after Euro starts trending more West throughout today on the GFS stays steady and then maybe comes back West, I'd be on board. But I was never super excited about a snowstorm with basically one major model showing it.

[Cold Miser]

Cancel...and now on to the rain events later in the month.  Rinse and repeat.

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The boring January continues.

Its amazing how awful these models are. You cant even take them seriously until at least 84 hours out now.

I can’t wait until we furnace Feb and head to summer. This is absurd. Bring on the heat and dews.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s like 35F. Good luck 

31-32 hills. It sucks MLK is OTS . Was hoping it would come back 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Canceled, the only model that really showed us getting a major hit was the GFS. Plus when the Euro is off that much, it's a big red flag. Now, after Euro starts trending more West throughout today on the GFS stays steady and then maybe comes back West, I'd be on board. But I was never super excited about a snowstorm with basically one major model showing it.

Dude it’s gone 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

31-32 hills. It sucks MLK is OTS . Was hoping it would come back 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

I still think a moderate event is possible. Big hits are gone though. Let's hope the AIs continue to stand pat