Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

@MAG5035 & everyone else!

Check out the 0z Euro for the Sunday pm chance. Great run for CTP.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Canadian is still on board as well  & has not wavered much the last couple of days.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z EPS & 0z AI EPS got back on board as well.

[Voyager]

Interesting little temp spike this morning. It was 30 at 4:00am, then it went up to 36 at 5:00am, and now back down to 33 at 5:45am.

[mahantango#1]

36 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Interesting little temp spike this morning. It was 30 at 4:00am, then it went up to 36 at 5:00am, and now back down to 33 at 5:45am.

Were in the middle of a heatwave!

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Canadian is still on board as well  & has not wavered much the last couple of days.

NWS will tend to disagree with you.

[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

NWS will tend to disagree with you.

It’s not me…

I am showing what the models said…

Also, I posted their discussion from yesterday evening & CTP was certainly monitoring the potential. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s not me…

I am showing what the models said…

I know, seems they are really downplaying the event this morn.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I know, seems they are really downplaying the event this morn.

If the 12z models are board, they will be updating again later today.

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the 12z models are board, they will be updating again later today.

Theres still time to score, no need for the hail-mary...yet.

[mahantango#1]

Mark Margavage 

snrteoSodpc56184g68hfgu24988l1al14mc584h0h8mhfh2m0t7l7a1i151 ·

Weekend Storm Update

Despite what you might have heard…I am STILL tracking the potential for a significant snow event this weekend. If it happens, the snow would arrive Sunday afternoon/evening. Model Guidance has been all over the place but I’ve been fairly consistent with my message: This looks like a Miller B Nor’Easter.

Miller B storms typically have a mix line that sets up along I-78/I-80 in eastern PA and NJ.

The European Model suggests that mix changes over to heavy snow as this storm strengthens.

Whether or not that actually happens is pure speculation at this point. There are some non-linear processes that need to go exactly correct for this storm to produce significant snow. If not, the storm could miss off to the south. So nothing is set in stone yet, but the threat remains.

~Meteorologist Mark Margavage

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro continues to be on board with a slightly warmer & more tucked low position near the DelMarVa before it exits off of the coast.

It still brings warning level snow to the Harrisburg area this run.

If we end up with this track, I like our chances.

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro continues to be on board with a slightly warmer & more tucked low position near the DelMarVa before it exits off of the coast.

It still brings warning level snow to the Harrisburg area this run.

If we end up with this track, I like our chances.

I guess if it verified it would be a heavy wet snow.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 29 with no signs of measurable precip. Not holding my breath for the late weekend storm but will still be monitoring closely. Would give my left pinky for Blizz’s 0z Euro map to verify. 

[MickeyTim6533]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 29 with no signs of measurable precip. Not holding my breath for the late weekend storm but will still be monitoring closely. Would give my left pinky for Blizz’s 0z Euro map to verify. 

6z euro dashed some hopes, looks like a rainer

[mahantango#1]

Capital Weather Gang 

Favorites ·onpoeSdtsr2u4l317cuu6t2aig97mmcu7hccu0uug23m88mtufh416121th5 ·

* An extreme winter in D.C. — the harshest in at least a decade *

The Midwest Regional Climate Center tracks seasonal harshness using the Accumulated Winter Severity Index, which accounts for both the intensity and longevity of cold and snow.

So far this winter, D.C.’s rating on the 0–5 scale: 5 — Extreme.

That’s the highest rating here in the past 10 years.

Even if the rest of winter turns mild, the damage is done. Based on what we’ve already endured, the season is locked in at at least a 4 — Severe.

[MickeyTim6533]

[Blizzard of 93]

6z AI EPS beefed back up to what it had been showing consistently for days up until 2 days ago, but it’s good to see it back on board at 0z & especially 6z. 

The 6z Regular EPS is on board too.

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Canadian is still on board as well  & has not wavered much the last couple of days.

 

CMC has been sniffin this one out from early on.  

How many times have we seen the models lose the storm in the mid range, only to bring it back/north as we get closer to the event.  

I was LOL'n yesterday with some of the its done/over stuff.  This weekends potential event is a perfect example of many storms of the past.

