January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I particularly liked the 995mb low over the GA blue ridge with no snow anywhere in the eastern US.

The great thing is the 18z GFS seems to have figured out that the trough has to kick out if under an EPO ridge like that.  Just wait till 0z, we will have something new!  Haha.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wait a minute, I was wrong. I found some snow on the COD algorithm 

[Weatheriscool]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The EPO ridge hasn't been delayed as of yet.  We lost a couple of cold fronts on the 4th and 8th.  This has been moving pretty steadily in time.  But we all obviously know the rules.  Most of the folks here are pretty solid veterans when it comes to flip flops.  

Well, the wetness has continued 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Wait a minute, I was wrong. I found some snow on the COD algorithm 

AAannnnddddd weatherbell:

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Well, the wetness has continued 

We will see.  The GFS is relying on the ridge being over the East and return flow from the Gulf.  The trends right now are bit time towards a trough over the East on that model.  That model is incrementally caving IMHO.  If so, the trend would be much more dry.

[Golf757075]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The EPO ridge hasn't been delayed as of yet.  We lost a couple of cold fronts on the 4th and 8th.  This has been moving pretty steadily in time.  But we all obviously know the rules.  Most of the folks here are pretty solid veterans when it comes to flip flops.  

This is the true current pdo if anyone is interested. 

[Carvers Gap]

The deterministic GFS over the last four runs has shifted the 500 pattern about 500-1100 miles eastward depending on the feature.  

[Golf757075]

21 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

This is the true current pdo if anyone is interested. 

Also, this Niña is now east based with the colder anomalies off of south america/Peru region. Typically when that occurs, we will see colder later than earlier in winter. 21-22 is a small example. Doesn't guarantee that, but have seen it before

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS Euro ensemble is pretty much awesome.  Big ridge out West, and big trough over the East.  Makes sense.

[Carvers Gap]

[Carvers Gap]

The actual EPO is to supposed to build Jan 8-9th.  So, that transition is well within ten days.  Right now, that ridge building starts at about 180.  The transition to that ridge is arueably occurring now.

[Golf757075]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Carver, ultimately we will see if the aifs ensembles are really that good compared to everything else. I still believe too many models to content with lol

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Carver, ultimately we will see if the aifs ensembles are really that good compared to everything else. I still believe too many models to content with lol

The 12z EPS and GEPS have this as well.  AI models can be sketchy for sure - completely unknown.  I am not sure they are actually "learning.".  I like the EURO AIFS better than the AIGFS(seems not overly rigorous) FWIW.  The 18z GEFS continues to trend the rest of the other ensembles w/ the eastern trough.  The good thing is the EPO ridge moving into position is almost 7 days out.  I will feel a lot more confident once it sets up shop.  The NAO has verified as pretty strong...so good sign modeling is handling blocking well.

We have definitely tracked patterns which fizzle.  Let's hope this isn't one of them.  We have also tracked many patterns which eventually verify.  Good info on the ENSO and PDO regions - thank you!

[Carvers Gap]

GEFS trends from 0z to 18z.  Pretty big moves.