jwilson Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Perhaps I regret saying this, but I don't necessarily mind an overamped look with four days to go. A typical trend is to see these de-amplify as we get closer (say within 24-48 hours). The Canadian is especially guilty of overpowering primary low pressures. I'd give it another couple days before accepting that solution. It is running into a rather stout cold-air source. The NBM, meanwhile, continues to tick upwards on snowfall means. Last three runs have increased from 6.7" to 7.4" and then 10.2" on the 13 UTC run. Continues the trend from yesterday. Odds of more than 12" have gone up to 30%; 62% chance of 8" or more. That's increased from a mere 4% overnight for the former. If any de-amplification occurs, however, those odds will decrease. Mean spread is currently 4" to 13" plus maybe a little more on the backend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, colonel717 said: No CMC keep that warm nose away. Uggh mix right over Bethel Park. and SAGC. Seems that CMC always does best sniffing out warm layers. Hope its wrong. Still did well. I would be more than happy with 10-12 inches. But that’s the warmest of the guidance and still brings double digit snows. Sometimes that solution would be the “one in our camp” knowing that we are going to lose it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago After the weekend potential storm there has been a pretty good clipper showing up next Wed/Thursday. Then GFS has another big one the following weekend. Its a trip, trip, triple phaser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, colonel717 said: After the weekend potential storm there has been a pretty good clipper showing up next Wed/Thursday. not to mention some snow on our doorstep right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Don’t like that. We know where that line ends up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: not to mention some snow on our doorstep right now Ha ha forgot about that. It is starting to darken up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Mailman said: yuck.. Lets hope that is the Ukie doing ukie things. Very curious to see the GEFS and the EPS. How many members of those are starting to cut up the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: yuck.. Lets hope that is the Ukie doing ukie things. Very curious to see the GEFS and the EPS. How many members of those are starting to cut up the apps? Definitely a known bias. And again I have to think the with the majority of the guidance still with plenty of room to the south, I don’t hate it. Let’s smell the sleet and take a swing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Always remember midrange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago That ratcheted up quickly. Nice. 28 degrees so all should stick. Radar showing mix but all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Ha ha forgot about that. It is starting to darken up. Good problem to have, so many snow chances you can't follow them all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Good problem to have, so many snow chances you can't follow them all! Hard not to get focused on models but just need to focus on the now. Enjoy the snow and worry about model later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 48 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Don’t like that. We know where that line ends up. Fortunately, it's the UKMET, so it's probably way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago More winter storm watches issued...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Weather channel is up to 9-17” for point and click! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: More winter storm watches issued...... Charleston on that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, PghPirates27 said: More winter storm watches issued...... Crazy almost 4 days away. I just hope there is no rug pull. We have seen storms this range go poof too many times. Also snow looks to be back building on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Crazy almost 4 days away. I just hope there is no rug pull. We have seen storms this range go poof too many times. Also snow looks to be back building on radar. 72 hours is a freaking lifetime away in model land. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AI is 10 inches without ratios. Ill take my chances with that look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Seems Euro stays all snow from the PA/WV line northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: Seems Euro stays all snow from the PA/WV line northward. I think we have to be careful with rooting for the more amped looks. Cant let that warm nose sniff the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: I think we have to be careful with rooting for the more amped looks. Cant let that warm nose sniff the area. exactly. I'd love to smell the sleet, but don't actually want to be in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I think we have to be careful with rooting for the more amped looks. Cant let that warm nose sniff the area. Yep, because if it's modeled close to the border, it'll make its way up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What’s our bar on “anything less than this amount would be a disaster”? I’m thinking 8”, but I’d be tempted to go 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, TimB said: What’s our bar on “anything less than this amount would be a disaster”? I’m thinking 8”, but I’d be tempted to go 6. As of today with today's guidance im saying 6 but if it looks like this friday and we get under 8 then that's a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago I said last night that I will go in with the mindset that I'll take a 6" snowfall and anything more is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, Mailman said: I said last night that I will go in with the mindset that I'll take a 6" snowfall and anything more is a bonus. Definitely a good mindset when it comes to this hobby. We know how fast the rug pull can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now