MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[The Ole Bucket]

Windchill is already subzero here in SEMO. Extremely dry though.

[JoMo]

6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming. 

I think 2nd system might save it. 18z NAM is ejecting it out farther west. 18z HRRR was pretty robust as well. 

[RocketWX]

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area. 

[JoMo]

Weather is so strange sometimes. This is IMBY

2.3" of 10:1 on the 18z NAM with first system... On the 12z NAM it was 6.7"

Somehow ended up with 9.3" of 10:1 on 18z NAM with both systems. On the 12z NAM it was 11". 

Not too bad despite "losing" 4.4" with the first system not hitting.

15.5 Kuchera on 18z NAM and 15.4 Kuchera on 12z NAM so gained 0.1 somehow. 

[RocketWX]

9 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area. 

Update: They already posted it. They definitely call out that the main axis of snowfall has shifted south and east for Saturday night. Now calling for 5-8" for SC KS with Southeast KS approaching 10". Of note 4-6" of that is with the first wave, so they're leaning toward the 2nd wave having minimal impact here. I'll take it, but feels like we'll just miss out on the real fun that south and east of here will get. 

[MoWeatherguy]

18z GFS has amped up snowfall some from its 12z run.  

[stormdragonwx]

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

[MUWX]

12 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

TSA seems to be jumping on what the GFS is saying too. They upped the totals in the WSW text to 8-14" with local 18" totals. Blowing and drifting snow also expected. Wonder if they will issue Blizzard Warnings? My area has never had one. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TSA&wwa=winter storm warning

I dont think this storm will bring strong enough sustained winds to see blizzard warnings, but could see some blizzardlike conditions. 

[NWAflizzard]

Radar is impressive over Oklahoma and north Texas. 

[lookingnorth]

There's been some light sleet in Norman, and Google Maps is saying there are travel impacts on I-35 and I-44 south of the OKC metro.

[MUWX]

Already some mPING reports in NW AR and NE OK. Seems those areas might be moistening faster than expected. 

[lookingnorth]

It looks like the OKC area may experience a lull in the snowfall soon.

[stormdragonwx]

Already got 3" here in Fayetteville. Snow is a very fine powder coming down. 

[stormdragonwx]

This is reminding me of that system a couple years ago. Looks like the air is struggling to saturate now. Snow is very fine and light and is blowing around so it's hard to measure. Totals haven't increased much. If the 2nd wave also underperforms later tonight this might be a bust. I will be very surprised if we see 10+ inches in my area like what was being forcasted.

EDIT: Based on current totals and the time frame on the models, it looks like the 10:1 ratio totals may be closer to reality. 

[NWAflizzard]

3 inches here too. Think it may be tough to get to 10 as well. 

[MUWX]

Got about a dusting to a half inch here. Pretty disappointing. 

[stormdragonwx]

The unreliability of the models is incredible for being the day of. They were all incredibly consistent all week up til a few hours ago saying this system is gonna dump on us with a forceful 1+2 punch. HRRR in particular has cut the totals in half in just 6 hours time.

Good ol Lucy with the football as I feared.

[ouamber]

Yikes.... all Mets here in Tulsa are already screaming they were wrong about the first round due to some very dry air from winds out of the northeast basically eating away at the snow that was falling. We have a few inches now and possibly 4-8 later, but the "historic" label was probably overdone for this storm.

[MUWX]

6 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Yikes.... all Mets here in Tulsa are already screaming they were wrong about the first round due to some very dry air from winds out of the northeast basically eating away at the snow that was falling. We have a few inches now and possibly 4-8 later, but the "historic" label was probably overdone for this storm.

I thought it became pretty apparent yesterday that this wasn’t going to be historic, at least up here. The models pretty much universally caved by 12z yesterday. I still have some hope for round 2, but there’s pretty much no chance we break the 10” mark. Round 1 wasn’t my biggest snow of the year, which was impossible.