January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[*Flash*]

Also, for the record, I'm really bummed seeing the amount of pro/TV/AMS mets plastering eye candy snow maps without beneficial context to the public. I'm not looking to purify my feeds per se, but if I see a local met or influencer page not communicating within due diligence, my tendency to unfollow/snooze. Weather is more enjoyable without the bias. Hype is fine once confidence is high enough to support it. 

[nrgjeff]

And just like that the 12Z RRFS lines up with the GFS south. (Blanks Chatty.) I think they will get their snow in contrast to the Euro No. Euro might be a higher resolution but some of the GFS code still captures small perturbations. Euro is king of the extended, but we are getting into the time period when the GFS is useful.

More granular discussion, RRFS splits the difference between the NAM right up on the Apps and the GFS closer to the coast. RRFS makes sense for a central GA to Piedmont snow. Should I just goto the Southeast forum? Nah, Tennessee still has the Friday night Saturday am snow showers, lol!

Plus the Southeast forum is like a Super Walmart on a Saturday afternoon. 

[Bigbald]

It truely is remarkable how often we go from a good looking solution 8-10 days out, to medicore as 6 days approach...to hopefully we can get 1-3 inches 4-5 days.... at 48 hrs maybe we can see some flakes ha.

Yet it almost never works in the reverse.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Bigbald said:

It truely is remarkable how often we go from a good looking solution 8-10 days out, to medicore as 6 days approach...to hopefully we can 1-3 inches 4-5 days.... at 48 hrs maybe we can see some flakes ha.

Yet it almost never works in the reverse.  

Yeppers. So is the life of a Snow lover in the Tn Valley, lol.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Well unless something changes it looks like im driving to Wears Valley from Charlotte for the weekend (not snow related) just to miss the snow at home lol. 

 

I am also rooting for the NW trend with you guys. 

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Well unless something changes it looks like im driving to Wears Valley from Charlotte for the weekend (not snow related) just to miss the snow at home lol. 

 

I am also rooting for the NW trend with you guys. 

If it makes you feel any better, you'd probably miss it in Charlotte too.....    lol

[GBOVolz]

Mods sometimes have trouble with under doing the precipitation shield on the NW side. Not saying we are still in the game but I’m struggling to find some outs.


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[GBOVolz]

I’m not familiar with these two mods but….



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[GBOVolz]

https://x.com/brady_wx/status/2011850116487893414?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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[UnionCountyNCWX]

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

If it makes you feel any better, you'd probably miss it in Charlotte too.....    lol

Yea after the 12z runs you have a great point lol. 

[Bigbald]

8 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

https://x.com/brady_wx/status/2011850116487893414?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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I have no doubt AI weather modeling will soon figure it out and weather following as we know it will look much different.  

In 2 years of owning a self driving car I basically had a front row seat watching how fast this stuff transforms.  The early versions of the self driving car were damn near scary at times.  The newest rendition is like having a perfect chaffeur drive me.  That transformation occurred in less than 2 years.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Bigbald said:

I have no doubt AI weather modeling will soon figure it out and weather following as we know it will look much different.  

In 2 years of owning a self driving car I basically had a front row seat watching how fast this stuff transforms.  The early versions of the self driving car were damn near scary at times.  The newest rendition is like having a perfect chaffeur drive me.  That transformation occurred in less than 2 years.

I'm not going to disagree some of the advancements are mind boggling, but what is the limit for weather?  I'm not sure it happens soon in the weather world, but if it did............ I'd welcome it.

 

[nrgjeff]

So far I consider AI models other tools in the tool belt. They are not any better at daily forecasting, but they are as good. Just depends on the system and set-up.

AI has been known to catch long-range pattern changes first. But when we get to storm mode, they are just other models. Then when we get inside a few days I prefer high resolution stuff.

Remind me to avoid the Southeast except the Mountains thread which is pretty good. We need GaWx back in here so I don't have to wander into the SE abyss for his thoughts. 

