E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gfs probably too cold on the southern side of this, could be a nice swfe for burbs and nyc though

Cmc and ukie has it but its flatter.

Gefs on board

[zenmsav6810]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is on a hot streak. Are you sure you want to question it?

If the Euro is Lucy, then the GFS is Charlie Brown. Linus is the CMC and Snoopy is the NAM! 

[The Iceman]

Yesterday’s storm makes this seasons total 49.3” #3 in my lifetime(1990-1991 was my first winter) behind 2010 and 1996. Both are out of reach but still this winter’s snowfall ranks ahead of many greats like 17-18, 13-14, 10-11, 02-03 in Levittown. 
 

edit: actually if the gfs comes to fruition we’d make a run at 2009-2010 here. That winter finished with 63.2” here.

edit 2: looking at my dads records back to 1977, this season ranks #4. 77-78 we had 57”. 

[Birds~69]

Just now, The Iceman said:

Yesterday’s storm makes this seasons total 49.3” #3 in my lifetime(1990-1991 was my first winter) behind 2010 and 1996. Both are out of reach but still this winter’s snowfall ranks ahead of many greats like 17-18, 13-14, 10-11, 02-03 in Levittown. 

It's no more than a "A" winter in my book. The drought of snow from Jan 23/25th to Feb 23/25th (Peak winter) with all that cold in place is why it will never be a A+. That is like your All Star batter belting .340 during the season then batting .250 during the playoffs. (Peak time) Sorry winter "A+" is for the elite...not failing at peak times.

28F @ 1:05PM/ Winds cranking a bit, colder than expected and thank God the Liquor store is open... 

[Duca892]

6 hours ago, Duca892 said:

If you followed IMO a seasonal trend of storms trending south before back north next week looks pretty darn ok at the moment for a Snow to Ice to Rain scenario with the GS. Especially if it bumps south before coming back up north 

And literally just like that the 12Z GFS shifted south into a weenie level end of season snow 

[The Iceman]

10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

It's no more than a "A" winter in my book. The drought of snow from Jan 23/25th to Feb 23/25th (Peak winter) with all that cold in place is why it will never be a A+. That is like your All Star batter belting .340 during the season then batting .250 during the playoffs. (Peak time) Sorry winter "A+" is for the elite...not failing at peak times.

28F @ 1:05PM/ Winds cranking a bit, colder than expected and thank God the Liquor store is open... 

above average snowfall each month dec-Jan-Feb has only happened in like one or two other winters other than this one, we were just talking about that last week.

[JTA66]

That's why I'm usually hesitant to root for arctic cold -- it's tends to be a dry regime suppressing storms to our south. At least we got a good storm going in so we had snow cover for weeks on end. There have been years where is just frozen, bare ground. 

[Duca892]

Am I sitting here waiting for the 18z GFS for next week? You bet your ass I am 

[Duca892]

18z GFS brings the Thursday Night quick hitter back north 

[Duca892]

Still there next week. Moved more North so definitely warmer, but if that low is about 50-75mi south it would be a paste job 

[Duca892]

This place is going to be popping if this chance for early next week is here at 12z tomorrow. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

18z GFS brings the Thursday Night quick hitter back north 

Gefs on board

[Duca892]

GFS has Thursday System, 3/2-3/3 System, and then follows it up with a quick hitter on 3/4 lmfao. Give me a nice warning level snow to close out the year and we can move onto Spring 

[The Iceman]

That March 2nd-3rd thing is looking like the last threat for winter. 2nd week of March 500 MB on the long range ensembles argues for true warmth not just slightly above normal. That is if we don't get can kicked again as this was showing up long range last month too. 

[MJO812]

Euro would be nice

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro would be nice

Atmospheric river

[Heisy]

Yea that was going to be a nice run for Philly.

All comes down to timing of that pac wave that’s leaking energy and the N/S. Won’t know for a few days

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Atmospheric river

Further south than the 12z run

[Ralph Wiggum]

48 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea that was going to be a nice run for Philly.

All comes down to timing of that pac wave that’s leaking energy and the N/S. Won’t know for a few days

I know it won't look a thing like that map in 144 hrs, but the precip extending from Cali to the NJ coast is a sight to behold.

[Duca892]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know it won't look a thing like that map in 144 hrs, but the precip extending from Cali to the NJ coast is a sight to behold.

Ralph you think the Monday/Tuesday system has a real shot? Would love one last Winter Storm Warning

[LVblizzard]

Well that Thursday threat disappeared quickly. It was never going to be anything big but a little burst of snow would have been nice. Crazy to think some models had it in upstate NY two days ago…now it’s suppressed to the south.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[LVblizzard]

AI GFS would certainly be something if it verified.

[MJO812]

Mid atlantic hit on euro

[Duca892]

Fun to have maybe one last SECS/MECS to track at least for now. 6z GFS rolls in 10

[Duca892]

GFS is just pure SEX

[Duca892]

10-14hr storm on the GFS next week but it would be the perfect cap on a great winter. 12z suite I expect things to pick up in here a bit more

[Duca892]

Stolen from our MA friends 

[Physicsteve]

Been snowing since 5, maybe 1/4” otg with heavier returns on the doorstep as the finale.