Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MAG5035]

GFS did get a tad NW with the snow/sleet line compared to its 18z run, getting into a portion of Lancaster and maybe extreme southern York. Still a plenty big enough hit for everyone. Top end down a slight bit area-wide, basically 18-19” (Kuchera) for everyone. 

[WmsptWx]

Just now, 2001kx said:

from pitt forum

 

Altoona the big winner lol

[Blizzard of 93]

Still ongoing snow at hour 81

[GrandmasterB]

Blizz is in the lab cooking up this number

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Altoona the big winner lol

Altoona’s never won anything, ever. 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

from pitt forum

 

 

Kuch is a tad lower than HH , but we'd all still sign as depicted.  taint line at 10pm sunday night cuts Lanco in 1/2, but thermals crash after and save the day.  Trend is a tad warmer, but not unreasonable.  

edit - i see mag just basically said same thing. Smart minds.....

[WmsptWx]

Just now, canderson said:

Altoona’s never won anything, ever. 

I take my kid to the Luigi Mangione Memorial McDonalds in Toontown every time we're there after the trampoline park or arcade. I'll consider a statue of where he was sitting similar to the Ronald McDonald statue in front of the old Playplaces victory enough lol.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Blizz is in the lab cooking up this number

Put me down for 12.3 at MDT.

That would bring MDT’s seasonal total to an even 20 inches for the season to date. It also guards against mixing punching a a little further north than anticipated. As @MAG5035 mentioned, it also protects me in case MDT has one of their annual bad measurements.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z is crushing for all of us.

[GrandmasterB]

official, and I hope I lose by a lot!

User	Prediction
canderson	12.8
2001kx	14.5
nut	13.9
Festus	17
Bud Bundy	8.2
SnowPlowGuy88	22
MJS	15.5
Yardstick goes somewhere	19.3
Jns	17.5
Carlisle	19.59
paweather	16
pawatch	16.4
ITT	14.2
717lover	13.1
Subliminal87	16.87
Wmsptwx	0.01
MAG	15
Blizz	12.3

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP close up 0z GFS

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Altoona’s never won anything, ever. 

Lol, certainly not in the 20”+ inch snowstorm department. It’s been since probably 1994 that one of those has happened here in the city itself. ‘96, ‘03, and ‘10 were all 16-18” events and Jan 2016, Dec 2020, and Feb 2021 were about a foot. 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

official, and I hope I lose by a lot!

User	Prediction
canderson	12.8
2001kx	14.5
nut	13.9
Festus	17
Bud Bundy	8.2
SnowPlowGuy88	22
MJS	15.5
Yardstick goes somewhere	19.3
Jns	17.5
Carlisle	19.59
paweather	16
pawatch	16.4
ITT	14.2
717lover	13.1
Subliminal87	16.87
Wmsptwx	0.01
MAG	15
Blizz	12.3

A friggin dude hangin out in Fla, is boxin me in w/ .3" wiggle room for the win.  .

I hope I'm way off (and low).  Were starting to get close enough and theres enough continuity that I'll be giddy no matter how "off" I am.

[GrandmasterB]

Canadian looks just a touch better to me at 0Z vs. 12Z.  Still has the primary into Pitt and sleet into Lanco, but I thought the progression was an ever so slight improvement.

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

A friggin dude hangin out in Fla, is boxin me in w/ .3" wiggle room for the win.  .

I hope I'm way off (and low).  Were starting to get close enough and theres enough continuity that I'll be giddy no matter how "off" I am.

Blizz going lower than MAG...surprising.

[WmsptWx]

Shit. Did I say a trace? I meant 30" lol.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol, certainly not in the 20”+ inch snowstorm department. It’s been since probably 1994 that one of those has happened here in the city itself. ‘96, ‘03, and ‘10 were all 16-18” events and Jan 2016, Dec 2020, and Feb 2021 were about a foot. 

You,Wmspt (in Huntingdon) up to Nepa/mahantango/voyager look to be in cat bird seat IMO.  Thermally safe, and prob a bit of lift to help bump yas into the hi end accums. 

