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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


MAG5035
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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Eyeballing 1.5” at 5 am.

CTP has removed the word sleet from Harrisburg’s grid forecast; 8-14” predicted  still. Crossing fingers to get to 12”. 

yep I noticed the totals went up I was thinking the whole time with this deep artic fresh air they were over doing it with sleet. Tho I was outside recently and noticed the cold snow sounds like sleet in same areas these are the storms I remember the most big storms or blizzards in the very cold weather the snow is so frozen you can hear it fall.

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38 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Just got up (4:30am), so I don't know when it started, but eyeballing a half inch under moderate snow.

Temp is a balmy 8 degrees here.

Looking at the historical graph from my weather station, temp held steady at 11 degrees until 3:05am when it started a decline to the current 8.1 degrees. I figure that's probably when it started here in my backyard.

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Snowing nicely here in Akron over 1" threshhold.  Morning NAM has me up to 16".  Looks like is gonna be heavy rates before we ping.

Lets have furn w/ whatever we get, and NO Ruin, its not sleeting yet.  Get more coffee, sit back and relax.

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I dont feel like going out and seeing how much it snowed so far lol. but its down to 11 degrees down 2 in the last hour. lower then forecast that was 14. I dunno if we will get the they high of 22 at this rate with heavy precip 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

One last look at the Euro at 6z just before game time started overnight.

It still crushes the LSV with 13 to 16 and actually improved slightly for York & Lanco over its last run.

6z Euro regional & local view.

IMG_1736.png

IMG_1737.png

Blizz, don’t you think that has to be over done for MDT and points south and east? I mean I’m praying and all but the mesos aren’t in the 12-16 range! 

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5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Blizz, don’t you think that has to be over done for MDT and points south and east? I mean I’m praying and all but the mesos aren’t in the 12-16 range! 

Every one of the them but the NAM seem to be holding at 15-17 inches here, but...the caveat is that I'm probably farther northeast from any potential mixing. Not saying it can't, or won't, happen, but I suppose it's less likely here.

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Every one of the them but the NAM seem to be holding at 15-17 inches here, but...the caveat is that I'm probably farther northeast from any potential mixing. Not saying it can't, or won't, happen, but I suppose it's less likely here.

You’re in a great spot. I don’t think you end up mixing at all. 

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4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Blizz, don’t you think that has to be over done for MDT and points south and east? I mean I’m praying and all but the mesos aren’t in the 12-16 range! 

Yes, it is likely overdone, but it is never a bad thing to have the Euro on your side. It gives a range of outcomes.

The general rule is if a model is on its own, it’s likely wrong, so that is my thinking with the NAM.
Every other short range & global model says we get more. The reality will likely be somewhere in between.

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Right around 3” across the runway from CXY. Had to leave Dillsburg to make it in before the heavy stuff. Roads weren’t terrible, but not great either. A surprising amount of folks were out. Took me about 45 minutes to get here. Making some breakfast and then waiting for a couple more inches before we get started. Good luck to everyone, stay safe!

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it is likely overdone, but it is never a bad thing to have the Euro on your side. It gives a range of outcomes.

The general rule is if a model is on its own, it’s likely wrong, so that is my thinking with the NAM.
Every other short range & global model says we get more. The reality will likely be somewhere in between.

It'll be nice to get it. But given the radar, Southwest is starting to dry up a bit. Unless it fills in, it looks like this. Snow's gotta cut off a little earlier

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6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

It'll be nice to get it. But given the radar, Southwest is starting to dry up a bit. Unless it fills in, it looks like this. Snow's gotta cut off a little earlier

Are you kidding me? Look at the moisture feed coming up from all the way down in Houston. Not to mention the fact that it's snowing all the way back out west to Missouri.

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32 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Blizz, don’t you think that has to be over done for MDT and points south and east? I mean I’m praying and all but the mesos aren’t in the 12-16 range! 

I just let grandpup out and got wood.  I was surprised as I'm already over 3" in akron.  Plows just made first pass.  Very happy so far.  

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