RodneyS Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 RIC added 2.0 inches yesterday, IAD added 0.3, and DCA added 0.1. @Chris78needs just another 0.2 at DCA to take the lead; see below updated table. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Yesterday IAD added another 0.1 inch of snow with just a trace of precipitation. The situation at BWI is murky because both February 6th and 7th also show a trace of precipitation there, but the snow totals for each day are listed as "MM" -- indicating that data are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 So if the PD storm only accumulates at IAD and skunks the rest I could potentially climb a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The BWI snow is missing but somebody found it in Norfolk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 If the GFS is right, almost everyone now in contention for the best forecast will be in the lead for five minutes and hand off to the next person. Only the last two forecasts in the table would have anything left to use up by the end of the storm. If a more conservative outcome is in play, the lead will change to somewhere near my entry. So I feel like I can't lose, either my contest improves, or I get to see the excitement of a major storm unfolding. Win-win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 19 hours ago, Roger Smith said: If the GFS is right, almost everyone now in contention for the best forecast will be in the lead for five minutes and hand off to the next person. Only the last two forecasts in the table would have anything left to use up by the end of the storm. If a more conservative outcome is in play, the lead will change to somewhere near my entry. So I feel like I can't lose, either my contest improves, or I get to see the excitement of a major storm unfolding. Win-win. Your moment may be at hand, Roger, because you are the closest entrant to the lead who still has all positive departures. However, you need to watch your back, with @mappyin position to pick up on you if BWI's total exceeds three inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 23 Author Share Posted February 23 As of 7 AM today, the reported snow totals are: IAD 2.0, BWI 1.9, DCA 1.0, and RIC Trace. Those totals put @Chris78into the lead. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, RodneyS said: As of 7 AM today, the reported snow totals are: IAD 2.0, BWI 1.9, DCA 1.0, and RIC Trace. Those totals put @Chris78into the lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Dang, was banking on BWI getting into the Western edge of a late-developing storm like they did in March 2018. Yesterday was the chance, but the window just passed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 23 Author Share Posted February 23 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Dang, was banking on BWI getting into the Western edge of a late-developing storm like they did in March 2018. Yesterday was the chance, but the window just passed. Another 0.7 at BWI would have put you in the lead, but it still can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 Snow totals for March 2nd were: BWI 1.0, DCA 0.8, and IAD 0.4. Those numbers eliminate several entrants from winning -- in fact only six (in black) of the top 18 remain in contention. @Chris78maintains a narrow lead over @Cobaltwith @Roger Smiththe highest ranking entrant with all positive departures at the four airports. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 The one time I need DCA to put up a pitiful early March daytime measurement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just one more small 2-3" snow area wide should do it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: The one time I need DCA to put up a pitiful early March daytime measurement.. Yup, the snow gods had some fun with you yesterday. The 0.4 at IAD was reported yesterday afternoon, but this morning we woke up to find that was it there, whereas DCA checked in at 0.8. However, another 0.5 at BWI could still win it for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 3 Author Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, wxdude64 said: Just one more small 2-3" snow area wide should do it... If we can get some snow this weekend in 70+ temperatures, you will be in great shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 All I need is one more moderate event. Not looking too good, though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Pretty content with third if this is it. But hope the AIFS is right and I get blown out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Quite an awful showing for my first snowfall contest entry. Will try again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 3 hours ago, bncho said: Quite an awful showing for my first snowfall contest entry. Will try again next year. Don't throw in the towel yet -- Palm Sunday falls on March 29th this year -- the same day that it fell on in 1942: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10565582#google_vignette 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 Quite a day in the Mid-Atlantic -- from summer in the early morning to winter in the late morning. That resulted in the following snow totals today: BWI trace, DCA 0.1, IAD 0.6, and RIC 2.0. As a result, our forecasting guru @Roger Smithis the new leader. