January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

Canadian so far seems relatively unchanged. Maybe a bit north with the overall pattern, though it could just be a bit slower. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Damn, ICON miss. gg

"GG"? Ha...Now see that shows you how much we view these model runs with the same emotions we watch our favorite teams with, lol

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

20mb drop from 120-126.  Lol.

This thing ain't messing around if it does hit us.

[Nomz]

Boston wins again!

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For everyone wondering I think this is the dictionary definition of edging

The fish have already gotten the party started.

[Nomz]

Just now, Snowciopathic Snow Bro said:

The fish have already gotten the party started.

theyve started the thread

[LordBaltimore]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

GG? Ha...Now see that shows you how much we view these model runs with the same emotions we watch our favorite teams with, lol

More than that. If it were physically possible to pull a Tonya Harding on an atmospheric feature to get more snow I would do it with no remorse

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Canadian so far seems relatively unchanged. Maybe a bit north with the overall pattern, though it could just be a bit slower. 

I like everything about the ggem at 90 except it’s weaker and slightly easy with the southern wave. But its more amplified and detached and west with the NS and as expected the western ridge continues to bleed slightly west every run. 

[overcautionisbad]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

For everyone wondering I think this is the dictionary definition of edging

Yep ICON and GFS agree

 

Gg next

[Amped]

Cmc even further west with the troff axis at 102hrs. Coastal looks weaker so far.

[overcautionisbad]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"GG"? Ha...Now see that shows you how much we view these model runs with the same emotions we watch our favorite teams with, lol

Yeah, I'm a pc gamer lol

[stormtracker]

so far 0z GGEM is mostly similar to 12z version that got us 

[stormtracker]

CMC prob about to do it....

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

More than that. If it were physically possible to pull a Tonya Harding on an atmospheric feature to get more snow I would do it with no remorse

GFS = Gillooly For Snow?

[Nomz]

Which models qualify for folks? Just euro and gfs? Regionals inside reasonable range?

[psuhoffman]

A thought. There is variability within the larger scale setup. So it’s possible to get a better setup in terms of the major long wave features but end up with a worse result due to minor factors causing a slower development or less amplification. However, if the larger scale trend of backing both the NS wave and the western ridge continues at some point a better outcome becomes much more likely regardless of the small scale variables. In other words get the whole thing to back another 150 miles and it would take a much less perfect progression to get a hit. Right now we could win but it would take  damn near perfect phase and amplification which is what the runs showing a hit have. Keep improving the ridge/trough axis and even a less perfect result can end up good. 

[stormtracker]

[Interstate]

You could look out over th ocean at ocean city and see it snowing heavy  

[Nomz]

Canadian has rates >2" on kuchera in central NC lmao

[stormtracker]

Carolinas getting crushed on the CMC.  Crazy storm down there.  HOpefully we're next

[bncho]

Coastal is more tucked than 12z, it's just a little bit later than 12z as well

[LordBaltimore]

Question for mets. What factors here determine the extent of the precip shield? Seems rather narrow on GFS for low that deep

[EHoffman]

Is Pivotal crashing for anyone else?

[stormtracker]

Swear to God if this hits the Carolinas and just goes out and we get a blip....fire will rain down

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Swear to God if this hits the Carolinas and just goes out and we get a blip....fire will rain down

That pink area dropped 19" of snow in 6hrs 

just a testament to the potential we have

[benjammin]

I will allow this.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[bncho]

@AlexD1990 is going to get 30+" on this CMC run

[stormtracker]

[psuhoffman]

Ggem trend 

 

[bncho]

congrats, richmond!