Pullin for yas while I take my 13.9 at MDT to da bank.

 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Canadian looks just a touch better to me at 0Z vs. 12Z.  Still has the primary into Pitt and sleet into Lanco, but I thought the progression was an ever so slight improvement.

agreed.  Slight improvement from 12z.  CAD did its thing and only twds end did we taint down here.  Goalposts are narrowing, and were all still in them.

Good enough for me to sleep on.

Hoping Euro ticks a touch colder (which seems like general consensus of 0z so far).  Runnin outta ticks till bomb goes off.  

gnight kids. 

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Blizz going lower than MAG...surprising.

Just cause some of us love and want snow often, doesnt mean we expect the biggest totals.  

He...like me....enjoys the thrill of the chase and enjoy the chatter on the board.  I think, he like me, doesnt  care if were ever the highest total.  We just like snow. 

Yall can fight over the biggest numbers.  

speaking of kooky numbers, tug webcams have shown it snowing for the last 4 days.  Soon we get ours and will be lookin similar to them. 

 

[paweather5]

I 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, paweather5 said:

I 

Can you please post Ukie Kuchera snow map?

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just cause some of us love and want snow often, doesnt mean we expect the biggest totals.  

He...like me....enjoys the thrill of the chase and enjoy the chatter on the board.  I think, he like me, doesnt  care if were ever the highest total.  We just like snow. 

Yall can fight over the biggest numbers.  

speaking of kooky numbers, tug webcams have shown it snowing for the last 4 days.  Soon we get ours and will be lookin similar to them. 

 

My total I went with is a lot higher than my actual expectation. It's more of a gamble and what I want. This may be another controversial statement, but I would be perfectly happy with nineteen inches less than what I went with. That's how much I really love the snow man.

[Yardstickgozinya]

 To say that, I'm expecting a lot less than my 19.3 is an overstatement In reality, I'm still expecting an extremely nice to maybe even historic event. 

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Still ongoing snow at hour 81

yeah before it was to end around midnight-2am monday mronign latest model run still had it snowing moderate at 7am

[Ruin]

43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Can you please post Ukie Kuchera snow map?

lol no way a mix goes up that far north 

[Jns2183]

lol no way a mix goes up that far north 

It's still 15-17_

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Yardstickgozinya]

23 minutes ago, Ruin said:

lol no way a mix goes up that far north 

Diddy lube.

[Ruin]

49 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Diddy lube.

I mean if you use or bought it the fbi will be on its way

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Another forecast discussion should be available in about an 1.5 hours, but I still feel this was a pretty interesting read, with a lot more explanation then generally seen. It's a very lengthy discussion, so I only posted part of it here, the rest will be in the link if anybody wants to read it before the next update. 

 

436

FXUS61 KCTP 230420

AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

1120 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Increasing chances for heavy snow this weekend. More details

  provided in discussion section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from

northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning

2) Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and

widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday

night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday.

3) Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and subzero wind

chills expected next Monday all the way through next weekend.          &&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.Arctic air is poised to return to the forecast area - filtering in from northwest to southeast through Friday night. High confidence in -10 to -20F wind chills across all of central PA Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning approaching extreme cold criteria in the Laurel Highlands. Frigid Arctic air will remain in place prior to the onset of the significant winter storm this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. Snow accumulations will likely begin with a vengeance from south to north in the predawn hours Sunday. Periods with snowfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour are becoming increasingly likely in the isentropic ascent early Sunday and as low and midlevel frontogenesis becomes stronger later in the day and evening. Given the dry, fluffy snow and wind gusts of 15-30 mph, there will likely be some blowing and drifting. There could be a period of sleet especially across the southern tier Sunday evening cutting into snow totals just a bit, but not before double digit accumulations are expected to fall.While warm advective, front-end snow is becoming increasingly likely, there is considerable model uncertainty with the placement of a comma head area of snowfall as a secondary low pressure system develops offshore (in a Miller B type evolution). If the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night, several additional inches of accumulation are possible. However, if it misses us to the north and we see more of a dry slot, that would result in snow ending sooner Sunday evening with less accumulation overnight.

