January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

12z is a bit more interesting in terms of winter wx.  The GFS is again stronger with the Jan2 cold front.   Both the the GEM and GFS hint at WAA right after.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIGFS is a fun pattern.  Cold with chances.

[AMZ8990]

Yeah those pictures from out west at Mammoth are insane, whoever’s skiing this weekend is getting their moneys worth!!  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro really wants to get rid of the Aleutian high.  By roughly 162, it pretty much begins the process of wiping it out within hours.   The run ends w/ the EPO hooking into the NAO.  Now, I am not saying that is gonna happen, but if that does...that is the gold standard.

[Carvers Gap]

And the 12z AIGFS does exactly the same thing as the 12z Euro. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Yeah those pictures from out west at Mammoth are insane, whoever’s skiing this weekend is getting their moneys worth!!  

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago.  I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now.  Their storm total is 67" so far.  It is hugely important for California.  The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada.  We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless.  The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE.  The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be.  I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!!

Their ski season was in serious danger.  The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented.  So, getting this much snow will save their season.  The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind.  It looks like most of the lifts are closed.  I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve.  

My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event.  Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there.  Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way.  But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places.  We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it.  It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth.  If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine. 

[Carvers Gap]

Some decent storm looks.  As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted about this time frame....definitely some ingredients in place for one or more storms.  That trough east of Hawaii is usually money.

Image 1: D11-16 AIGFS

Image 2:  Day 10-15 Euro

Image 3:  The end of the Euro run and not an uncommon look across modeling at 12z.

 

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago.  I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now.  Their storm total is 67" so far.  It is hugely important for California.  The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada.  We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless.  The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE.  The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be.  I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!!

Their ski season was in serious danger.  The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented.  So, getting this much snow will save their season.  The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind.  It looks like most of the lifts are closed.  I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve.  

My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event.  Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there.  Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way.  But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places.  We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it.  It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth.  If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine. 

I am also a huge Yellowstone NP fan.  I plan to go out to Lake Tahoe & Yosemite.  My brother loves Oregon on the coast.  White Knuckle driving.  There was that in parts of Yellowstone.  Not a fan of heights but I manage.  

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I am also a huge Yellowstone NP fan.  I plan to go out to Lake Tahoe & Yosemite.  My brother loves Oregon on the coast.  White Knuckle driving.  There was that in parts of Yellowstone.  Not a fan of heights but I manage.  

We did the southwest coast of Oregon....huge fan!  I like YNP...the crowds have been bad lately.  The Sierra Nevada and Oregon Coast have a lot more room to spread out, even if parking lots are crowded.  We fished in places where we saw maybe 5-10 total on the trail all day and only one other angler.  The southwest coast of Oregon is a blast.  Bucket lists are the Alps of Italy and Crested Butte to see the Alpine Meadows during late June and early July. Boulder and Alamosa for running for sure.  Fairbanks as well.  I have too many bucket list items for my checkbook!  LOL.

Does anyone know why the GEM is running late today?  It looks like it is hung-up at 100ish....

[iluvsnow]

I flew into Fairbanks with my daughter 3 June's ago. Always a bucket list thing for me too, but could never get my wife to agree. so my snow loving daughter who lives in Denver invited me to go. Spent 2 days in Fairbanks, took a rental car about 20 miles up the Dalton highway, saw the pipeline and so many moose we lost count. Being a sales guy before retirement, I made it a point to ask residents why they lived there. The cold, dark and snow was the answer from virtually all....men, women of all ages. Loved it. The 24 hours of sunlight was a bit freaky to get used to, but other than that, terrific. Took the Alaska Railway then from Fairbanks to Denali...stayed there 3 days...then back on the train to Anchorage to complete the journey. The drive along the bay in Anchorage is unforgettable with snow covered mountains on one side and the ocean on the other. Another area we like is the Whitefish, Glacier area of Montana....but only after Labor Day. Too many people in the summer.

[Matthew70]

28 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

I flew into Fairbanks with my daughter 3 June's ago. Always a bucket list thing for me too, but could never get my wife to agree. so my snow loving daughter who lives in Denver invited me to go. Spent 2 days in Fairbanks, took a rental car about 20 miles up the Dalton highway, saw the pipeline and so many moose we lost count. Being a sales guy before retirement, I made it a point to ask residents why they lived there. The cold, dark and snow was the answer from virtually all....men, women of all ages. Loved it. The 24 hours of sunlight was a bit freaky to get used to, but other than that, terrific. Took the Alaska Railway then from Fairbanks to Denali...stayed there 3 days...then back on the train to Anchorage to complete the journey. The drive along the bay in Anchorage is unforgettable with snow covered mountains on one side and the ocean on the other. Another area we like is the Whitefish, Glacier area of Montana....but only after Labor Day. Too many people in the summer.

