January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[tnweathernut]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Winter isn't over.

It’s possible we whiff the winter, but it’s also possible we are just getting started.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It’s possible we whiff the winter, but it’s also possible we are just getting started.

Yeah, basically what I was saying with different wording, lol. 

[housemtnTN]

Although no snow was extremely lame, we also didn't get hammered with ice. I'm thankful for that. I have a feeling the incoming cold the next few mornings are gonna turn the roads into skating rinks.

[Bigbald]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, I wish there was a way to get its data outside of Storm Vista. 

I tried to find it and "WeatherNext 2" shows up but I could not find anything resembling viewable maps or platform to download something for pay.

What interface are people using it?

[Daniel Boone]

I know this storm turned out to be a disappointment for Folks in the Great Valley and the Winter as a whole so far, if you are a Snow lover. I know some agree while others may not. "Normals" have changed over the Year's. Many look at their particular location, the now, other's the past and see the Winter from those perspective Viewpoints. 

  Seasonal Snowfall Average for Knoxville around the turn of the 20th century was probably around 20", maybe more. Pennington gap for example, averaged 20.7" in the 1950-1980 Data Period and that was one of the lowest elevated areas within the Town Limits AND measured at one location and many times well after the Snow had settled drifted or compacted. Unlike Today's Standards.  

   This Winter has not been the worst so far but has not been great or even up to Par at this Juncture,in comparing past Averages and Today's irt Snow Amounts. All the great Valley is below Average regarding Snowfall even with The Now Average. Not by much for many however, as the "Normal" is so low for much of the Valley. 

   I'm neither a Debbie downer or Optimist but a Realist. My 2 Cents Perspective based on Stats and being an Antique Forecaster. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It’s possible we whiff the winter, but it’s also possible we are just getting started.

Yeah, man. I agree.  While 2/3 of the forum is currently under a winter storm warning...not the time to be calling winter a dud.   Just ride the wave.  

[Golf757075]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, man. I agree.  While 2/3 of the forum is currently under a winter storm warning...not the time to be calling winter a dud.   Just ride the wave.  

I agree. I am hoping things line up for another chance. Definitely don't like cold and dry or don't prefer cold and dry. Its fun tracking them for sure.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, man. I agree.  While 2/3 of the forum is currently under a winter storm warning...not the time to be calling winter a dud.   Just ride the wave.  

That's true. I think the big letdown with this Storm and the earlier misses have just got some rather down. That's understandable. As stated earlier, I've saw Winters that we kept getting shafted and others completely go our way in a big way. We take what we get. Can't change it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

I tried to find it and "WeatherNext 2" shows up but I could not find anything resembling viewable maps or platform to download something for pay.

What interface are people using it?

Storm vista models. 20 bucks a month for the usually models too, but they generally populate model frames the quickest. Not quick enough to be worth 20 a month on top of weatherbell usually. I might do it next month for one month to see how weathernext does though. 

[Carvers Gap]

43 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That's true. I think the big letdown with this Storm and the earlier misses have just got some rather down. That's understandable. As stated earlier, I've saw Winters that we kept getting shafted and others completely go our way in a big way. We take what we get. Can't change it.

But declaring a winter a dud on Jan 25 is JI worthy, especially with a winter storm in progress.  LOL.  

[Math/Met]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Storm vista models. 20 bucks a month for the usually models too, but they generally populate model frames the quickest. Not quick enough to be worth 20 a month on top of weatherbell usually. I might do it next month for one month to see how weathernext does though. 

My curiosity got the best of me. Just subscribed to StormVista for the first time.

[*Flash*]

Ended up with ~3.5 inches of snow/sleet/freezing rain in White Bluff. Yesterday was definitely the day to enjoy the snow. Now it's like walking on an ice shelf. No fun!

Like others, I'm also concerned about the drought continuance, but I will say this. Maybe the NW trend will be out friend just one time before the winter is over. I'm perfectly fine playing the role of the Ohio River should another Fern emerge to our south/southeast on modeling. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

If you just need to live vicariously....The Broncos vs Patriots game has gone from sunshine to near blizzard conditions.  The cold is here for a bit!

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If you just need to live vicariously....The Broncos vs Patriots game has gone from sunshine to near blizzard conditions.  The cold is here for a bit!

I just mentioned that in the other thread. lol!  I love it.!

