SteelCity87 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I've gotten very good at tempering expectations between snow and sports. I've been telling myself to expect 8-12" but I'll go with 12 imby 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago AGC has a bad case of Herpes .. still snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, colonel717 said: AGC has a bad case of Herpes .. still snowing. Apparently its a pretty good model once you get to short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro before I go to bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Radar versus their latest run. NAM too far north with mix line, RGEM and HRRR too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro is glorious . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, MikeB_01 said: Euro is glorious . To be honest every model was glorious. None had less than 12 inches. A couple with 20. Let's go for 2 ft in the morning runs... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Still up just perusing but looks like a good 10”+ for the area. Glad to have a warning this close - tired of WAA’s this is a win in my book no matter how it plays out - how many times have we gotten a WWA and 100 miles each way get hammered. Glad to be splitting the difference. Just enjoy it, take it in and live the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago i know that I am alone, but im here for the 06z HRRR. Its running... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago i know that I am alone, but im here for the 06z HRRR. Its running...I'm up. Haven't slept much this week anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: I'm up. Haven't slept much this week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago honestly, 24 hrs in, the HRRR looks a lot like the euro. Less juicy for some reason, but so far tracking very similarly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Similar to the 00z HRRR and got some warmer air up into PA. AGC holds on for another solid run. G'night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago in case you wanted to see it really close up for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NBM is finally working again. Average precip on the 1 UTC run is 0.88" equating to a mean of 11.4" of snow. Spread is 11 to 15 between Saturday and Sunday. 70% chance of >12", 96% chance of >8" (which is somewhat nutty). That's all at PIT; odds are slightly better at AGC, actually, because of the presumably better rates. 74% and 97%, respectively. Non-snow peak odds are later on Sunday at 11% chance of rain compared to 78% chance of snow. I'm guessing that's picked up mostly by the group of mesos that are showing a warm tongue/small dry slot. I still don't like how close the primary comes to our area. Typically, when that does happen, we change over south of the city. The thermal profiles on all the models check out, but I guess it depends how much you trust them to handle the microclimate. Bufkits for NAM and GFS are all snow at AGC. Between 10" and 13" depending on the run. Ratios aren't great, so any improvement there means more accumulation. 0Z NAM actually barely gets above 10:1 the entire duration. Max is 12:1 except for a brief period of 21:1 at the tail end on 1.33" of QPF (high). That's why storm total is "only" twelve inches. If I had to do a first call, I'd probably go a little conservative on the southern regions of Allegheny, Washington, Greene, and Fayette (Mon Valley): 8" to 14" - 6" to 8" at MGW, less points south - 10" to 14" city points north. Any mesoscale banding that takes place has a significant impact on localized totals because of convergence and associated divergence. Could see lollipops of 16" somewhere in the coverage area. It's arguably low for city-south, but perhaps I'm paranoid. Too many years in MGW. I might adjust that upward tomorrow as more mesos come into confidence range. I think closer to the 8" figure if there's mix/sleet, closer to 14" if there's a clean hit. I still don't necessarily trust the models on thermals assuming the northern progression of the primary low is correct. I'll revisit this thought after the storm. Anyway, just my word vomit. It's 3 AM, give me a break! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Years ago, before I met my late wife and moved to South Park, and later Bethel Park, I grew up and lived in Westmoreland County. If you know where New Stanton is, about 5 or 10 minutes from there. Usually when a big storm like this would hit the area, I would almost always get more snow, and usually quite a bit more, than Pittsburgh and Allegheny County. After moving to the South Hills, and storms hit, my parents would always tell me they got more than me. Looks like here is one rare instance where I may get more than them for a change IF that warmer air gets to them and cuts their totals down some. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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