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 3 hours ago, RodneyS said: Quite a day in the Mid-Atlantic -- from summer in the early morning to winter in the late morning. That resulted in the following snow totals today: BWI trace, DCA 0.1, IAD 0.6, and RIC 2.0. As a result, our forecasting guru @Roger Smithis the new leader. Son of a bi... Not only did I screwed again up here in Northern MD with no snow but I got screwed with the contest too. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 30 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Son of a bi... Not only did I screwed again up here in Northern MD with no snow but I got screwed with the contest too. Lol. I was looking at @Cobaltas your biggest threat, but BWI seemed to be in a snow hole today while RIC hit the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 FYI, yesterday's DCA snow amount was upgraded from 0.1 to 0.2 inch. Also, yesterday's BWI snow amount is now listed as "missing" rather than a trace, which could mean that amount is being reevaluated. See revised table below: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I just need an advisory level slushfest in Central MD. Still seems possible in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 5 hours ago, 87storms said: I just need an advisory level slushfest in Central MD. Still seems possible in this winter. FYI, this winter thus far has two interesting parallels to the winter of 1989-90 in the Mid-Atlantic. (1) A major consecutive day streak in which the maximum temperature failed to reach the freezing mark at DCA: December 16-25, 1989 and January 24-February 1, 2026 (2) A March mini heat wave in which the maximum temperature soared way above normal at DCA: March 12-16, 1990 maximums were 89, 87, 86, 81 and 81 and March 8-12, 2026 maximums were 76, 76, 84, 86, and 78 So, what happened right after the March 1990 mini heat wave? Several minor snow events between March 20-April 7, 1990 totaling 0.2 inches at RIC, 2.6 at DCA, 2.8 at BWI, and 10.4 at IAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 7 minutes ago, RodneyS said: FYI, this winter thus far has two interesting parallels to the winter of 1989-90 in the Mid-Atlantic. (1) A major consecutive day streak in which the maximum temperature failed to reach the freezing mark at DCA: December 16-25, 1989 and January 24-February 1, 2026 (2) A March mini heat wave in which the maximum temperature soared way above normal at DCA: March 12-16, 1990 maximums were 89, 87, 86, 81 and 81 and March 8-12, 2026 maximums were 76, 76, 84, 86, and 78 So, what happened right after the March 1990 mini heat wave? Several minor snow events between March 20-April 7, 1990 totaling 0.2 inches at RIC, 2.6 at DCA, 2.8 at BWI, and 10.4 at IAD. I don’t want prolonged cold weather, but for the sake of competition, I’m open to a hot vort that slides through southern/central Va with a transient hp overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 On 3/13/2026 at 9:57 AM, RodneyS said: FYI, yesterday's DCA snow amount was upgraded from 0.1 to 0.2 inch. Also, yesterday's BWI snow amount is now listed as "missing" rather than a trace, which could mean that amount is being reevaluated. The reevaluation has now been completed and is just what the doctor ordered for @Cobalt. BWI's Thursday snow total has been revised from a trace to 1.0 inch, which makes perfect sense -- the hourly observations there on Thursday listed "heavy snow" and a temperature of 33.1 degrees at 13:54 and "light snow" and that same temperature at 14:54, with precipitation during those two hours totaling 0.19 inches. An inch of snow therefore translates into a snow/precipitation ratio of 5.3, which is reasonable with a wet snow. On the other hand, only a trace of snow with those hourly observations would have been close to impossible. So Cobalt is our new leader, but @Roger Smithremains in strong condition; see below. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago On 2/20/2026 at 6:26 PM, Roger Smith said: If the GFS is right, almost everyone now in contention for the best forecast will be in the lead for five minutes and hand off to the next person. Only the last two forecasts in the table would have anything left to use up by the end of the storm. If a more conservative outcome is in play, the lead will change to somewhere near my entry. So I feel like I can't lose, either my contest improves, or I get to see the excitement of a major storm unfolding. Win-win. So saddened to just learn that Roger left us at age 76 four days after this post. He had many forecasting highlights in his life, including nailing with his AccuWeather colleagues the Presidents Day Storm of February 18-19, 1979. And he made his last appearance in this contest his best, as he is currently in 2nd place with a realistic chance to win it. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62666-roger-smith-rip/page/2/#comment-8066399 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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