January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

12z is a bit more interesting in terms of winter wx.  The GFS is again stronger with the Jan2 cold front.   Both the the GEM and GFS hint at WAA right after.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIGFS is a fun pattern.  Cold with chances.

[AMZ8990]

Yeah those pictures from out west at Mammoth are insane, whoever’s skiing this weekend is getting their moneys worth!!  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro really wants to get rid of the Aleutian high.  By roughly 162, it pretty much begins the process of wiping it out within hours.   The run ends w/ the EPO hooking into the NAO.  Now, I am not saying that is gonna happen, but if that does...that is the gold standard.

[Carvers Gap]

And the 12z AIGFS does exactly the same thing as the 12z Euro. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Yeah those pictures from out west at Mammoth are insane, whoever’s skiing this weekend is getting their moneys worth!!  

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago.  I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now.  Their storm total is 67" so far.  It is hugely important for California.  The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada.  We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless.  The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE.  The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be.  I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!!

Their ski season was in serious danger.  The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented.  So, getting this much snow will save their season.  The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind.  It looks like most of the lifts are closed.  I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve.  

My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event.  Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there.  Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way.  But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places.  We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it.  It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth.  If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine. 

[Carvers Gap]

Some decent storm looks.  As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted about this time frame....definitely some ingredients in place for one or more storms.  That trough east of Hawaii is usually money.

Image 1: D11-16 AIGFS

Image 2:  Day 10-15 Euro

Image 3:  The end of the Euro run and not an uncommon look across modeling at 12z.

 

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago.  I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now.  Their storm total is 67" so far.  It is hugely important for California.  The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada.  We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless.  The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE.  The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be.  I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!!

Their ski season was in serious danger.  The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented.  So, getting this much snow will save their season.  The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind.  It looks like most of the lifts are closed.  I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve.  

My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event.  Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there.  Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way.  But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places.  We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it.  It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth.  If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine. 

I am also a huge Yellowstone NP fan.  I plan to go out to Lake Tahoe & Yosemite.  My brother loves Oregon on the coast.  White Knuckle driving.  There was that in parts of Yellowstone.  Not a fan of heights but I manage.  

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I am also a huge Yellowstone NP fan.  I plan to go out to Lake Tahoe & Yosemite.  My brother loves Oregon on the coast.  White Knuckle driving.  There was that in parts of Yellowstone.  Not a fan of heights but I manage.  

We did the southwest coast of Oregon....huge fan!  I like YNP...the crowds have been bad lately.  The Sierra Nevada and Oregon Coast have a lot more room to spread out, even if parking lots are crowded.  We fished in places where we saw maybe 5-10 total on the trail all day and only one other angler.  The southwest coast of Oregon is a blast.  Bucket lists are the Alps of Italy and Crested Butte to see the Alpine Meadows during late June and early July. Boulder and Alamosa for running for sure.  Fairbanks as well.  I have too many bucket list items for my checkbook!  LOL.

Does anyone know why the GEM is running late today?  It looks like it is hung-up at 100ish....

[iluvsnow]

I flew into Fairbanks with my daughter 3 June's ago. Always a bucket list thing for me too, but could never get my wife to agree. so my snow loving daughter who lives in Denver invited me to go. Spent 2 days in Fairbanks, took a rental car about 20 miles up the Dalton highway, saw the pipeline and so many moose we lost count. Being a sales guy before retirement, I made it a point to ask residents why they lived there. The cold, dark and snow was the answer from virtually all....men, women of all ages. Loved it. The 24 hours of sunlight was a bit freaky to get used to, but other than that, terrific. Took the Alaska Railway then from Fairbanks to Denali...stayed there 3 days...then back on the train to Anchorage to complete the journey. The drive along the bay in Anchorage is unforgettable with snow covered mountains on one side and the ocean on the other. Another area we like is the Whitefish, Glacier area of Montana....but only after Labor Day. Too many people in the summer.

[Matthew70]

28 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

I flew into Fairbanks with my daughter 3 June's ago. Always a bucket list thing for me too, but could never get my wife to agree. so my snow loving daughter who lives in Denver invited me to go. Spent 2 days in Fairbanks, took a rental car about 20 miles up the Dalton highway, saw the pipeline and so many moose we lost count. Being a sales guy before retirement, I made it a point to ask residents why they lived there. The cold, dark and snow was the answer from virtually all....men, women of all ages. Loved it. The 24 hours of sunlight was a bit freaky to get used to, but other than that, terrific. Took the Alaska Railway then from Fairbanks to Denali...stayed there 3 days...then back on the train to Anchorage to complete the journey. The drive along the bay in Anchorage is unforgettable with snow covered mountains on one side and the ocean on the other. Another area we like is the Whitefish, Glacier area of Montana....but only after Labor Day. Too many people in the summer.

My brother loves Alaska more than any other.  He just went to the Alps, Turkey, Italy.  He’s been all over Europe. 

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12z GEM(finally finished its run) and the GFS have a weak slider around Jan 4-5.  Could be something and could be nothing.