Superstorm Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro starting to cave to GFS?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z Euro definitely trended to a more potent coastal and negative tilted trough. Not perfect but a big change from 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, AccuChris said: 18z Euro definitely trended to a more potent coastal and negative tilted trough. Not perfect but a big change from 12z . I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter. 18z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro just made a not insignificant move in a positive direction. To clarify, it's much wetter in the LSV. It is trying to tuck the low more than 12z and it def made a big step closer to the GFS once it’s further out to sea. GFS still earlier with phasing/storm development that translates to the big amounts it puts out. Main mechanism for us is still the inverted trough, which was more robust with that run. Our “benchmark” for a coastal low is on top the Delmarva or at least right along/near the coast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago It is trying to tuck the low more than 12z and it def made a big step closer to the GFS once it’s further out to sea. GFS still earlier with phasing/storm development that translates to the big amounts it puts out. Main mechanism for us is still the inverted trough, which was more robust with that run. Our “benchmark” for a coastal low is on top the Delmarva or at least right along/near the coast. Totally agree…typically a bombing low tucked at the mouth of the Chesapeake to the mouth of Delaware Bay blasts the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Well we are suppose to be in NYC Sunday. I’m over this winter I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 55 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro starting to cave to GFS? . Great to see this unexpected turn of events… usually it’s the other way around! 0z will be interesting to say the least! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The 18z EPS snow map had a solid uptick as well at 18z over 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 0z NBM & NBM Para both show Warning level snow potential in the LSV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I’ve been on the road traveling for work this week, but the tracking for this event has been wild. Check out the Euro AI on TT and how much the coastal low moved northwest vs 12Z. This season has not disappointed on the tracking front! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 0z NAM already looking better. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, AccuChris said: 0z NAM already looking better. . Definitely a step in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 0z NAM doesnt get it done but 12z this morning it literally had no storm at all…progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 0z NAM doesnt get it done but 12z this morning it literally had no storm at all…progress . 24 hours ago the NAM had a low moving east off Jacksonville. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Insane ensemble graphic for 78 hours out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro ensembles Heatmap of relative low pressure density. First 12z, second 18z, 3rd is heatmap of change Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Insane ensemble graphic for 78 hours out Nice 18z GEFS uptick in the snow map to correspond with the low clusters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Insane ensemble graphic for 78 hours out That's a hell of a lot tighter than Euro. Seeing that and trends last few hours makes me lend more credence to GFS. This whole storm is hilariousSent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, MAG5035 said: It would be an all-time coup for the GFS if its persistent bomb solution came to fruition. But aside from all that.. again there continues to be solid support on most guidance and ensembles for a widespread light to moderate event via the ULL/inverted trough in C-PA even if the coastal ultimately does pop off and track way SE out to sea. I think we’re all in solid shape for a 2-5” type event right now, with the potential for a bit more within eventual placement of mesoscale features associated with the inverted trough setup. What will need to be watched for in the more likely, lighter snow event scenario is timing and rates. This event doesn’t look particularly cold, especially in the earlier stages. Timing seems to be centering on first half of this event possibly occurring during the day Sunday. Later February solar’s getting to a point where a light snowfall rate with temps near freezing won’t accumulate as well. Obviously, more moderate rates will likely be fine, as will whatever snow lingers into a good part of the night Sunday. That could add a bit more range where folks that end up stuck in the light rates see more like an inch vs being in what will likely be a couple of heavier bands that could help deliver a higher end advisory or more. Or the GFS could be right, that would be good too. 18z euro and 0z nam starting to cave to GFS look. Not sure they concede fully, but a compromise is still a win for the GFS if the trends continue. IF the GFS pulls off even a partial win, it will just make model watchin all the more "interesting" moving forward. Read somewhere that the GFS gets a big update later this year. I think I was lookin at MA thread for some comic relief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Canceled our nyc trip and sold our tickets. You’re welcome. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, Superstorm said: Euro starting to cave to GFS? . saw the maps, and after rereading your post a few time to take in the anomalous nature of your statement, it looks like GFS might be lead dog in this race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, canderson said: Well we are suppose to be in NYC Sunday. I’m over this winter I think. Or just stop traveling so damn much in winter and sit back, pour a cold one and enjoy the friggin snow. just a thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time. saw that earlier. What a year for modelwatchin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Definitely a step in the right direction just toggled through the panels, and yeah, it started off the 0z's in a better way. Hoping the rest of them keep the welcome trends, but gut says GFS ticks east soon. Time for some narrowing of the goalposts, as we are inside 3 days and nearing short term. Lets hope for some good stuff tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 36 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 0z NAM doesnt get it done but 12z this morning it literally had no storm at all…progress . It's definately coming around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago RGEM well west vs its 18Z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: just toggled through the panels, and yeah, it started off the 0z's in a better way. Hoping the rest of them keep the welcome trends, but gut says GFS ticks east soon. Time for some narrowing of the goalposts, as we are inside 3 days and nearing short term. Lets hope for some good stuff tonight. I’m not fully convinced GFS goes east based on its 18Z ensembles. We will find out shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: That's a hell of a lot tighter than Euro. Seeing that and trends last few hours makes me lend more credence to GFS. This whole storm is hilarious Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Yeah looking at that tight cluster one would think 0z would surely come W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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