January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

12z is a bit more interesting in terms of winter wx.  The GFS is again stronger with the Jan2 cold front.   Both the the GEM and GFS hint at WAA right after.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z AIGFS is a fun pattern.  Cold with chances.

[AMZ8990]

Yeah those pictures from out west at Mammoth are insane, whoever’s skiing this weekend is getting their moneys worth!!  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro really wants to get rid of the Aleutian high.  By roughly 162, it pretty much begins the process of wiping it out within hours.   The run ends w/ the EPO hooking into the NAO.  Now, I am not saying that is gonna happen, but if that does...that is the gold standard.

[Carvers Gap]

And the 12z AIGFS does exactly the same thing as the 12z Euro. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Yeah those pictures from out west at Mammoth are insane, whoever’s skiing this weekend is getting their moneys worth!!  

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago.  I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now.  Their storm total is 67" so far.  It is hugely important for California.  The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada.  We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless.  The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE.  The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be.  I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!!

Their ski season was in serious danger.  The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented.  So, getting this much snow will save their season.  The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind.  It looks like most of the lifts are closed.  I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve.  

My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event.  Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there.  Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way.  But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places.  We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it.  It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth.  If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine. 

[Carvers Gap]

Some decent storm looks.  As @Holston_River_Ramblernoted about this time frame....definitely some ingredients in place for one or more storms.  That trough east of Hawaii is usually money.

Image 1: D11-16 AIGFS

Image 2:  Day 10-15 Euro

Image 3:  The end of the Euro run and not an uncommon look across modeling at 12z.

 

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, @John1122shared some posts about it a few years ago.  I am hooked on watching atmospheric river events now.  Their storm total is 67" so far.  It is hugely important for California.  The Los Angeles Water District gets a ton of water from the east slops of the Sierra Nevada.  We traveled out there last summer - mainly because the outdoor opportunities are just about endless.  The city of Mammoth is a decent size, but it is REMOTE.  The hiking there is pretty incredible, and the scenery is about as close to what I would imagine the Alps would be.  I am a huge Yellowstone NP fan, but this area might top that - plus no grizzlies!!!

Their ski season was in serious danger.  The ground was bare which is pretty unprecedented.  So, getting this much snow will save their season.  The webcams there are wild today w/ the wind.  It looks like most of the lifts are closed.  I know they have to pack and groom a lot of those slopes since bare ground was their prior to Christmas Eve.  

My hope is to one day travel out there during an atmospheric river event.  Plane tix into Vegas are cheap if you are willing to drive the 6 hours from there.  Reno is the better airport(only three hours), and you can see Lake Tahoe on the way.  But man, those mountain drives are no joke in places.  We really enjoyed Yosemite NP at Tioga Pass, a white knuckle drive but worth it.  It is only about 1.5 hours from Mammoth.  If you like fly fishing alpine streams - no place better I don't imagine. 

I am also a huge Yellowstone NP fan.  I plan to go out to Lake Tahoe & Yosemite.  My brother loves Oregon on the coast.  White Knuckle driving.  There was that in parts of Yellowstone.  Not a fan of heights but I manage.