MikeB_01 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NAM trending the right way. Southern energy south of earlier models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Even where the warm tongue does sneak into PA, it seems to be snuffed out quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, TimB said: Even where the warm tongue does sneak into PA, it seems to be snuffed out quickly. And its east. Sorry ChalkHill but he will still get crushed too. Foot plus all around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NAM seems to have lessened the warm tongue. Some good news to start my day. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, colonel717 said: this path seems pretty close to the snowfall maps from the NWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Mailman said: NAM seems to have lessened the warm tongue. Some good news to start my day. NAM looks great for everyone! Hopefully we see the CMC and Euro lose it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago icon running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is great news-hope the trend continues!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Its snows from around 9pm Saturday into Monday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Its snows from around 9pm Saturday into Monday evening. Absurd lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Geez! That’s a good run. This might really happen guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Ahoff said: Geez! That’s a good run. This might really happen guys! Weird, my excitement was tempered and then getting NAM'd got me excited like you said, this could really happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like ICON is going to jump up our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Geez! That’s a good run. This might really happen guys! 2 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Weird, my excitement was tempered and then getting NAM'd got me excited like you said, this could really happen. 36 hrs til the first flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Best 6 hour frame on Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Snowfall depth positive change looks solid too. Maybe some sleet contamination over the Laurels? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Here's what snow depths could look like after the storm according to the 12z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Everything seems to be holding serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, TimB said: Everything seems to be holding serve. If not improving esp with the WTOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago If you look at thermal profiles, you have the EURO/Canadian/NAM in one camp and the GFS in the other. The 6Z Euro was a slight step colder to a bunch of previous runs, as were the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM. Most of the models bring the 850s and surface temps above freezing up to Morgantown, while the GFS remains the most progressive with the transfer. Really, that transfer to the coastal low taking over as the primary is the key element regarding our thermal progression. If the primary low inland continues to dominate longer and maintains a northward push, that's how we get the warm tongue. The depth of the antecedent cold air should give us an advantage. The overall blocking is limited, though, which is why we're even talking about this. I guess you'd typically take a blend and cut the middle road, which should still keep PIT and most of the surrounding areas snow, but with the GFS kind of on an island, you'd take a bit less of it. I think Morgantown is a much trickier forecast. They could end up with 6" of pure snow and then a mix to rain. Either way, NWS will have to revise totals down for some of West Virginia, I think. GFS is the only model that keeps the state fully frozen. I don't think I'll be totally comfortable until we get most of the high-res models in range. It's a very delicate microclimate feature for our area. Those of you north of the city proper have nothing to worry about, though. The only other question is snowfall enhancement with the passing of the upper level trough after the main vort is through. Next weekend has potential, too, but it's a bridge too far right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago Maybe this squall line can stay together as it heads south and we get brief heavy squall later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago GFS looks to get snow in a little earlier than 6z. Its a crusher but moves so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Maybe this squall line can stay together as it heads south and we get brief heavy squall later this afternoon Doubt we would see much more than clouds and some flurries even if it does hold together with this very dry airmass (dewpoints near zero). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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