Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

[eyewall]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

Same here. We have seen so many modeled hits fizzle out.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Halloween snow in the Triad?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[olafminesaw]

Womp womp

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Womp womp

 This like another map I saw this morning shows that I’d get within just the next few days at least as much as I got in all of pretty dry Sept., which was ~2.55”. So, I hope it verifies pretty closely for MBY. In reality due to the showery nature of some of this producing isolated heavy amounts, I realize there will likely be significant variations in totals within pretty short distances though.

[olafminesaw]

National blend of models forecast for the next week 

[wncsnow]

The rain amounts are definitely a lot lower on most models. Looks like less than an inch for most of WNC now and possibly less than .50 for the northern foothills and piedmont. 

[ClaytonWx]

Everyone else is seeing this clowny GFS run right? Bringing snow showers through the Triad and even pushing into the Triangle. Couldn’t believe my eyes, but it is the GFS after all.

[eyewall]

Lock it in!

[NorthHillsWx]

On 9/29/2026 at 9:01 AM, eyewall said:

Same here. We have seen so many modeled hits fizzle out.

 

On 9/28/2026 at 10:18 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

Rinse and repeat, rainfall in central NC not going to amount to nearly the totals we were expecting all week:

Given the mesoscale and subsequent nrn stream influences noted
above, precipitation amounts have trended lower across model
guidance in the past 24 hours for cntl NC, particularly over the
Piedmont.

[olafminesaw]

[cbmclean]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

Rinse and repeat, rainfall in central NC not going to amount to nearly the totals we were expecting all week:

Given the mesoscale and subsequent nrn stream influences noted
above, precipitation amounts have trended lower across model
guidance in the past 24 hours for cntl NC, particularly over the
Piedmont.

Latest HRRR as posted by @olafminesaw is a kick in the nads for the norther tier, which for some reason has been unable to catch a break since the end of July.  Mean while the southern tier still set for a decent soaking.

The NAM still looks much better for the NE quadrant, including Wake, but how much stock can you put in a model that is at death's door?

Really impatient for the el nino southern jet stream to kick in

[wncsnow]

The southern stream is still dead. It should wake up for real in the next month or 2

[cbmclean]

Unexpectedly heavy rain has snuck in.  I'm at 0.60" which has already exceeded the HRRR guidance for the entire weekend (as of the 12Z map that was posted by @olafminesaw).  A fast start for a change.

Edit: Looks like I'll end with 0.91" for this batch.  The radar didn't look too impressive but it was an efficient rain maker.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

The southern stream is still dead. It should wake up for real in the next month or 2

I wonder if we'll be sick of rain come March.

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Unexpectedly heavy rain has snuck in.  I'm at 0.60" which has already exceeded the HRRR guidance for the entire weekend (as of the 12Z map that was posted by @olafminesaw).  A fast start for a change.

  Here I’ve been getting rain since 12:45PM moving NE with some of it very heavy. This is in addition to a quick shower this morning and moderate rain (few tenths) late yest. afternoon from popups. It appears I’ve received 1.5”+ from all of this with most of it just since 12:45PM. This compares to ~2.55” for all of Sep!

[Snowacane]

25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I wonder if we'll be sick of rain come March.

I wonder if it will really rain

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Snowacane said:

I wonder if it will really rain

It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.

[strongwxnc]

It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.

Always weary of any super Uber hype.


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