I sure hope Cohen is right. Cold thru mid February!  Winter is young with plenty of weeks to go!  Gotta say please no more ice.  It’s an iceberg here.  Luckily power has came back & hopefully stays on. 

[Matthew70]

9 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Ended up with ~3.5 inches of snow/sleet/freezing rain in White Bluff. Yesterday was definitely the day to enjoy the snow. Now it's like walking on an ice shelf. No fun!

Like others, I'm also concerned about the drought continuance, but I will say this. Maybe the NW trend will be out friend just one time before the winter is over. I'm perfectly fine playing the role of the Ohio River should another Fern emerge to our south/southeast on modeling. 

 

 

Yep this ice is no fun.  I Definitely walk like a penguin taking dog out.  Staying away for our big trees also.  Cracking & popping. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro has found the upcoming weekend system again:

 

 

Euro AI has it too:

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The WesatherNext2 has it too, at about the same amount of suppression. 

[WintryMixmaster]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

But declaring a winter a dud on Jan 25 is JI worthy, especially with a winter storm in progress.  LOL.  

Sorry, I should've been more clear with that post. I was trying to say that this winter (at least for Knoxville) has been as bad as it can get (I mean, you can't do worse than 0.0" with multiple winter storm setup teases) but that there's plenty of time for it to change and it just takes one storm to turn a winter from awful to amazing. I wasn't trying to imply that I think it will or won't get better, just venting frustration with how things have gone to this point.

On a side note, one thing that always stood out to me about this forum from my time as a lurker is that while posters get understandably frustrated when we whiff on storms or have a bad winter, there's an appreciation for the snow that we do get however minor in amount or duration and a genuine love of meteorology. Growing up reading the accuweather forums for the NYC metro area, it was crazy how many posters acted like a whiff on a snowstorm or a mild winter meant that it would never snow again. Even if this winter does turn out to be a dud, there's always next winter and the one after that. 

[fountainguy97]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z Euro has found the upcoming weekend system again:

 

 

Euro AI has it too:

 

 

 

 

Atleast this one is suppressed at this range. We can deal with that. 

[Carvers Gap]

41 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Sorry, I should've been more clear with that post. I was trying to say that this winter (at least for Knoxville) has been as bad as it can get (I mean, you can't do worse than 0.0" with multiple winter storm setup teases) but that there's plenty of time for it to change and it just takes one storm to turn a winter from awful to amazing. I wasn't trying to imply that I think it will or won't get better, just venting frustration with how things have gone to this point.

On a side note, one thing that always stood out to me about this forum from my time as a lurker is that while posters get understandably frustrated when we whiff on storms or have a bad winter, there's an appreciation for the snow that we do get however minor in amount or duration and a genuine love of meteorology. Growing up reading the accuweather forums for the NYC metro area, it was crazy how many posters acted like a whiff on a snowstorm or a mild winter meant that it would never snow again. Even if this winter does turn out to be a dud, there's always next winter and the one after that. 

Thank you. All is good!

[Carvers Gap]

46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z Euro has found the upcoming weekend system again:

 

 

Euro AI has it too:

 

 

 

 

Kind of wonky synoptics, but as @tnweathernutmentioned…we may be exiting the window where models lose stuff.  Seems like the GFS has something similar.   If I had to guess…that area of very BN heights is causing the disturbance.   85 had similar occurrences where very cold air masses spawned snow storms. 

[Carvers Gap]

52 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

18z Euro has found the upcoming weekend system again:

 

 

Euro AI has it too:

 

 

 

 

Did that phase?  Sure like a partial phase.  Not sure there is much room to jog northwest, but the pieces are there for a storm.  That strong are of BN heights can sometimes (often times?) trigger snow along the front.  If it grabs a piece of STJ energy - good things.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did that phase?  Sure like a partial phase.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Do we dare wish for and earlier phase?  I see Baja energy…

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Do we dare wish for and earlier phase?  I see Baja energy…

We dare. 

[tnweathernut]

26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kind of wonky synoptics, but as @tnweathernutmentioned…we may be exiting the window where models lose stuff.  Seems like the GFS has something similar.   If I had to guess…that area of very BN heights is causing the disturbance.   85 had similar occurrences where very cold air masses spawned snow storms. 

What will be interesting to watch here will be the flow coming out of Canada, IMO. The current storm trended well west with the northern stream from day 7 to day 3.  This time, I think the amount of westward trend potential is likely muted.  There are some weak impulses in the southern stream, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities this storm, if real, can come west some.