January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[ravensrule]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Who’s driving this damn bus?

Stevie Wonder. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Who’s driving this damn bus?

I’ll do it for the next 20 min then I have to pass on the baton. 

Nothing noteworthy up to Jan 20 yet. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Stevie Wonder. 

We're on the Harry Potter Knight Bus...ahhhhhhhh!

[RickinBaltimore]

13 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Dundalk is just the anus of MD period. 

Ahem.

[stormtracker]

Listen, I started to bus.  I'll go down in flames.  Trust me.   It'll be quick.

 

Also, nothing going on with the GFS yet.  

[Terpeast]

Energy coming down from sw canada at 108, stronger than previous runs. Too early to tell

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Ahem.

Lol. JK. 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Dundalk is just the anus of MD period. 

Good year round crab house there.. oh fuck.. I'm talkin bout blue crabs!

Costas Inn

[Terpeast]

Vort consolidating over MT at 120. Less cold press over us. Again too early

[stormtracker]

So overall, at 126, surface is a little anemic all around compared to 12z

[stormtracker]

Don't know if it's slower or what, but flow is a lil more backed out front than 12z

[stormtracker]

Hmmm, interesting look now...slug of precip is pointed more NE  than 12z

[Terpeast]

Gulf moisture coming into TVA, boundary further north. We may have temp issues for jan 22

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Gulf moisture coming into TVA, boundary further north. We may have temp issues for jan 22

I thought Jan. 22-23, there about, was mostly looking like temp issues already anyhow?  And it's mostly just after that where the cold is more in place?

(ETA:  Though true, some previous cycles have shown that to be cold enough I believe).

[bncho]

Jan 22-23 rings a bell from ten years ago...

[TSSN+]

Looks like we are about to get whacked 

[stormtracker]

Temps looking to be cooling with some better moisture so far

[Terpeast]

Feels like a race between cold and precip at 150

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, bncho said:

Jan 22-23 rings a bell from ten years ago...

Yup, our last "true" HECS event area-wide, in 2016.

[stormtracker]

If anything, it's the temps we might have to worry about as of now...still waiting

[bncho]

GFS will be hella close for the metros

[Terpeast]

I’ll let stormtracker take over the rest

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If anything, it's the temps we might have to worry about as of now...still waiting

Precip kinda goes to crap ugh shears out 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I’ll let stormtracker take over the rest

No dude...back me up. I need met verification here

156. it's bascially cold chasing precip...temps trying to come down

[87storms]

Fun looking setup so far with gulf moisture available and cold air incoming, not retreating.

[stormtracker]

850 comes below zero but sfc just nw, with best moisture still sliding to our SE

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it was kind of a mirage.  It's over by 162 sliding S and E

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

850 comes below zero but sfc just nw

1028 hp should be enough 

[stormtracker]

And of course sfc crashes right as the precip heading out

[Terpeast]

Light event. onto the next one

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No dude...back me up. I need met verification here

156. it's bascially cold chasing precip...temps trying to come down

you’ve got this. Kinda hard to do php with a hungry baby demanding more milk