MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[The Ole Bucket]

Windchill is already subzero here in SEMO. Extremely dry though.

[JoMo]

6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming. 

I think 2nd system might save it. 18z NAM is ejecting it out farther west. 18z HRRR was pretty robust as well. 

[RocketWX]

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area. 

[JoMo]

Weather is so strange sometimes. This is IMBY

2.3" of 10:1 on the 18z NAM with first system... On the 12z NAM it was 6.7"

Somehow ended up with 9.3" of 10:1 on 18z NAM with both systems. On the 12z NAM it was 11". 

Not too bad despite "losing" 4.4" with the first system not hitting.

15.5 Kuchera on 18z NAM and 15.4 Kuchera on 12z NAM so gained 0.1 somehow. 

[RocketWX]

9 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area. 

Update: They already posted it. They definitely call out that the main axis of snowfall has shifted south and east for Saturday night. Now calling for 5-8" for SC KS with Southeast KS approaching 10". Of note 4-6" of that is with the first wave, so they're leaning toward the 2nd wave having minimal impact here. I'll take it, but feels like we'll just miss out on the real fun that south and east of here will get. 

[MoWeatherguy]

18z GFS has amped up snowfall some from its 12z run.  

[stormdragonwx]

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

[MUWX]

12 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

I dont think this storm will bring strong enough sustained winds to see blizzard warnings, but could see some blizzardlike conditions. 

[NWAflizzard]

Radar is impressive over Oklahoma and north Texas. 

[lookingnorth]

There's been some light sleet in Norman, and Google Maps is saying there are travel impacts on I-35 and I-44 south of the OKC metro.

[MUWX]

Already some mPING reports in NW AR and NE OK. Seems those areas might be moistening faster than expected. 

[lookingnorth]

It looks like the OKC area may experience a lull in the snowfall soon.

[stormdragonwx]

Already got 3" here in Fayetteville. Snow is a very fine powder coming down. 

[stormdragonwx]

This is reminding me of that system a couple years ago. Looks like the air is struggling to saturate now. Snow is very fine and light and is blowing around so it's hard to measure. Totals haven't increased much. If the 2nd wave also underperforms later tonight this might be a bust. I will be very surprised if we see 10+ inches in my area like what was being forcasted.

EDIT: Based on current totals and the time frame on the models, it looks like the 10:1 ratio totals may be closer to reality. 

[NWAflizzard]

3 inches here too. Think it may be tough to get to 10 as well. 

[MUWX]

Got about a dusting to a half inch here. Pretty disappointing. 

[stormdragonwx]

The unreliability of the models is incredible for being the day of. They were all incredibly consistent all week up til a few hours ago saying this system is gonna dump on us with a forceful 1+2 punch. HRRR in particular has cut the totals in half in just 6 hours time.

Good ol Lucy with the football as I feared.

[ouamber]

Yikes.... all Mets here in Tulsa are already screaming they were wrong about the first round due to some very dry air from winds out of the northeast basically eating away at the snow that was falling. We have a few inches now and possibly 4-8 later, but the "historic" label was probably overdone for this storm.

[MUWX]

6 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Yikes.... all Mets here in Tulsa are already screaming they were wrong about the first round due to some very dry air from winds out of the northeast basically eating away at the snow that was falling. We have a few inches now and possibly 4-8 later, but the "historic" label was probably overdone for this storm.

I thought it became pretty apparent yesterday that this wasn’t going to be historic, at least up here. The models pretty much universally caved by 12z yesterday. I still have some hope for round 2, but there’s pretty much no chance we break the 10” mark. Round 1 wasn’t my biggest snow of the year, which was impossible. 

[schoeppeya]

Sitting about 2" in south tulsa, I think its going to take a significant overperformance in round 2 to get us to the double digit mark but the radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled so I have hope.

[MoWeatherguy]

4 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Sitting about 2" in south tulsa, I think its going to take a significant overperformance in round 2 to get us to the double digit mark but the radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled so I have hope.

The HRRR is pretty impressive for the next 36 hrs so there's still a chance we get close to double digits. The dry air robbed us some last night, but still picked up 2" here in far NW AR. This won't be a top 10 snow but will be a very nice one when all is said and done. Probably get us to our seasonal average here.

[The Waterboy]

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 241634Z - 242030Z

SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any 12Z guidance and it continues to expand. 

[schoeppeya]

8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 241634Z - 242030Z

SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any 12Z guidance and it continues to expand. 

Thats the precip area I was referencing, pretty impressive on radar

[MoWeatherguy]

7 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 241634Z - 242030Z

SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any 12Z guidance and it continues to expand. 

Hopefully an overachieving performance yet to come 

[JoMo]

That second band has a lot of work to do to reach the 6" mark for a lot of the Springfield CWA. I have doubts. 

[MUWX]

16 minutes ago, JoMo said:

That second band has a lot of work to do to reach the 6" mark for a lot of the Springfield CWA. I have doubts. 

Just a really bad forecast from SGF and most local Mets, it appears. Too early to call it a bust but SGF has reduced their expected totals in not insignificant way already. 

[The Waterboy]

Light snow has been consistent in Bentonville yet the radar shows nothing.  Not sure if that’s a sign of the atmosphere squeezing out any moisture because it’s so cold or if lift is increasing quickly.  

[JoMo]

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Just a really bad forecast from SGF and most local Mets, it appears. Too early to call it a bust but SGF has reduced their expected totals in not insignificant way already. 

Really bad modeling by pretty much all the models. They were definitely producing too much QPF. I still think there's a 25%-75% chance they verify though! Ah probability forecasting, can't be wrong!

[MUWX]

5 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Really bad modeling by pretty much all the models. They were definitely producing too much QPF. I still think there's a 25%-75% chance they verify though! Ah probability forecasting, can't be wrong!

Mets do seem way too reliant on models, its really frustrating.  SGF has dropped me from an expected storm total of 14" to an expected total of 9". They missed last night badly. They put out a graphic that showed 2-5" up here and 2-6" area wide, I woke up to .5" on my back deck and I think half of that had blown off my roof. They just weren't even remotely close on that initial round. Models look pretty good for round 2, but we are going to need some good ratios to do anything impressive, unfortunately, when you are dealing with high ratios a little change in QPF makes huge changes.