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2026 forecast contest thread -- enter your March 2026 forecasts


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1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

@Rjay @GaWx

I think are the only 2 that have not submitted. Up to folks how they want to handle the late entries (quite a few by just a few hours). I’ll be back early on the 5th so I should be able to post updates, iffy connection at times so hopefully this goes through. Happy 4th everyone!

Thank you, but I don’t think I’m going to do July. I’m currently too busy to take enough time to analyze the data (forecast and historic) well.

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5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

@Rjay @GaWx

I think are the only 2 that have not submitted. Up to folks how they want to handle the late entries (quite a few by just a few hours). Ill be back early on the 5th so I should be able to post updates, iffy connection at times so hopefully this goes through. Happy 4th everyone!

DCA:  +3.0

NYC:  +3.0

BOS:  +3.0

ORD:  +3.0

ATL:  +2.0

IAH:  +2.5

DEN:  +2.0

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +1.0

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On 6/1/2026 at 10:29 PM, so_whats_happening said:

We had quite a bit of moving that took place from last month to this. The contest is still very close so continue to do your best. Here are the annual totals up to the end of May scoring for May can be seen on the previous page.

 

Screenshot 2026-06-01 222857.png

Ok sorry for the delay got back on the 4th and was bombarded by storms, lost power and internet. Then yesterday we had flash flooding still no power, hope it comes back tomorrow.

We had very little movement in numbers. We had a few late entries and they are marked with * 1% for those affected most were 7 points off RJAY ended up only 6 points off the original total so not much of a difference.

I included a consensus number to both GaWx and Stormchaserchuck for the months they were missing to get an idea if they had played through where they would stand in the far right column.

 

Screenshot 2026-07-06 232943.png

Screenshot 2026-07-06 233010.png

Last1mTDeptUS.png

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Im honestly debating on the late entries for this month (July) as it stands these are the forecasts and the what coinciding late entry percentages look like. Ill maul it over and if see if anyone else wants to chime in about it.

Ill see if I can also do a quick update for max temps and where they stand thus far in a week or so.

 

Screenshot 2026-07-06 233742.png

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On 6/8/2026 at 8:42 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Here are the Max Temp forecasts

 

Screenshot 2026-06-08 204125.png

Here some max temp so far

DCA: 103 (7/4) may be challenged tomorrow?

NYC: 100 (7/2)

BOS: 101 (7/2)

ORD: 95 (7/1 & 2)

ATL: 98 (7/2)

IAH: 97 (6/29)

DEN: 97 (several days thus far)

PHX: 113 (several days)

SEA: 91(6/15)

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 7/6/2026 at 11:39 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Im honestly debating on the late entries for this month (July) as it stands these are the forecasts and the what coinciding late entry percentages look like. Ill maul it over and if see if anyone else wants to chime in about it.

Ill see if I can also do a quick update for max temps and where they stand thus far in a week or so.

 

Screenshot 2026-07-06 233742.png

Forgive me on the wrong coloration for the highest and lowest values in each section, didn't even realize it until I went to do scoring today. Here is the updated with the anomalies for each region. Looks the surprises again were NYC and BOS with much cooler anomalies than many thought as well as SEA with a much cooler temp anomaly than expected.

 

Screenshot 2026-08-02 114426.png

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On 7/6/2026 at 11:34 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Ok sorry for the delay got back on the 4th and was bombarded by storms, lost power and internet. Then yesterday we had flash flooding still no power, hope it comes back tomorrow.

We had very little movement in numbers. We had a few late entries and they are marked with * 1% for those affected most were 7 points off RJAY ended up only 6 points off the original total so not much of a difference.

I included a consensus number to both GaWx and Stormchaserchuck for the months they were missing to get an idea if they had played through where they would stand in the far right column.

 

Screenshot 2026-07-06 232943.png

Screenshot 2026-07-06 233010.png

Last1mTDeptUS.png

We saw some fantastic forecasts for July. Scotty Lightning gaining 710 points and was able to move up a slot but really close in on the large grouping we have. BKViking also had another strong forecast for July and managed to move from 4th to 2nd, while DonSutherland1 lost some ground on his strong lead but still holding the first place spot. All bold slots are those with the highest value in that category. As well as updated numbers for GaWx and StormchaserChuck1 on the side had they been involved every month.

Remember we are starting to get into volatile season again so be prepared for some potentially strong movements and shifting of spots as we go into the Super Nino winter. I did not include the late penalties this go around as many would not have seen a significant change in total points taken off. I will do my best to send a reminder about 24 hours in advance so as to not have these penalties arise.

I will add the Conus departures when it updates for me.

Screenshot 2026-08-02 114452.png

Screenshot 2026-08-02 114509.png

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