olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 01:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:16 PM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Any rain with this weekend storm system will be extremely beneficial. Severe drought has exploded in area across the southeast and now 1/3 of NC (up from less than 1% last week) is in the severe drought category. Western areas and mountains should do well but central piedmont and coastal plain look to whiff, again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: This event is very close to being a whopper for I-85 north. It’s a classic look for a major winter storm in the upper southeast. We just need a bit more help with digging and tilt. It would be really nice if our source region for cold wasn’t baking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 1/15 interest as of 12z: Icon: proper digging, phase GFS: northern stream dominant, tries a late phase Different solutions, growing noise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago GFS is pretty close to where you'd want it at this point. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago We need that full phase to capitalize but so far, our source issue for cold looks better. Some really cold, dry air lurking just to the north…The gfs would likely be fine in that regard at this range - 1032 over lower Ontario. CAD would likely trend stouter until go time. Icon is less enthused about the thermals but shows exactly what you can do if the northern stream and southern stream decide to mingle. It was very close to a solid 4-8” event for central/western NC northward. Just needed a few small tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: We need that full phase to capitalize but so far, our source issue for cold looks better. Some really cold, dry air lurking just to the north…The gfs would likely be fine in that regard at this range - 1032 over lower Ontario. CAD would likely trend stouter until go time. Icon is less enthused about the thermals but shows exactly what you can do if the northern stream and southern stream decide to mingle. It was very close to a solid 4-8” event for central/western NC northward. Just needed a few small tweaks. Reloads nicely after the 15th as well. Very cold run after the pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Still a good signal for next weekend on the 12Zs so far. Agree we see a reload by the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago ICON looks great! Love seeing runs showing more potential!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago If the GFS is right we’ve got 2 chances at a storm from the 15th-19th, and maybe more after but don’t wanna look too far ahead. If we can just kick this missed/late phase trend we’ve been on for a few years now. Feels like we had a long run of just about everything being amped up qpf bombs and now we’ve swung hard in the other direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago GFS with a 990 100 miles east of where we want it isn’t a bad spot to be 7 days out. AI similar and ICON is a mountains-Virginia major storm. Definitely a signal consolidating for that timeframe. Let’s see if trends continue with regards to phasing and trough placement 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Tons of energy flying around. I want to see the cold first. 12Z is off to a good start with more cold air. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS with a 990 100 miles east of where we want it isn’t a bad spot to be 7 days out. AI similar and ICON is a mountains-Virginia major storm. Definitely a signal consolidating for that timeframe. Let’s see if trends continue with regards to phasing and trough placement Would love to see the Euro be on board but thats Dr. No to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Day 7 Euro is close and I think the trough is better positioned but still not much at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago Euro is a close miss. I’m fine with that at this range. It has the signal and that’s all we need this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago Oh boy. The Euro might be setting up for glory on the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Oh boy. The Euro might be setting up for glory on the second storm. Another close miss! The pieces are there. Just need them to connect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago I mean my goodness. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago I mean my goodness. .One of these is eventually going to give my kids the kind of storm I talk about from growing up in nj in the late 70s early 80s. Ready the phasers Captain!. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago We’re going to eventually get a weenie run for the ages here soon. So much to like from that 12z suite. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: We’re going to eventually get a weenie run for the ages here soon. So much to like from that 12z suite. 1 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago The motherload of cold keep showing up towards the end of the month. Will be interesting to see where it goes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Good trends across guidance for the 15-16th period. Storm signal is there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago If we waste that look around MLK Day on the euro, we suck. - Extremely tall west coast ridge - deep deep eastern trough - a little bit of ridging in west Atlantic - SER nowhere in sight - troughing east of Hawaii If you showed me the 500mb look with no context, I’d assume you’re showing me an analog for a memorable storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 20 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If we waste that look around MLK Day on the euro, we suck. - Extremely tall west coast ridge - deep deep eastern trough - a little bit of ridging in west Atlantic - SER nowhere in sight - troughing east of Hawaii If you showed me the 500mb look with no context, I’d assume you’re showing me an analog for a memorable storm. We tend to suck a lot nowadays 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago I want to believe. The signal is there. Just afraid to wear my heart on my sleeve again haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago I want to believe. The signal is there. Just afraid to wear my heart on my sleeve again hahaMy rule of thumb is the temper all expectations and enjoy the ride. However I work on a 12 hour rule. Once Inside 12 hours I can open a beer ! . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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