Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Superstorm]

Euro starting to cave to GFS?


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[AccuChris]

18z Euro definitely trended to a more potent coastal and negative tilted trough. Not perfect but a big change from 12z


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[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

18z Euro definitely trended to a more potent coastal and negative tilted trough. Not perfect but a big change from 12z


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I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter. 

[AccuChris]

I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter. 

18z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap


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[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro just made a not insignificant move in a positive direction. To clarify, it's much wetter in the LSV. 

It is trying to tuck the low more than 12z and it def made a big step closer to the GFS once it’s further out to sea. GFS still earlier with phasing/storm development that translates to the big amounts it puts out. Main mechanism for us is still the inverted trough, which was more robust with that run. Our “benchmark” for a coastal low is on top the Delmarva or at least right along/near the coast. 

 

[AccuChris]

It is trying to tuck the low more than 12z and it def made a big step closer to the GFS once it’s further out to sea. GFS still earlier with phasing/storm development that translates to the big amounts it puts out. Main mechanism for us is still the inverted trough, which was more robust with that run. Our “benchmark” for a coastal low is on top the Delmarva or at least right along/near the coast. 
 

Totally agree…typically a bombing low tucked at the mouth of the Chesapeake to the mouth of Delaware Bay blasts the area


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[canderson]

Well we are suppose to be in NYC Sunday. I’m over this winter I think. 

[Blizzard of 93]

55 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Euro starting to cave to GFS?


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Great to see this unexpected turn of events… usually it’s the other way around!

0z will be interesting to say the least!

[Blizzard of 93]

18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z EPS snow map had a solid uptick as well at 18z over 12z.