My brother loves Alaska more than any other.  He just went to the Alps, Turkey, Italy.  He’s been all over Europe. 

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z GEM(finally finished its run) and the GFS have a weak slider around Jan 4-5.  Could be something and could be nothing.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just uncanny that you all talked about the 1982 ice storm, and the 18z GFS rolls with that slider w/ ice on the south side.  FWIW, the 12z GEM had almost the exact solution.  Long way out there at 200 hours, but it is inside of d10.

[Matthew70]

Strange how some say the models show nothing winter wise.  They say they want winter yet are always negative.  I believe they are just trolls.  

[jaxjagman]

There is plenty of blocking into Mongolia/Russia,the problem to me is with the blocking into the Barents Sea.But the EPS looks better to me than yesterday,its much colder into Canada.It would even be better  that the blocking into Barents goes into the Greenland Sea.But i guess it's baby steps maybe,we got rid of the Bering Sea ridge and now have a active STJ as @Houston mentioned

[beavis1729]

52 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Strange how some say the models show nothing winter wise.  They say they want winter yet are always negative.  I believe they are just trolls.  

I don’t think they are trolls; they just have higher standards (myself included). In my area, we had a great 10-day period from November 29-December 8, but we have not seen one flake of snow since then. And, no snow cover since December 10. This is in line with my earlier comments where the good periods can be fantastic here, but then things just seem to shut down completely for weeks at a time, especially in recent winters. I would prefer more stability and “decent” periods simply due to the calendar saying DJF, instead of all or nothing.  

Based on the fast start to winter, it was looking like a lock for a white Christmas, but ended up not being close at all. 

Most of it is frustration, combined with “show me the money”. To me and many others, cold without snow cover feels like a waste. That’s why people want to see chances of snow to accompany the upcoming cold. 

My post isn’t intended to come across as complaining; just trying to acknowledge the situation and also hope for the best!
 

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I don’t think they are trolls; they just have higher standards (myself included). In my area, we had a great 10-day period from November 29-December 8, but we have not seen one flake of snow since then. And, no snow cover since December 10. This is in line with my earlier comments where the good periods can be fantastic here, but then things just seem to shut down completely for weeks at a time, especially in recent winters. I would prefer more stability and “decent” periods simply due to the calendar saying DJF, instead of all or nothing.  

Based on the fast start to winter, it was looking like a lock for a white Christmas, but ended up not being close at all. 

Most of it is frustration, combined with “show me the money”. To me and many others, cold without snow cover feels like a waste. That’s why people want to see chances of snow to accompany the upcoming cold. 

My post isn’t intended to come across as complaining; just trying to acknowledge the situation and also hope for the best!
 

You’re good.  To me winter is not just having snow.  To me it’s cold & with snow thrown in every so often.  Winter is the only time we really get cold & it’s nice to not be sweating.  I feel December has been great up until this warm period.  Below is a pic of the Grand Tetons today.  I absolutely love the mountain west.  I hope everyone enjoys the pic. 

[Golf757075]

43 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

There is plenty of blocking into Mongolia/Russia,the problem to me is with the blocking into the Barents Sea.But the EPS looks better to me than yesterday,its much colder into Canada.It would even be better  that the blocking into Barents goes into the Greenland Sea.But i guess it's baby steps maybe,we got rid of the Bering Sea ridge and now have a active STJ as @Houston mentioned

Jax, in all seriousness, do you like where we are going and do you think the pattern will be more favorable by mid January?

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I don’t think they are trolls; they just have higher standards (myself included). In my area, we had a great 10-day period from November 29-December 8, but we have not seen one flake of snow since then. And, no snow cover since December 10. This is in line with my earlier comments where the good periods can be fantastic here, but then things just seem to shut down completely for weeks at a time, especially in recent winters. I would prefer more stability and “decent” periods simply due to the calendar saying DJF, instead of all or nothing.  

Based on the fast start to winter, it was looking like a lock for a white Christmas, but ended up not being close at all. 

Most of it is frustration, combined with “show me the money”. To me and many others, cold without snow cover feels like a waste. That’s why people want to see chances of snow to accompany the upcoming cold. 

My post isn’t intended to come across as complaining; just trying to acknowledge the situation and also hope for the best!
 

