January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Decent Flurries going on here now.

[John1122]

UKIE remains a "no". 

[bearman]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

UKIE remains a "no". 

On that note, it is bedtime.

[Neals]

1 hour ago, WintryMixmaster said:

 

If the main mechanism to provide lift is the saturated air rising under the 500 mb low and hitting the Plateau/Smokies, should we expect a more distinct area of lower snow totals up the center of the valley? The GFS has a bit of one but it ends just SW of Oak Ridge. Would a higher resolution model probably sharpen that gradient and lower totals from Knoxville northeast along the valley floor?

I live near the state line and looking at that map. It don’t have a warm noise effect this time on the mtns. It looks like a cold column for snow.  

[John1122]

The AI was right on the better runs from tonight with the 500mb vort it looked like but qpf was down slightly for us. 

Euro is winding up well west of prior runs. 

[John1122]

Thought it was worse but went back and looked at 18z, the 0z Euro has about  .05 to .1 more QPF than the 18z had. I went from .10 to .20, other areas in the east also improved. 

[BlunderStorm]

Excellent trends on the 06z NAM. The upper levels show digging into the Missouri bootheel and NE Arkansas at 75 where it was east of the Mississippi at 0z. 84 land shows the beginnings of a lee side low behind the main one which is 250 miles ENE off the space coast (lol). RGEM holds serve mostly. It's been a minute since looking but the surface pressure gradient seemed slightly less positive tilt and overall org a bit smudgier. Cold might be a little punchier if the 500mb  level translates.

[GBOVolz]

Ol’ Carver is downplaying this and he’s going to end up with a foot!  lol!

He’s just looking at what might go wrong which it’s a good idea because you don’t wanna get caught by surprise


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[GBOVolz]

Already putting brine down in Knoxville


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[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

He’s just looking at what might go wrong which it’s a good idea because you don’t wanna get caught by surprise


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100%!  Just giving him a hard time.  For all the time and effort he puts into this board, he deserves a huge snow!

[Carvers Gap]

For TRI folks, the trend on some modeling is that the energy is further west, and that causes the precip to drop south without pivoting over us.  That shifts the pivot further south and west.  Unfortunately, I think some areas(if this is a true possibility) will be rooting for different trends.  At TRI, we do not want this phasing any further west than it is(per the NAM).  One whiff scenario for TRI is that the energy phases further west as it drops south.  The entire storm pivots under TRI, and then up the coast.  For now, the 6z RGEM remains steady w/ its depictions as does the 6z Euro, 6z AIFS, and 6z GFS.  The 6z NAM would 100% be a problem for TRI.

[TellicoWx]

6z AIFS increased totals a little more. If a Lee side does pop and way thermal profile is....this will escalate quickly.

[Greyhound]

Heads up…..John created a thread for this weekends system.


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[Carvers Gap]

After all of that warmth to start the month, the cold has erased almost all of it.  TRI is only +0.4 with likely four cold days left still to input.  TRI should finish BN for temps this month but within the seasonal norm range...which is astounding to me after how warm it was to start the month.  It is very difficult to erase 3 days of mid 60s temps in the norms. It very well could bring the overall winter average to almost exactly normal to this date - December and January combined.  Some wild swings to be be able to pull that off.

[Weatheriscool]

Day four no power. I always do face book live while driving and have been last few days. If anyone wants to see what is going on here, send me a friend request Matthew Rosenboom and a message here so will know who you are

[*Flash*]

40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

After all of that warmth to start the month, the cold has erased almost all of it.  TRI is only +0.4 with likely four cold days left still to input.  TRI should finish BN for temps this month but within the seasonal norm range...which is astounding to me after how warm it was to start the month.  It is very difficult to erase 3 days of mid 60s temps in the norms. It very well could bring the overall winter average to almost exactly normal to this date - December and January combined.  Some wild swings to be be able to pull that off.

BNA just went below by half a degree. Crazy tale of two halves. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I know the weekend system rightfully has our attention but it does look like the feb6-8 time frame is holding legitimate potential as well.

[tnweathernut]

8 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

I know the weekend system rightfully has our attention but it does look like the feb6-8 time frame is holding legitimate potential as well.

We may have a system around that time, but at that range it's like blindfolding a monkey and having him throw snow darts at a US map.   I think we will all be ready (snow or no late week into the weekend) for a break for warmer temps and to see if we can reset for the middle of February and have another opportunity before we are all ready for spring.   JMO

 

Though I will add...................... it would be very Tennessee to whiff on a couple of good snow opportunities and then back into a marginal event during a period we are supposed to warm up.  lol

[Save the itchy algae!]

We may have a system around that time, but at that range it's like blindfolding a monkey and having him throw snow darts

Don’t tempt me with a good time sir.


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[John1122]

Probably time for a February thread. The Euro is already trying to shaft us with a system next week that looks about like this one. Weak sauce here and it buries NE Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Meanwhile, the GFS gives us rain and smokes southern Kentucky with 6 inches. So we are right in the middle of the two, but we know it'll either fade far south or go north.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I fired up a Feb thread. 

[Weatheriscool]

I will be fine if I go rest of season without anything else. Going on day 5 here with no power.