Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[SUNYGRAD]

...Kinda surprised the categories didn't increase a little more in D2-D4 and next level.  DSCI slight increase.

[olafminesaw]

22 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

...Kinda surprised the categories didn't increase a little more in D2-D4 and next level.  DSCI slight increase.

Ties the all time DSCI record for the SE region previously set 12-18-2007

[NorthHillsWx]

We talk about NC a lot in here but man the upstate and especially southern half of GA and Florida are in even worse shape with almost those entire areas in D3 or D4

[wncsnow]

I'm still in believe it when I see it mode with regards to a pattern change. I'm still seeing signs of too much NW flow. 

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm still in believe it when I see it mode with regards to a pattern change. I'm still seeing signs of too much NW flow. 

King Euro AI would have to agree 

[suzook]

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

King Euro AI would have to agree 

Ugh. Brutal 

[eyewall]

51 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm still in believe it when I see it mode with regards to a pattern change. I'm still seeing signs of too much NW flow. 

I definitely worry about getting this pattern in July. We will be 110F LOL.

[NorthHillsWx]

40 minutes ago, suzook said:

Ugh. Brutal 

 

58 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

King Euro AI would have to agree 

We’ve had so many moments since March when it looked like a pattern change was coming in the 14 day window just to revert to factory settings of drought. 

[wncsnow]

Not good 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Not good 

It's not going to rain until next December. 

[Snowacane]

51 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It's not going to rain until next December. 

We will all be in a Western by then

[marsman]

20 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

We will all be in a Western by then

 

[suzook]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Not good 

What in the F!!!!!!!????????. That's just pure hell.

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, marsman said:

 

More like :

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s gonna be June before I have to mow my lawn this year 

[marsman]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s gonna be June before I have to mow my lawn this year 

Unless it burns down first, like Lake Crabtree: https://www.wral.com/news/local/lake-crabtree-county-park-closed-brush-fire-april-2026/

[Met1985]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s gonna be June before I have to mow my lawn this year 

I've not even touched my lawn yet. It's high but the deer like it so im keeping it like that until the rains return. 

[wncsnow]

The Tuck has been good wading and fishing with the low water levels

[NorthHillsWx]

Don’t look at the GFS if you thought it was going to rain again in NC this month

[suzook]

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Don’t look at the GFS if you thought it was going to rain again in NC this month

Unfortunately I just looked this morning. Same for Georgia. Absolutely zilch through May 3rd. You would think with the heat we would get some rogue tstorms. Big fat nothing. The clay has turned into permanent cement, and is now starting to crack open in many spots on my property. 

[Met1985]

The euro

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[suzook]

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The euro

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Ironically, I am right by that .8. Talk about the screw zone! Local mets saying to get out of the drought conditions we would need around 20 to 25 inches of rain the next couple of months. I'd be shocked if we get that much rain in the next year.

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

 I’m targeting November for the change to consistently wetter than normal in much of the SE, which is typical for strong El Niño autumns. Until then lots of watering is anticipated during dry periods.

 But good news is that for well before then, the model consensus is showing a pattern change to wetter than normal in ~10 days and going into early May in my general area, where the drought is the worst in the SE. Fingers crossed that from then through Oct will be closer to normal overall.

Latest Euro Weeklies for Apr 27-May 3:

[eyewall]

A few showers skirted just north of Raleigh this morning. 

[NorthHillsWx]

56 minutes ago, eyewall said:

A few showers skirted just north of Raleigh this morning. 

They were legit thunderstorms. Was turkey hunting when they went by decent amount of thunder and lightning 

[BooneWX]

4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The euro

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Phase 8 will need to deliver the goods 

[suzook]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m targeting November for the change to consistently wetter than normal in much of the SE, which is typical for strong El Niño autumns. Until then lots of watering is anticipated during dry periods.

 But good news is that for well before then, the model consensus is showing a pattern change to wetter than normal in ~10 days and going into early May in my general area, where the drought is the worst in the SE. Fingers crossed that from then through Oct will be closer to normal overall.

Latest Euro Weeklies for Apr 27-May 3:

I'll believe that when I see it. Fingers crossed though 

[Met1985]

23 minutes ago, suzook said:

I'll believe that when I see it. Fingers crossed though 

We aren't going to stay dry forever.  This notion that we are the desert SW all of a sudden is hilarious. 

[olafminesaw]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m targeting November for the change to consistently wetter than normal in much of the SE, which is typical for strong El Niño autumns. Until then lots of watering is anticipated during dry periods.

 But good news is that for well before then, the model consensus is showing a pattern change to wetter than normal in ~10 days and going into early May in my general area, where the drought is the worst in the SE. Fingers crossed that from then through Oct will be closer to normal overall.

Latest Euro Weeklies for Apr 27-May 3:

Euro vs EL nino climo. I think slightly below normal starting in May is a good bet. Which honestly isn't the worst outcome to keep the drought from accelerating.