E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Duca892]

My expectation is that the GFS caves to EURO at some point but it pulled a really classic lose storm and bring it back for this one 

[Rnt1969]

I agree the GFS is on another planet. I’m predicting by [emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]z today it ends up in the camp with the EURO.


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[Newman]

29 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS man is so close to being an absolute nuke for all it remains consistent with a 6-12in storm from LV to Philly and BOMB in NJ. 

Just for fun

[Fields27]

GFS man is so close to being an absolute nuke for all it remains consistent with a 6-12in storm from LV to Philly and BOMB in NJ. 

Off to a good start today. Models should start honing in on a solution today. Would be nice to trend in the right direction this close to gametime for once.

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[Newman]

GEFS continues to tick better. Gets the 0.5" QPF line just SE of Philly

[Duca892]

3 minutes ago, Newman said:

Just for fun

I will go wild for a surprise 6z EURO support lmfao 

[coastal front]

I made the mistake of looking at my phone during my early morning bathroom trip. Gfs has shown 30” for the last 36 hours it’s insane. Granted no one expects that but let’s hope guidance across the board just ticks better. 90 hours of ticks and we are all gonna be happy 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

6z GFS is the best run since the Canadian a few days ago. Wow! Tucks it right into the delmarva

RGEM is tucked so much that it's rain to start all.the way to the LV. 

[Newman]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM is tucked so much that it's rain to start all.the way to the LV. 

That's also just a product of the poor airmass we have ahead of the system. It wouldn't shock me if places started as rain, especially along the coast, before the system gets wound up. Assuming this system does impact, of course.

[Duca892]

ICON and EUROAI are bleh

[anthonyweather]

6z GFS is the best run since the Canadian a few days ago. Wow! Tucks it right into the delmarva

Seems like a perfect time to start a thread


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[anthonyweather]

Euro is better, but you’re relying on an IVT.


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[Voyager]

4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Seems like a perfect time to start a thread


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Who knows? Perhaps a thread would be a reverse jinx this time around, and the entire region gets nuked...lol

[Heisy]

Euro runs the southern pva out too far SE early on even though the N shortwave looks 10x better. GFS on an island is never a good place to be.

[Newman]

At the upper levels, the 6z Euro continues to make big leaps towards a more consolidated trough like the GFS. I know the surface may not reflect these changes yet (outside of the IVT), but it's getting there. The difference between the GFS and Euro right now is the GFS tilts that trough neutral through the Ohio Valley and the Euro keeps it positive 6-12 hours longer.

[Heisy]

Euro runs the southern pva out too far SE early on even though the N shortwave looks 10x better. GFS on an island is never a good place to be.

[Newman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It was definitely improved though. I think we'll ultimately end up meeting in the middle between the GFS and Euro with a modest coastal scraper. Maybe the IVT gives some surprises for those inland.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

I will go wild for a surprise 6z EURO support lmfao 

Most of us would. But it feel like we've been led down this road a few times already this season where the GFS/GEFS go against concensus and move towards something bigger while the other models slowly move to the Euro. Then when we are within 3 days the GFS stubbornly and slowly moves away from the big storm. Im hoping we are not seeing this again here, so I am being cautious with this one.

[Heisy]

Most of us would. But it feel like we've been led down this road a few times already this season where the GFS/GEFS go against concensus and move towards something bigger while the other models slowly move to the Euro. Then when we are within 3 days the GFS stubbornly and slowly moves away from the big storm. Im hoping we are not seeing this again here, so I am being cautious with this one.

We are seeing the same thing. In our hearts we know where it’s headed today lol. The IVT wouldn’t work for the city, NW it could, closer you are to the city though more BL temp issues

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We are seeing the same thing. In our hearts we know where it’s headed today lol. The IVT wouldn’t work for the city, NW it could, closer you are to the city though more BL temp issues

When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes. 

[MickeyTim6533]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes. 

who?

[anthonyweather]

When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes. 

It’s tough with Facebook anymore. Everything is monetized and every weather page constantly posts nonsense, their thoughts, every model. It all brings views and in turn monetization.

I don’t trust anyone or anything.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, anthonyweather said:

It’s tough with Facebook anymore. Everything is monetized and every weather page constantly posts nonsense, their thoughts, every model. It all brings views and in turn monetization.

I don’t trust anyone or anything.


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I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.

[anthonyweather]

I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.

Just about every on air met is doing it now, it’s maddening


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