January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Decent Flurries going on here now.

[John1122]

UKIE remains a "no". 

[bearman]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

UKIE remains a "no". 

On that note, it is bedtime.

[Neals]

1 hour ago, WintryMixmaster said:

 

If the main mechanism to provide lift is the saturated air rising under the 500 mb low and hitting the Plateau/Smokies, should we expect a more distinct area of lower snow totals up the center of the valley? The GFS has a bit of one but it ends just SW of Oak Ridge. Would a higher resolution model probably sharpen that gradient and lower totals from Knoxville northeast along the valley floor?

I live near the state line and looking at that map. It don’t have a warm noise effect this time on the mtns. It looks like a cold column for snow.  

[John1122]

The AI was right on the better runs from tonight with the 500mb vort it looked like but qpf was down slightly for us. 

Euro is winding up well west of prior runs. 

[John1122]

Thought it was worse but went back and looked at 18z, the 0z Euro has about  .05 to .1 more QPF than the 18z had. I went from .10 to .20, other areas in the east also improved.