Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[olafminesaw]

Drought to worsen and fire conditions ramp up this weekend with warm temps, dewpoints in the low 50s and breezy conditions. Some signs of a more seasonally average shower/storm chances returning late next week. Hopefully the quick ramp up towards EL nino over the next few weeks will help to shake up the pattern and break down the ridge 

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

[NorthHillsWx]

Next week extreme will probably exceed 25% of the state

[NorthHillsWx]

0z GFS is legit zero rain for the entire forum through the entire run

[olafminesaw]

50 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

0z GFS is legit zero rain for the entire forum through the entire run

I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too

I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change

[NorthHillsWx]

58 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too

I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change

RDU picked up 0.09” on Sunday last week but that was the only measurable rain this month. If models hold and no additional rain is recorded this would move April 2026 into the second driest month ever recorded, behind 0.06” from October 2000. 

[wncsnow]

An April month this dry is even more anomalous than super dry fall months. Lots of brown grass this summer

[yotaman]

Looks like the heat coming is back next week with many of us, possibly hitting 90.

[NorthHillsWx]

41 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Looks like the heat coming is back next week with many of us, possibly hitting 90.

Point click has 92-93 here midweek

[NorthHillsWx]

https://abc11.com/post/drought-places-strain-central-north-carolina-farmers-rural-communities/18862407/
 

This video was taken from the farm adjoining ours in Franklin county and that is our farmer in the video. 

[BooneWX]

The forests in the western half of NC are littered with dried debris from Helene. It’s a powder keg and I’m afraid one cigarette flung out of a window could cause a disaster. 

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The forests in the western half of NC are littered with dried debris from Helene. It’s a powder keg and I’m afraid one cigarette flung out of a window could cause a disaster. 

 I’ve been sprinkling the yards recently. The drought in this area and especially to the SW is about the most severe in the entire SE with widespread D3 (extreme) here to D4 (exceptional) in SC GA to NC FL. See map below.

 Although it’s unpredictable, the good news is that a strong El Niño appears to be on the way. If that verifies, much of the SE should see wet relief by November based on history and long range models:

 

[BooneWX]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’ve been sprinkling the yards recently. The drought in this area and especially to the SW is about the most severe in the entire SE with widespread D3 (extreme) here to D4 (exceptional) in SC GA to NC FL. See map below.

 Although it’s unpredictable, the good news is that a strong El Niño appears to be on the way. If that verifies, much of the SE should see wet relief by November based on history and long range models:

 

I’ve went into my full July irrigation schedule here. Even with it, this is probably the worst the lawn has looked in April in years. I have Texas Bluegrass that spreads with rhizomes like Bermuda and its repairing ability has completely stalled out these past few weeks.