jwilson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Perhaps I regret saying this, but I don't necessarily mind an overamped look with four days to go. A typical trend is to see these de-amplify as we get closer (say within 24-48 hours). The Canadian is especially guilty of overpowering primary low pressures. I'd give it another couple days before accepting that solution. It is running into a rather stout cold-air source. The NBM, meanwhile, continues to tick upwards on snowfall means. Last three runs have increased from 6.7" to 7.4" and then 10.2" on the 13 UTC run. Continues the trend from yesterday. Odds of more than 12" have gone up to 30%; 62% chance of 8" or more. That's increased from a mere 4% overnight for the former. If any de-amplification occurs, however, those odds will decrease. Mean spread is currently 4" to 13" plus maybe a little more on the backend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, colonel717 said: No CMC keep that warm nose away. Uggh mix right over Bethel Park. and SAGC. Seems that CMC always does best sniffing out warm layers. Hope its wrong. Still did well. I would be more than happy with 10-12 inches. But that’s the warmest of the guidance and still brings double digit snows. Sometimes that solution would be the “one in our camp” knowing that we are going to lose it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago After the weekend potential storm there has been a pretty good clipper showing up next Wed/Thursday. Then GFS has another big one the following weekend. Its a trip, trip, triple phaser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, colonel717 said: After the weekend potential storm there has been a pretty good clipper showing up next Wed/Thursday. not to mention some snow on our doorstep right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Don’t like that. We know where that line ends up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: not to mention some snow on our doorstep right now Ha ha forgot about that. It is starting to darken up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Mailman said: yuck.. Lets hope that is the Ukie doing ukie things. Very curious to see the GEFS and the EPS. How many members of those are starting to cut up the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: yuck.. Lets hope that is the Ukie doing ukie things. Very curious to see the GEFS and the EPS. How many members of those are starting to cut up the apps? Definitely a known bias. And again I have to think the with the majority of the guidance still with plenty of room to the south, I don’t hate it. Let’s smell the sleet and take a swing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Always remember midrange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago That ratcheted up quickly. Nice. 28 degrees so all should stick. Radar showing mix but all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 25 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Ha ha forgot about that. It is starting to darken up. Good problem to have, so many snow chances you can't follow them all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Good problem to have, so many snow chances you can't follow them all! Hard not to get focused on models but just need to focus on the now. Enjoy the snow and worry about model later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 48 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Don’t like that. We know where that line ends up. Fortunately, it's the UKMET, so it's probably way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago More winter storm watches issued...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago Weather channel is up to 9-17” for point and click! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted 37 minutes ago Author Share Posted 37 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: More winter storm watches issued...... Charleston on that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 1 minute ago, PghPirates27 said: More winter storm watches issued...... Crazy almost 4 days away. I just hope there is no rug pull. We have seen storms this range go poof too many times. Also snow looks to be back building on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, colonel717 said: Crazy almost 4 days away. I just hope there is no rug pull. We have seen storms this range go poof too many times. Also snow looks to be back building on radar. 72 hours is a freaking lifetime away in model land. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted 3 minutes ago Share Posted 3 minutes ago AI is 10 inches without ratios. Ill take my chances with that look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted just now Share Posted just now Seems Euro stays all snow from the PA/WV line northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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