All in all, the probability of snowfall amounts exceeding 12inches has increased to 60-80 percent across much of central PA. The probability of more than 18 inches ranges from 15 to 40 percent. Amounts near 24 inches can`t be ruled out (10 percent chance) especially if the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night. Always prepare for the worst case scenario and continue to check the forecast as it evolves. Now is the time to prepare. Think snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember it will be very cold before, during and after the storm. Never run a generator indoors due to carbon monoxide.

Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we are predicting the most significant accumulations.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Yardstickgozinya]

 I decided to go ahead and post the rest of the the discussion I'm thinking some of you fellas might like it archived here. 

Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we
are predicting the most significant accumulations in the past
5+ years, feel free to read on through the remainder of this KEY
MESSAGE 2 discussion. We`ve had our fair share of cold snaps
this winter season, and tomorrow (Friday) will be no exception
after the next Arctic front pushes through. A large factor
driving all this cold weather has been the Polar Vortex
displaced from the North Pole, with a tendency for the vortex to
find itself over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. With
displacement that far south, we`ve gotten plenty of cold air,
but it`s also nudged the storm track south of our area for many
of the recent events. If you`ve ever heard people say "it`s too
cold to snow", it`s not that it`s physically too cold to snow,
it usually just means that the storm track has shifted far
enough to the south that we end up under dry high pressure while
our temps are cold.

One key difference this time is the influence of a Pacific
storm, located off the coast of southern California this
evening, and a strengthening subtropical jet to its south. Over
the next 24 hours these features will cross the Baja Peninsula
of Mexico and then into Texas. Southwesterly flow out ahead of
this southern stream feature will pump warmer air into the Gulf
Coast and Southeastern US Saturday night into Sunday. At the
same time, a northern stream shortwave trough coming down from
western Canada into the Great Plains will bring a reinforcing
shot of cold air to the back side of the northern longwave
trough. The increasing temperature gradients will result in an
overall increase in wind speed aloft at jet stream altitude, and
an amplification of the northern stream trough and ridge. By
Sunday, the right entrance region of the northern jet and the
left exit region of the southern jet will align to produce
enhanced upward motion through the troposphere. Remaining
uncertainty in the forecast largely depends on the degree of
phasing of these two jets, the angle at which they align, and
how much amplification there is of the ridge out ahead of the
deepening trough.

The very cold air in place ahead of this system also plays other
crucial roles to increase impacts. At 00Z Sunday, model
consensus depicts a 1040+ mb high over New York State, which
only slowly moves northeastward across New England over the next
24 hours. The deep, cold blocking high to the northeast of a
winter storm is a textbook feature that supplies a stream of
cold air down the Alleghenies and provides a cold dome for
warmer, less dense air parcels streaming in from the southwest
to ascend over. That upward motion is key to production of
hydrometeors - in this case snow. And then there is the key role
that cold temperatures have on ice crystal habits. The so
called "dendritic growth zone" exists where temperatures are
between roughly 0F and 10F. Given low temperatures Saturday
night in the single digits, some spots might start off with a
DGZ that extends from the ground up 10,000 to 15,000 feet which
is pretty remarkable for a large synoptic storm in this region.
As long as the column saturates quickly enough, any snow that
falls late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning could be
very high ratio, fluffy, rapidly accumulating snow that
consists of many pristine dendrites (SLRs 15-20:1, could be
even higher if the column saturates faster but there is dry air
at low levels to overcome at onset). So after a few hours of
virga, accumulations have the potential to begin with a
vengeance in the predawn hours Sunday, especially from I-80
south.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures
and subzero wind chills expected next Monday all the way through
next weekend.

A prolonged stretch of frigid temperatures continues next week
through the end of January (next weekend). After the cold snap
Fri night - Sat, the next round of cold wx headlines (-10 to -20F
wind chills) is likely Monday night through Tuesday morning.
Given the prolonged nature of the bitter cold, we may begin to
see more infrastructure impacts (frozen pipes) by next week.

Occasional lake effect/upslope snow showers are likely next week
under a very cold cyclonic flow aloft.