I'm kinda like you,screw the cold if its not gonna snow.Kinda of like a cross hair tho,if you dont have cold you dont have snow.Our predicted high in Nashville is 74 Sunday,the record here is 75 back all the way into 1874,that's nuts

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Golf757075 said:

Jax, in all seriousness, do you like where we are going and do you think the pattern will be more favorable by mid January?

Better than whats its been,we are getting rid of "The Pig" like @Flashcalled the Bering Sea ridge,just getting rid of that is a still a plus,we are fixing to have an active STJ,which could produce,just dont want to bury it or its hoping for clippers,we just live in precarious part of the lower 48 generally in winter there is a cutoff 1-40N-S,we just have to have the perfect setup,its not easy as many people think in Tn,alot can go wrong

[Golf757075]

19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Better than whats its been,we are getting rid of "The Pig" like @Flashcalled the Bering Sea ridge,just getting rid of that is a still a plus,we are fixing to have an active STJ,which could produce,just dont want to bury it or its hoping for clippers,we just live in precarious part of the lower 48 generally in winter there is a cutoff 1-40N-S,we just have to have the perfect setup,its not easy as many people think in Tn,alot can go wrong

The issue is we don't get alot of clippers, especially where I am. Its been a long time since we have seen a clipper here. 

[Golf757075]

21 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Better than whats its been,we are getting rid of "The Pig" like @Flashcalled the Bering Sea ridge,just getting rid of that is a still a plus,we are fixing to have an active STJ,which could produce,just dont want to bury it or its hoping for clippers,we just live in precarious part of the lower 48 generally in winter there is a cutoff 1-40N-S,we just have to have the perfect setup,its not easy as many people think in Tn,alot can go wrong

I hope we will get at least a 2 week window of opportunities for snow and ice. We definitely live in a interesting part of the USA when it comes to winter weather. I would take an -epo and take my chances lol

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

The issue is we don't get alot of clippers, especially where I am. Its been a long time since we have seen a clipper here. 

Yeah it not easy for you guys,its all with the trough axis and this has alot to do with the NAO,we never do good here in Mid Tn with clippers,we get very little and watch them explode as it gets  into the Cumberland

[Coach B]

Finally getting a bit of a signal on the 18Z GEFS:

 

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah it not easy for you guys,its all with the trough axis and this has alot to do with the NAO,we never do good here in Mid Tn with clippers,we get very little and watch them explode as it gets  into the Cumberland

I wouldnt be to concerned with a ice storm,maybe next winter,We in Mid Tn and W/TN get ice storms from a NINO not NINA,plus this a more East based LaNina,the east gets all that  and more than likely more snow

[Golf757075]

36 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I wouldnt be to concerned with a ice storm,maybe next winter,We in Mid Tn and W/TN get ice storms from a NINO not NINA,plus this a more East based LaNina,the east gets all that  and more than likely more snow

I think we actually get more icestorms from niñas because we get a -epo and the se ridge comes into play, stalling the fronts. I would take an icestorm over nothing lol

[Golf757075]

I heard the euro weeklies looked pretty good

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah it not easy for you guys,its all with the trough axis and this has alot to do with the NAO,we never do good here in Mid Tn with clippers,we get very little and watch them explode as it gets  into the Cumberland

I remember clippers always being good back in the day 80’s & 90’s.  We had that one that totally paralyzed Nashville.  Schools went & we ended up close to 8” when the forecast was calling for 1-3”.  It took forever for me to get my wife home from Greenhills to Hermitage.  It took between 7-8 hours.  Then we had to park a half mile & walk home.  We lived in an area where cars were down in the gully & could not get out.  There was like 8-10 cars that got stuck down in there. Maybe it’s my age that is showing.  I’m 55 & don’t let not getting snow bother me anymore.  I love a beautiful snow & am thankful to see each one. I see my neighbors who are 70’s & realize that will be me in the blink of an eye.  Time truly goes faster the older you get but I also feel one pauses & takes in the special times.  Like driving around with my young adult kids to look at lights this year.  I used to never take it all in. I do hope we get some beautiful snow only thing is my kids will be at their colleges.  Hopefully one day I have grandkids to play with in the snow or take to look at Christmas lights. 

[Matthew70]

13 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

I heard the euro weeklies looked pretty good

 The weeklies have been Bi polar as of lately.  lol.  Be cautious with why they are showing.  lol. Though hoping they have treated their bi polar personality & are back on track. 

[Golf757075]

Just now, Matthew70 said:

 The weeklies have been Bi polar as of lately.  lol.  Be cautious with why they are showing.  lol. Though hoping they have treated their bi polar personality & are back on track. 

I agree. I wished they ran only twice a week liked they used to lol.