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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


MAG5035
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Weekend Storm Update
Despite what you might have heard…I am STILL tracking the potential for a significant snow event this weekend. If it happens, the snow would arrive Sunday afternoon/evening. Model Guidance has been all over the place but I’ve been fairly consistent with my message: This looks like a Miller B Nor’Easter.
Miller B storms typically have a mix line that sets up along I-78/I-80 in eastern PA and NJ.
The European Model suggests that mix changes over to heavy snow as this storm strengthens.
Whether or not that actually happens is pure speculation at this point. There are some non-linear processes that need to go exactly correct for this storm to produce significant snow. If not, the storm could miss off to the south. So nothing is set in stone yet, but the threat remains.
~Meteorologist Mark Margavage
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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z Euro continues to be on board with a slightly warmer & more tucked low position near the DelMarVa before it exits off of the coast.

It still brings warning level snow to the Harrisburg area this run.

If we end up with this track, I like our chances.

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I guess if it verified it would be a heavy wet snow.

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May be a graphic of text that says '500 This winter is the most severe in at least a decade in D.C. Season: 2025 -12-0 to 2026- 02- 02-08, 70 days 400 2025- 2026 AWSSI (Current Season) 2024- 2024-2025 -2025 AWSSI 2023-2024AWSSI 2024 AWSSI -2024AWSSI 2022 2022-2025A51 2022-2023 -2023 AWSSI 2021-2022 1-2022AWSSI -2022 AWSSI 2020- 2020-2021A -2021AWSSI 2021 AWSSI 2019-2020 -2020AWSS AWSSI 2018-2019/ 2019AWSS AWSSI 2017-2018A AWSSI 2016-2017 AWSSI 2015- 2015-2016 -2016AWSS -2016 AWSSI Extreme Severe Average Moderate Mild 300 200 Extreme 100 2025-2026, Severe 0 09/01 10/01 Average Moderate 11/01 12/01 Mild 01/01 02/01 © Midwestern Regional Climate Center 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01'

* An extreme winter in D.C. — the harshest in at least a decade *
The Midwest Regional Climate Center tracks seasonal harshness using the Accumulated Winter Severity Index, which accounts for both the intensity and longevity of cold and snow.
So far this winter, D.C.’s rating on the 0–5 scale: 5 — Extreme.
That’s the highest rating here in the past 10 years.
Even if the rest of winter turns mild, the damage is done. Based on what we’ve already endured, the season is locked in at at least a 4 — Severe.
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