[Bigbald]

4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I'm not going to disagree some of the advancements are mind boggling, but what is the limit for weather?  I'm not sure it happens soon in the weather world, but if it did............ I'd welcome it.

 

It could save us all alot of sleep and heartache ha.  I am honestly surprised it hasnt happened sooner for Ai weather when you consider driving a car has big safety consequences for getting it wrong.    

[nrgjeff]

I'm punting this weekend locally. Still looks good Plateau and Mountains. 

End of January modelling just came in significantly colder. Confidence increases on another cold snap. We'll see if we can get a storm, but the cold looks pretty likely.

[Carvers Gap]

Whew!  The new washing machine is installed and operational.  Hopefully, no more laundromats for a bit!  Though, I am jealous of the speed that a person can do laundry in those places.  We washed and dried 6 loads in one hour!  I know - Dear Facebook.

Modeling continues to honk at very cold weather between the d8-12 mark.  Sometimes modeling has overdone the cold at this range.  But for now, some really cold temps on the 12z Euro and GEM as Jeff mentioned.  Both of those models have identified cold snaps pretty well this season.  For now, the day8-10 window looks good for a winter event, but you all know the rules...roughly between the 24th-27th. 

I do think one flaw that we need to be watchful for...cold has been oversold on modeling all winter OR completely missed.  Usually the solution is a cold front, but is modified from the original version.  Probably the case this time, but...every once in a while strong cold fronts are under-modeled! 

The TPV getting trapped looks legit.  We need a wave to ride the Arctic front if that front verifies.  That is the big ticket!  Great discussion.  I have enjoyed reading it.  

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I'm not going to disagree some of the advancements are mind boggling, but what is the limit for weather?  I'm not sure it happens soon in the weather world, but if it did............ I'd welcome it.

 

I think three dimensional modeling(forecasts and not radar) like an MRI is what the next big thing will be.  I do fear altering weather patterns will also be a part of that matrix.  There are already machines which enhance snowfall in western WY.  I hope we never reach a time where we know the weather to the point that there are no surprises.

[Carvers Gap]

The interesting thing will be this for the weekend.  Now that modeling is downplaying the coastal storm...I wonder if the front itself in the Tenn Valley gets a bit more juice added back?  

[Carvers Gap]

The biggest thing is that northern stream vortices are out of phase w/ STJ energy.  The EURO AIFS shows what happens when they are in phase.  

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The interesting thing will be this for the weekend.  Now that modeling is downplaying the coastal storm...I wonder if the front itself in the Tenn Valley gets a bit more juice added back?  

Yeah, been thinking the same thing. You'd think more should get pulled along the Front.

[Matthew70]

45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think three dimensional modeling(forecasts and not radar) like an MRI is what the next big thing will be.  I do fear altering weather patterns will also be a part of that matrix.  There are already machines which enhance snowfall in western WY.  I hope we never reach a time where we know the weather to the point that there are no surprises.

Machinery that enhances snow?  You mean snow making machines for the slopes?

[Wurbus]

Even the SREF plumes backed off at 3pm for East TN compared to 9am. At 9am we probably had around 10 plumes showing a decent snowfall for Knoxville. Now, there are only 2 showing a good snowfall. I'm still hoping a miracle can happen, but trends definitely are not looking good (shocking I know).

[Carvers Gap]

12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Machinery that enhances snow?  You mean snow making machines for the slopes?

Ground based and airborne cloud seeding.   Probably is not a conversation for this thread, but in WY they utilize silver iodide to enhance snowfall in the Salt Range in order to help squeeze out water from systems.  I have always wondered how that affects downstream weather, ie the system has less precip after it is treated.  I have seen the ground based system in Star Valley, WY.  It is near Grover up on a hill.  It is the snowiest place in that entire valley.

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/12/08/not-voodoo-wyoming-expands-cloud-seeding-amid-prolonged-drought/