Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Warning:  The NAM is running.  Hide the women and children.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Warning:  The NAM is running.  Hide the women and children.

And Elliott.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Warning:  The NAM is running.  Hide the women and children.

Since the kids are out of earshot feel free to swear with wreckless abandon. 

[AccuChris]

Warning:  The NAM is running.  Hide the women and children.

Im fully clenched


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

No real changes thru 24 to these eyes.

[Lucy Pull]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

No real changes thru 24 to these eyes.

Hard for me to draw any conclusions either. Heights look higher in front but not sure if it’s just speeding up the southern vort a little bit. Would like that vort to be a little less amped though like 12z.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

By 1pm sleet overtakes much of our forum, even ahead of 18z pace, with 6-9" having fallen.

[canderson]

The NAM might be correct about this warm push. It really cuts back on snow totals to the south.

 

edit I mean southern MD/VA south 

[Lucy Pull]

This run is like a hybrid of 12z and 18z. Stronger southern vort like 18z but less kinking back of heights as it gains latitude. Looks like it will be closer to 18z result though.

[paweather]

Ridin with the GFS until I can’t 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Primary is just too amped.  Nam would be a downer for sure, given expectations, but it definitely does some wonky things from frame to frame.  I dont know, but if it scores a victory here......damn.

[WmsptWx]

Weathermen gonna take one on the chin here.

[canderson]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

Weathermen gonna take one on the chin here.

If the nam is right they should just shut down the GFS. 

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

If the nam is right they should just shut down the GFS. 

I think that's the least of their concerns. A large bust given our current social environment where the people have just gotten more and more toxic, and you're going to have public emergencies when something actually does occur because we're crying "Wolf" too much.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I think that's the least of their concerns. A large bust given our current social environment where the people have just gotten more and more toxic, and you're going to have public emergencies when something actually does occur because we're crying "Wolf" too much.

There is no bust yet

[Itstrainingtime]

A good chunk of Lanco is sub 6" on the NAM.

[Lucy Pull]

FV3 still much colder than NAM. Sleet line further north than prior run though.

[WmsptWx]

[Blizzard92]

Obviously much higher QPF event back in 2007, but does anyone recall the breakdown of pure sleet (vs. snow / freezing rain) accumulation in the Valentine's Day storm across the LSV?

[WmsptWx]

From the MA thread 

 

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

Obviously much higher QPF event back in 2007, but does anyone recall the breakdown of pure sleet (vs. snow / freezing rain) accumulation in the Valentine's Day storm across the LSV?

I'll look when I get home next weekend but I vividly remember measuring 4.1" of sleet in Maytown.

[Itstrainingtime]

When I climb the eastern seaboard in 6-7 days to come home, I'm going drag a big fat Miller A up the coast with me. Heh.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

From the MA thread 

 

I hope all the jumpers read this twice. 
 

[SnowPlowGuy88]

I was hoping for a nice long duration, high total event. Went from going in early Sunday morning to thinking I can get away with coming in around lunchtime. Just thought with 24+hours of snow that 18-24 was approachable. This is a thankless job/hobby. Glad to only have one site to worry about vs the previous 8-12 I had to deal with at my other employer. Stakes aren’t as high now, but I do want the big one. So much fun

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I hope all the jumpers read this twice. 
 

Exactly!

[mahantango#1]

Down to 10 degrees already here.

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

Obviously much higher QPF event back in 2007, but does anyone recall the breakdown of pure sleet (vs. snow / freezing rain) accumulation in the Valentine's Day storm across the LSV?

I remember there being enough sleet packed into the ground that my car was stuck into a glacier for three days. 

 

Then my landlord sent his dumbass sons to my apartment parking lot to free cars from the ice by using 2x4s and my left rear sent a wooden plank into an idiots ankle. 

 

I probably told that story on your Wunderground blog lol.

[WmsptWx]

I will say this: It's cold. No matter what happens, whatever falls is staying and I am issuing a "Dog Balls Spatula" warning effective right now until probably February 2nd. 

 

I'll try to care enough in a few hours to articulate a graphic. 

[pasnownut]

Just now, paweather said:

Exactly!

And I may eat crow for saying that, but if one is merely model watchin and basin thoughts on 6 hr outputs, there are 5 more runs to consider, so buckle up. Some of us weenies throw a little more at it than that. In the end it may not matter but I don’t live and die by 6 hr outputs. I will not cut bait till 18z tomorrow.  

[MAG5035]

1 minute ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

I was hoping for a nice long duration, high total event. Went from going in early Sunday morning to thinking I can get away with coming in around lunchtime. Just thought with 24+hours of snow that 18-24 was approachable. This is a thankless job/hobby. Glad to only have one site to worry about vs the previous 8-12 I had to deal with at my other employer. Stakes aren’t as high now, but I do want the big one. So much fun

This storm has definitely sped up a bit both in onset time and ending time now that we’re getting into the near term forecasting of it, which is pretty common with these type of storms. It looks like the business end of this occurs in a bit under 24 hours now, arriving in the LSV approx 2-3am Sunday and starting to shut off midnight-1am or so Monday.