Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[HKY_WX]

This is a pretty insane -NAO signal day 10. This would displace the mean pattern further south eventually. You would think it could lend itself to one of those classic late winter UL bowling ball snowstorms at some point in late February/March if we're lucky.

 

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, WXNewton said:

12z Euro shifts way south this run, I suspect EPS will reflect that as well. Still rain for most but CLT went from 58 at 6z to lower 40s this run. Continue to lead with ens at this point bc ops are still out there when they shift like this over a 6 hr period lol. 

Well then, let's see if we can trend this into a winter storm.

[WXNewton]

31 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This is a pretty insane -NAO signal day 10. This would displace the mean pattern further south eventually. You would think it could lend itself to one of those classic late winter UL bowling ball snowstorms at some point in late February/March if we're lucky.

 

 

I like the sounds of that! Let's have a little March 1st 09 bowling ball roll through!

[wncsnow]

Just now, WXNewton said:

I like the sounds of that! Let's have a little March 1st 09 bowling ball roll through!

Hard pass

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Hard pass

I am sorry, I forgot that was a sore one for you! It's all fun and games until your neighbor gets 8-10" and you're looking a the bare ground. I will not mention it again!

[WXNewton]

Verbatim, 12z UKMET was a nasty ice storm for Ashe, Watauga, Avery and Allegheny counties.

[SHTFWX]

3 hours ago, WXNewton said:

I like the sounds of that! Let's have a little March 1st 09 bowling ball roll through!

That was a good storm.  To make it a little better, maybe this time the bowling ball can be a ball of ICE!  LETS GO!

[olafminesaw]

The perfect track just no cold air. Back to our regularly scheduled programing I suppose

[suzook]

Models seem to keep pushing that colder air further and further out. Wondering if it even happens? 

[VBweather]

21 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

How can I generate similar maps? Is this a subscription based site? Thanks.

[BornAgain13]

Do not believe the 6z Euro, Do not believe the 6z Euro. Stay away lol

[WXNewton]

FWIW the 06z Euro is an absolute crush job and much colder for N NC MTNs and a lot of VA! Also, temps not too far off this run all the way back down towards I40. Temps change between 00z and 6z is crazy!

 

 

[WXNewton]

18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Do not believe the 6z Euro, Do not believe the 6z Euro. Stay away lol

Shouldn't have looked, now I will be chasing another cycle! 6z EPS, ticked back south too with some totals. 

[tarheelwx]

06z Euro also showed some significant ice on the southern edge.  I woudn't overlook the ice potential on this one in Cad areas.  

TW

[WXNewton]

9 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

06z Euro also showed some significant ice on the southern edge.  I woudn't overlook the ice potential on this one in Cad areas.  

TW

Definitely worth watching some more! Between now and Thursday, models should sway either one way or another. If there's going to be a wintry side somewhere, I'd feel good about western border counties through central western VA, also any ice potential could go as far south as 40 in the heart of the CAD areas. I think we will see some model agreement over the next few days. What was interesting on that Euro run vs last night is the low pressure was quite a bit stronger and further north but definitely more wintry looking. It will be interesting to see what the next 48 hrs trends are. Also, on this run you can see the high pressure stayed more anchored in the Northeast-Eastern Canada and the low pressure above the Great lakes kind of died out a little bit.

[tarheelwx]

Keep that high over the northeast/new england and I suspect the cold air will show up.  Assuming that look is correct or even improves a bit, I'd expect more ice to start showing up.

TW

[tarheelwx]

12z GFS not showing any snow/ice, but it does put a 1027 to 1030 high in a pretty prime spot.  I'd look for things to trend colder at the surface.  In the last 3 cycles, GSO has gone from 57 to 51 to 37 late afternoon Sunday.   Quite the change. 

TW

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

12z GFS not showing any snow/ice, but it does put a 1027 to 1030 high in a pretty prime spot.  I'd look for things to trend colder at the surface.

TW

This run went from 52 on 06z to 38 in MBY another tick like that and we might be in business. This is why I love weather, just went we think we can predict the future 5 days out, it changes drastically in 6hrs!

[WXNewton]

Canadian going to come in further south too and more pronounced wedge.