Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[cbmclean]

I am declaring defeat on Sunday and moving on.

[BornAgain13]

Winter Storm showing for VA at Day 10/11 on the Euro.

[stormwatcherJ]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Winter Storm showing for VA at Day 10/11 on the Euro.

That long of a wait? Damn.. we're kicking that can again...

[BornAgain13]

I know this is kicking the can so to say... but it looks like the best period for snow or wintry weather is between the period of the 25th-29th. Multiple runs of the euro/gfs/cmc ensemble show a decent cold and moisture during that time. Something possibly more significant to track. 

[WXNewton]

40 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I know this is kicking the can so to say... but it looks like the best period for snow or wintry weather is between the period of the 25th-29th. Multiple runs of the euro/gfs/cmc ensemble show a decent cold and moisture during that time. Something possibly more significant to track. 

I was just looking through ensembles and thought the same thing. Let's get plenty of rest in the mean time and hope we are tracking something significant in the latter half of the month!

[wncsnow]

25 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I was just looking through ensembles and thought the same thing. Let's get plenty of rest in the mean time and hope we are tracking something significant in the latter half of the month!

Looks more like VA north to me. 

[WNC_Fort]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Looks more like VA north to me. 

Trust we won’t have an issue with cold rain and plenty of moisture end of month

[Upstate Tiger]

3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

I know this is kicking the can so to say... but it looks like the best period for snow or wintry weather is between the period of the 25th-29th. Multiple runs of the euro/gfs/cmc ensemble show a decent cold and moisture during that time. Something possibly more significant to track. 

12Z looks good to me for more opportunities after this week and possibly into February.  

[BornAgain13]

Several runs in a row from the GFS around the 27th-28th time frame of a possible Winter Storm.

[BornAgain13]

North Carolina and Virginia get pasted per 12z GFS. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

North Carolina and Virginia get pasted per 12z GFS. 

Dec 2018 vibes on that one 

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Several runs in a row from the GFS around the 27th-28th time frame of a possible Winter Storm.

Euro has it, too, for the 26th and 27th. Looks like a classic NC winter storm with snow in the northern part of the state and ice in the southern and eastern part. 

[Brick Tamland]

 

 

[WNC_Fort]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

 

 

Don’t you love how the precip always disappears in McDowell @wncsnow

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Don’t you love how the precip always disappears in McDowell @wncsnow

Well, to be fair you can see the entire state (and Virginia too) east of the Apps suffers from a qpf shadow.  Sometimes the Apps are nice like when they trap cold air.  Other times I wish we could press a button and retract them.

[Upstate Tiger]

Some very interesting solutions on the Euro over the next couple weeks, starting with the end of next week.

  

[stormwatcherJ]

Ahh gluttons for punishment we are

[Brick Tamland]

GFS has it a little later on the 28th and 29th.

 

[strongwxnc]

Some very interesting solutions on the Euro over the next couple weeks, starting with the end of next week.
  

Never ! But yes looking like
Some digital tracking is on!


.

[wncsnow]

17 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Don’t you love how the precip always disappears in McDowell @wncsnow

Bet the streak. Dry and windy. 

[kvegas-wx]

Fair question I think, when was the last meaningful storm (maybe a Big Dog) that any combination of models forecasted correctly from 240+ out?

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Fair question I think, when was the last meaningful storm (maybe a Big Dog) that any combination of models forecasted correctly from 240+ out?

Not sure, but I do like that the Euro is showing it, too, and not just the GFS. Makes me think it might actually have legs.

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Fair question I think, when was the last meaningful storm (maybe a Big Dog) that any combination of models forecasted correctly from 240+ out?

The  December 2018  was modeled well way far back but not sure how much it waffled in between. 

 

This mean was 6/7 days prior to the event 

[NorthHillsWx]

My prediction is the mid Atlantic gets plastered the next couple weeks. Good storm track for them 

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The  December 2018  was modeled well way far back but not sure how much it waffled in between. 

 

This mean was 6/7 days prior to the event 

That and Dec 18, 2009 were pegged a week+ out. Always a few wiggles in amounts but both events locked in and stayed in modeling. 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

That and Dec 18, 2009 were pegged a week+ out. Always a few wiggles in amounts but both events locked in and stayed in modeling. 

Unlink the Christmas storm in 2010. That was probably the most fun/twists of any storm I remember. 

[BooneWX]

That Dec 2018 storm was the most relaxed I had ever been ahead of a storm. It was absolutely locked in with zero budging for a week straight and every single model was on board as well as ensembles. Our flow right now is just not slow enough to make that possible. 

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

That Dec 2018 storm was the most relaxed I had ever been ahead of a storm. It was absolutely locked in with zero budging for a week straight and every single model was on board as well as ensembles. Our flow right now is just not slow enough to make that possible. 

Another storm I felt like locked in a long time out was the big foothills crusher of Dec 18th 2009. Felt like it didn't change much and the Jan 30 2010. Man what a winter that was!

 

Just got goosebumps looking at the radar from Dec 09 storm. Happy Friday!

[Met1985]

How about no storm thread until 72 hours out... I hate to see yall weenies crash out.

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

How about no storm thread until 72 hours out... I hate to see yall weenies crash out.

It doesn't matter when the storm thread is started. It has no control over what happens, and folks are going to be disappointed if a storm falls apart no matter if it's 7 days or 3 days out.