Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

I'll look forward to watching the Pens as the 0z comes out.

[Rd9108]

Its over start of the the south trend. It was fun while it lasted....

[MikeB_01]

Its over start of the the south trend. It was fun while it lasted....

Hang in there. Might need the detour sign again tonight if things start going backwards.

Still lots of time.


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[Rd9108]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Hang in there. Might need the detour sign again tonight if things start going backwards.

Still lots of time.


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Lmao totally not serious fyi

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

NWS Pgh discussion

https://x.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/2014086973758025897

[southpark]

17 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

It aligned with those fail of the eps that missed to the south.  4-5 inches for AGC

I would rather have that than too far north and we mix.

[colonel717]

GEFS came north

[colonel717]

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

24 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Honestly, I'd have been more concerned if it showed primary going up 79.

Absolutely brother!

[colonel717]

Ukie only goes out to 66 hrs so here is comparison to 12z

[colonel717]

[Mailman]

Definitely a good sign when PBZ is discussing contingency plans. 

[jwilson]

Rare instance where the OP GFS will lead the ensembles, but the GFS has been all over the place so it's incredibly hard to trust no matter which way it goes.  Frustrating model.

[jwilson]

For what it's worth, 19 UTC NBM pretty much held serve from 13 UTC.

Mean is 10.4", 73% chance of 6" or more, 63% chance of 8" or more, 36% chance of 12" or more.  4% chance of a historic level event (18"+).

The spread has narrowed a bit, 6" to 13" (floor is up a couple inches).  If the GFS leads us downward, that would be quite the bust considering all guidance right now, but I suppose it remains a possibility.  Better plan for it.

[colonel717]

18z EURO 13inches

[Ahoff]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

18z EURO 13inches

Sounds good!  The NAM at 84 looked like a good start, no?

[north pgh]

1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

It aligned with those fail of the eps that missed to the south.  4-5 inches for AGC

Something just doesn’t look right on the 18GFS. Look at the precip shield cutoff at the Indiana state line. I expect it to come back tonight. (Hope) Fingers crossed 

[southpark]

11 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Something just doesn’t look right on the 18GFS. Look at the precip shield cutoff at the Indiana state line. I expect it to come back tonight. (Hope) Fingers crossed 

I think the GEFS was more north than the GFS. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Icy on my back patio. Watch for slick spots tonight.

[Rd9108]

Hard to say what the NAM would do since it stops but at hour 84 looks like there's still plenty of precip to come. Its definitely south with the heavier returns. Looks like the NAM held back energy and didnt quite fast phase it quick enough. 

[SteelCity87]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Icy on my back patio. Watch for slick spots tonight.

I live on a hilly brick road that I couldn't make it up. Definitely some dangerous spots out there. 

[Mailman]

ICON is solid, if you're into that model.  

[MikeB_01]

ICON is solid, if you're into that model.  

I’m into any model that shows what I want it to show me.


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[Burghblizz]

Icon is a mauling. 15”-20”  forum wide with tongue back in WV where it belongs. 

[Mailman]

[colonel717]

19 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I’m into any model that shows what I want it to show me.


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It's shows 19 inches SAGC. I never see Icon as snowy model. 

[Rd9108]

Rgem looks good

[MikeB_01]

13 minutes ago, Mailman said:

 

Just now, colonel717 said:

It's shows 19 inches SAGC. I never see Icon as snowy model. 

 

Inject it straight into my veins...

[colonel717]

RGEM had full phase. Will see what CMC shows.