Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Superstorm]

Euro starting to cave to GFS?


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[AccuChris]

18z Euro definitely trended to a more potent coastal and negative tilted trough. Not perfect but a big change from 12z


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[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

18z Euro definitely trended to a more potent coastal and negative tilted trough. Not perfect but a big change from 12z


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I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter. 

[AccuChris]

I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter. 

18z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap


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[MAG5035]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro just made a not insignificant move in a positive direction. To clarify, it's much wetter in the LSV. 

It is trying to tuck the low more than 12z and it def made a big step closer to the GFS once it’s further out to sea. GFS still earlier with phasing/storm development that translates to the big amounts it puts out. Main mechanism for us is still the inverted trough, which was more robust with that run. Our “benchmark” for a coastal low is on top the Delmarva or at least right along/near the coast. 

 

[AccuChris]

It is trying to tuck the low more than 12z and it def made a big step closer to the GFS once it’s further out to sea. GFS still earlier with phasing/storm development that translates to the big amounts it puts out. Main mechanism for us is still the inverted trough, which was more robust with that run. Our “benchmark” for a coastal low is on top the Delmarva or at least right along/near the coast. 
 

Totally agree…typically a bombing low tucked at the mouth of the Chesapeake to the mouth of Delaware Bay blasts the area


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[canderson]

Well we are suppose to be in NYC Sunday. I’m over this winter I think. 

[Blizzard of 93]

55 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Euro starting to cave to GFS?


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Great to see this unexpected turn of events… usually it’s the other way around!

0z will be interesting to say the least!

[Blizzard of 93]

18z EPS had a significant jump west over its 12z run. That’s a few hundred miles in one run. We still need a little more to get into GFS territory, but you rarely see the EPS jump this much so close to game time.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z EPS snow map had a solid uptick as well at 18z over 12z.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z NBM & NBM Para both show Warning level snow potential in the LSV.

[GrandmasterB]

I’ve been on the road traveling for work this week, but the tracking for this event has been wild. Check out the Euro AI on TT and how much the coastal low moved northwest vs 12Z. This season has not disappointed on the tracking front! 

[AccuChris]

0z NAM already looking better.


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[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, AccuChris said:

0z NAM already looking better.


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Definitely a step in the right direction 

[AccuChris]

0z NAM doesnt get it done but 12z this morning it literally had no storm at all…progress


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[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

0z NAM doesnt get it done but 12z this morning it literally had no storm at all…progress


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24 hours ago the NAM had a low moving east off Jacksonville. 

[GrandmasterB]

Insane ensemble graphic for 78 hours out 

[Jns2183]

Euro ensembles Heatmap of relative low pressure density. First 12z, second 18z, 3rd is heatmap of change

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Insane ensemble graphic for 78 hours out 

Nice 18z GEFS uptick in the snow map to correspond with the low clusters.