Going to be interesting to see CTP updates after overnighters-assuming the norther trends continue. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the 12z models are board, they will be updating again later today.

and wiping egg off their face.  They largely bailed yesterday morning, and dipped toe back in da water overnight, but covered all bases.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Theres still time to score, no need for the hail-mary...yet.

agreed.  its friggn 2/11/26 and peeps sorta seem checked out.  If its because they've had and enjoyed this winter so far....that's just great, but climo says 5 more weeks minimum (oh and that furry brown varmint).

Spring is comin soon, but enough signals suggest early is not likely.  

[mahantango#1]

JB is not changing his stance on this potential storm coming north...yet. 

The Euro at 06z is coming back, but now its north. It was shoved south yesterday. This is why I have not changed my idea on this until I see this get into the west coast. So only long range forecast, that started on the 4th has not changed yet for this potential. If I have to change it I will change it once but not till I see the reality of the feature that arrives Thursday or Friday, not with every flipping model run

That does not say I am right. Every one of you who has written this off COULD BE SPOT ON RIGHT!!! You may have had it all the way and I would have been wrong all the way. So I am not saying you are wrong. Nor am I critical of you because you have the opposite stand to mine. I just wonder if you would quit if you were looking at it the way I do. You see, I see what you do. I see all the models too. But the weather is the greatest teacher of what the apostle Paul said:" Those who know what they know don't know what they ought to know". That goes for me. If on Friday I have to eat crow, it means I did not know what I ought to know. But what you ought to know is never obvious, and in a way ,modeling is something obvious.. The consensus is always there. So I see it just like you. I am just showing that perhaps there is merit in taking the time to take a stand and holding it until you are sure. So I am not good enough to be sure that I was wrong, and still think after the work put in I could be right. So until I see what things look like tomorrow and Friday, no changes in this idea that started Feb 4

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB is not changing his stance on this potential storm coming north...yet. 

The Euro at 06z is coming back, but now its north. It was shoved south yesterday. This is why I have not changed my idea on this until I see this get into the west coast. So only long range forecast, that started on the 4th has not changed yet for this potential. If I have to change it I will change it once but not till I see the reality of the feature that arrives Thursday or Friday, not with every flipping model run

That does not say I am right. Every one of you who has written this off COULD BE SPOT ON RIGHT!!! You may have had it all the way and I would have been wrong all the way. So I am not saying you are wrong. Nor am I critical of you because you have the opposite stand to mine. I just wonder if you would quit if you were looking at it the way I do. You see, I see what you do. I see all the models too. But the weather is the greatest teacher of what the apostle Paul said:" Those who know what they know don't know what they ought to know". That goes for me. If on Friday I have to eat crow, it means I did not know what I ought to know. But what you ought to know is never obvious, and in a way ,modeling is something obvious.. The consensus is always there. So I see it just like you. I am just showing that perhaps there is merit in taking the time to take a stand and holding it until you are sure. So I am not good enough to be sure that I was wrong, and still think after the work put in I could be right. So until I see what things look like tomorrow and Friday, no changes in this idea that started Feb 4

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. 

With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.  

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. 

With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.  

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Seems like every winter we go through this several times, trying to determine if the storm is coming north. Time will tell if we get this one. I hope we do. But something tells me we won't. So I guess it's 50, 50 right now.

Yessir.  every year for as long as we can remember. 

Even as a weenie, when you do things long enough you get a feel for how things can (and often do) happen/evolve given certain parameters.  Point is...to write something off at 6 days, well that's just silly, especially when there are no overwhelming signals one way or the other.  Much atmospheric flux right now.  

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and that MU dude wrote it off with his arrogant undertones yesterday....so there's that. 

With NAO headed pos, my worry is and has been that this thing lifts far enough to wash away my hopes for white gold.  

I don't think I've ever rooted harder for a storm to hit us.   

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

6z euro dashed some hopes, looks like a rainer

By the way, thanks for taking my post yesterday and copy pasting it in other forums. Just when I think you can't get worse, you find new ways to do just that. 

[ChescoWx]

Today will be our mildest day since January 22nd with temps well into the 30's to near 40 degrees. Which in reality is not too far from average for the date. We chill back to near freezing for highs both Thursday and Friday before we turn a bit milder by the weekend. There is still some potential for snow toward Sunday evening as a couple models have moved a little closer toward that solution.

[Itstrainingtime]

34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and wiping egg off their face.  They largely bailed yesterday morning, and dipped toe back in da water overnight, but covered all bases.

I said last week that this coming weekend had my interest. Suppression just doesn't seem to fit the current regime. I'm much more concerned about over-amped than a whiff south.