Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

[Chicago916]

Much like the November event, mostly graupel snow by me

[A-L-E-K]

 

[A-L-E-K]

13 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

wait 5 minutes

visibility dropping under 1/4 mile under this 40 dbz stuff, v nice 

[tuanis]

Solid Wednesday morning surprise. The kids are amped.

[DocATL]

Does this bode well for Saturday?


.

[Chicago Storm]

well, this was unexpected.

[Chicago Storm]

one day when nws offices figure the snow squall warning thing out, they’ll issue one for instances such as this.

[DocATL]

NW Indiana about to get shellacked


.

[A-L-E-K]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

one day when nws offices figure the snow squall warning thing out, they’ll issue one for instances such as this.

perfect rush hour timing on this one too

[Chicago Storm]

perfect rush hour timing on this one too

yep.

timing + burst of heavier + reduced vis + wind.

it should be a slam dunk for one.

ARR is gusting to 56MPH.

[ILSNOW]

one of the better 30-45 minutes burst of snow and wind in a long time.

[DocATL]

There is a lesson here for dumb guys like me. Models can only do so much.


.

[A-L-E-K]

could legit be our event of the month

[Baum]

18 hours ago, DocATL said:

GFS has a decent event this weekend. Euro is dusterville. Euro feels right.

Pessimist. 

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

one of the better 30-45 minutes burst of snow and wind in a long time.

If ever there was a moment for Snow Squall Warning this was it. Opportunity missed.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

If ever there was a moment for Snow Squall Warning this was it. Opportunity missed.

Dropping a SWS for a bitching snow squall. If only we had something tailored specifically for this…

[A-L-E-K]

12z hrrr selling nearly 40 inch in nw indiana

[Chicago Storm]

now they issue a snow squall warning with it exiting the metro.

talk about late to the party. inept idiots.

[ILSNOW]

eye balling 2-3 inches here worst is over

[sbnwx85]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

now they issue a snow squall warning with it exiting the metro.

talk about late to the party. inept idiots.

They were all over the Special Marine warning tho...

[sbnwx85]

10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

12z hrrr selling nearly 40 inch in nw indiana

Several models dumping at least 20". 

There aren't any mesolows on the models disrupting the band, aka moving it around, so wherever it parks has a real shot at 2 feet.

IWX mentions land breeze may cause the band to drift, but not too drastically. They also mention two dominant bands. With my luck, I'll end up in between the two.

Snow rates will likely exceed 2" per hour overnight and this will be at least 20:1 ratio stuff, maybe as high as 30:1.

Things will get out of hand quickly underneath the main band. High risk, high-reward setup.

Edit: Also winds will be gusting 35-45 mph... could make for a real big mess.

[A-L-E-K]

had to clear all the boats out of the playpen

[RCNYILWX]

now they issue a snow squall warning with it exiting the metro.

talk about late to the party. inept idiots.

Don't change bro

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[A-L-E-K]

lol

[Chicago Storm]

Don't change bro

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

you too, cupcake.

[Chicago916]

Now if we can get another arctic impulse to perfectly hit at let's say Sunday at 7pm that would be great.

[A-L-E-K]

fwiw we're lucky to have u both posting, even if joe is somewhat of an acquired taste

[sbnwx85]

Yeah, I've learned a lot from both guys

[RCNYILWX]

For those who prefer not to bash given the challenges of these, there was a debate in the office when I was about to leave re. SQW. It's not as simple as just pushing a button.

There's a specific criteria for visibility of less than one quarter mile that wasn't really being met at the ob sites as the squall moved through areas farther north. For that reason, there was active discussion including Gino Izzi (lead forecaster), our WCM, and the other lead that had just arrived on the best way to handle things. I personally weighed in on the side of issuing a SQW for downstream areas right before I left.

From a lead time perspective, I'm happy I put out a SPS at 4:50am when it wasn't exactly clear how it would go and a graphic heads up. We also made a social media post last njght that gave a heads up. I thought something like this might be possible, if you read back to AFDs from past few early mornings, but this definitely overperformed and has been a top tier squall for this area.

Ultimately, yes, we could have issued a SQW earlier that included the rest of the metro, but I think we gave a heads up about adverse conditions and got some lead time with the SQW for the south burbs and points south and east. For very tough forecasts, you win aspects of it, lose some, and learn and apply it to future similar scenarios.

Thankfully the roads weren't too bad for most of my drive back home - only starting getting worse traction once almost into Naperville from north Bolingbrook.

Edit: I guess the app really didn't like me trying to type out less than one quarter mile visibility with a less than symbol and numbers lol

[Chicago Storm]

For those who prefer not to bash given the challenges of these, there was a debate in the office when I was about to leave re. SQW. It's not as simple as just pushing a button.

There's a specific criteria for visibility of less than one quarter mile that wasn't really being met at the ob sites as the squall moved through areas farther north. For that reason, there was active discussion including Gino Izzi (lead forecaster), our WCM, and the other lead that had just arrived on the best way to handle things. I personally weighed in on the side of issuing a SQW for downstream areas right before I left.

From a lead time perspective, I'm happy I put out a SPS at 4:50am when it wasn't exactly clear how it would go and a graphic heads up. We also made a social media post last njght that gave a heads up. I thought something like this might be possible, if you read back to AFDs from past few early mornings, but this definitely overperformed and has been a top tier squall for this area.

Ultimately, yes, we could have issued a SQW earlier that included the rest of the metro, but I think we gave a heads up about adverse conditions and got some lead time with the SQW for the south burbs and points south and east. For very tough forecasts, you win aspects of it, lose some, and learn and apply it to future similar scenarios.

Thankfully the roads weren't too bad for most of my drive back home - only starting getting worse traction once almost into Naperville from north Bolingbrook.

to be clear, i’m not hating on the lead up… few to none got that right.

i’m hating on the in the moment.