Interior NW & NE Burbs 2026

[crossbowftw3]

Playing a rather dangerous game where I’m at in western Sullivan, either skunked or a slam dunk, only one way to know.

[IrishRob17]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Are you lost? LOL. Good to see you up here. 

[wishcast_hater]

I think I get at least 12” the way things are looking. Just amazing if the models verify. I work in the city and already told them they won’t be seeing me Monday. Plenty of snow still left on the ground here - gonna be sick.


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[wishcast_hater]

Got a glorified dusting overnight. All surfaces covered. Waiting for my watch to become a warning, amazing that Albany is still hesitant.


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[gravitylover]

Barely a dusting here. There are some cool crystal shapes in it.

Yeah what's with that Hudson Valley gap? 

[crossbowftw3]

Another wild NAM run, starting to look more and more like January 2016 but I get involved on this one. 6-12 seems most plausible for me at this time with the totals skyrocketing further SE from me. My sister and BIL in Westchester may get just as smoked as NYC does. 

[White Gorilla]

I got a dusting here in Poughkeepsie in January 2016. I think I’m gonna get more than that this time.


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[IrishRob17]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

I got a dusting here in Poughkeepsie in January 2016. I think I’m gonna get more than that this time.


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Same here and agreed. 

[gravitylover]

My back hurts already.

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My back hurts already.

I hear that but the way I see it, it’s late in the season, the sun angle is higher now, we aren’t heading into another bitter cold spell, so my clean up may not be as extensive as last month. It helps that both the wife and I have AWD too. 

[wishcast_hater]

Wouldn’t mind 24”.


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[IrishRob17]

22 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Wouldn’t mind 24”.


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I’m not confident that map will verify IMBY. Sure, the NAM did its NAM thing but the RGEM and ICON lowered totals from 6z. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

[crossbowftw3]

12z gfs, that cutoff zone is inching closer to me

[Juliancolton]

37 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I’m not confident that map will verify IMBY. Sure, the NAM did its NAM thing but the RGEM and ICON lowered totals from 6z. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

That's a real scrape job on the hi-res Canadian. The low only gets to about Wallops latitude before punting east and the CCB doesn't really start cranking until eastern SNE. I do think the NAM is obviously overdone, hopefully the goalposts hold and most end up with a nice warning event.

[Juliancolton]

GFS and GGEM are both really solid with some good banding potential in the interior. Would love for the euro to tick wetter again at 12z

[White Gorilla]

GFS and GGEM are both really solid with some good banding potential in the interior. Would love for the euro to tick wetter again at 12z

Yup, it did!

Expecting a solid 8-12 here in the MHV


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[crossbowftw3]

Warning hoisted for 6-14”; would anticipate lower end of those amounts for MBY. City east looks very good at this time. I expect a 2’-30” reading somewhere between Tom’s River and Eastern LI

[wishcast_hater]

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Starting to think everybody gets 10 inches plus all the way up to Kingston. Around and below 84 maybe 15-20 not out of the question. 

[Juliancolton]

Yeah, someone around 84 is getting buried. I'm really excited for tonight's mesos to try and get a feel for where the best bands could set up

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, someone around 84 is getting buried. I'm really excited for tonight's mesos to try and get a feel for where the best bands could set up

The bands and the inevitable dry slot for someone. I noticed one right over eastern Orange County in one of the models last runs. Hopefully that doesn't verify but if it does hopefully short lived. 

[wishcast_hater]

Well, I will let you know. I am about 7 miles north of 84 leaning more towards eastern Dutchess. I bought a plow for my quad before winter, definitely came in handy this year. More fun than snow blowing.


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[wishcast_hater]

The bands and the inevitable dry slot for someone. I noticed one right over eastern Orange County in one of the models last runs. Hopefully that doesn't verify but if it does hopefully short lived. 

More subsidence than dry slot.


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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

More subsidence than dry slot.


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Either a possibility maybe both. Just have to hope they move on and you don't get stuck in either too long. . 

[IrishRob17]

The 18z HRRR has potential for lightning even up here tomorrow night. FYI, I am not well versed in that layer of the model runs. 

[rclab]

17 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Are you lost? LOL. Good to see you up here. 

Rob, my NE/NW Burbs postage stamp consulates old man 36 inch snow stick is primed and ready. RJay gave me a WEINIE for having the audacity to even fantasize 36 inches…. Well the 11 I got, last time, was enough to make headlines. If the old man stick gets close to the 36 I’ll post a photo. For that I’m liable to get a Bockwurst. I’ll try to show it off at the senior center …. At least before I’m taken away. Please stay safe my friends in the Burbs and everyone in our forums effected areas. As always ….

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

The 18z HRRR has potential for lightning even up here tomorrow night. FYI, I am not well versed in that layer of the model runs. 

SPC AC 211725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night into early Monday.

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

SPC AC 211725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night into early Monday.

It didn’t look like much but it was there so thanks for the confirmation on what I thought I was seeing. 

[Juliancolton]

Lines are growing at the gas stations in town, people are catching on

[BxEngine]

29 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Lines are growing at the gas stations in town, people are catching on

A friend just texted me “if i was in wegmans for 5 more minutes i was most likely leaving in handcuffs. Looked like the opening scene from saving private ryan”